Storm Station
Sign in

Live/Forecast engine/September 29, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

September 29, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 40 airfields, was level at 2,439 and further at 23. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,368 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on September 29, 2026: closer at 40, level at 2,305, further at 23; the 70 panel airports ringed

40 of 2,502 airfields closer than the NBM63 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more23
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F17
  3. level, within 0.1 F2,439
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F11
  5. further by 0.5 F or more12

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 40 of 70, level at 7 and further at 23. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,366 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on September 29, 2026: closer at 34, level at 2,308, further at 24; the 70 panel airports ringed

34 of 2,500 airfields closer than the NBM59 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more17
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F17
  3. level, within 0.1 F2,442
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F8
  5. further by 0.5 F or more16

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 34 of 70, level at 12 and further at 24. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,361 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on September 29, 2026: closer at 35, level at 2,295, further at 31; the 70 panel airports ringed

35 of 2,501 airfields closer than the NBM53 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more13
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph22
  3. level, within 0.1 mph2,435
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph15
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more16

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 35 of 70, level at 4 and further at 31. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,861 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on September 29, 2026: closer at 43, level at 1,801, further at 17; the 70 panel airports ringed

43 of 1,975 airfields closer than the NBM72 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more29
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points14
  3. level, within 1 point1,915
  4. further by 1 to 5 points13
  5. further by 5 points or more4

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 43 of 67, level at 7 and further at 17. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on September 29, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 1.9 F on average, and within 5 F in 95 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.3 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
236,088
Readings checked
116,174
Readings that failed
154
Misses over 10 F
388

Who came closest on September 29, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm StationOn this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it+6.6%Temperature1.9 FDew point1.9 FWind2.5 mphSky cover17.7 points
  2. 2National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database+1.2%Temperature2.1 FDew point1.8 FWind2.7 mphSky cover19.7 points
  3. 3NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.0 FDew point1.9 FWind2.6 mphSky cover21.9 points
  4. 4Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after0.0%Temperature2.0 FDew point1.9 FWind2.6 mphSky cover21.9 points
  5. 5NOAA GFS with HRRRNOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast-15.5%Temperature2.2 FDew point2.6 FWind2.8 mphSky cover22.5 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, September 29, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3----+5.9%-----0.6%----+1.9%----+19.2%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----1.6%----+1.9%-----5.3%----+9.9%
NOAA GFS with HRRRat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----9.4%-----41.3%-----8.1%-----3%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are September 29, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of September 29, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked116,174 readings, 154 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day1,613,201 forecast hoursEach large miss explained388 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned34,650 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 116,174 readings, 154 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 1,613,201 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 388 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 34,650 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 1.90 F, the NBM 2.02 FAhead today by 0.12 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 1.88 F, the NBM 1.87 FBehind today by 0.01 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.52 mph, the NBM 2.56 mphAhead today by 0.05 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 17.68 points, the NBM 21.87 pointsAhead today by 4.19 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it52 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 52Too narrow today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.41 against 0.38, 1 to 6 hours aheadAhead today by 0.03
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.29 against 0.31 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.01
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

September 29, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, September 29, 202601231 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNBMGFS with HRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, September 29, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRNWS forecastStorm StationNBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, September 29, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRNBMCorrectionNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, September 29, 20260102030401 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNBMCorrectionGFS with HRRRNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.1 F warmStorm Station0.3 F coolNWS forecast0.3 F coolGFS with HRRR0.3 F coolCorrection0.1 F warm

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.3 mph strongStorm Station0.3 mph lightNWS forecast0.2 mph strongGFS with HRRR0.7 mph lightCorrection0.3 mph strong

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.5 F moistStorm Station0.4 F dryNWS forecastevenGFS with HRRR0.8 F dryCorrection0.5 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM15.2 points clearStorm Station7.7 points clearNWS forecast13.2 points clearGFS with HRRR2.2 points clearCorrection15.2 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
TJSJ Luis Munoz Marin International AirportPR0.5 F0.1 F cool100-
PAIW Wales AirportAK0.6 F0.2 F warm100-
PANV Anvik AirportAK0.6 Feven100-
PAOU Nelson Lagoon AirportAK0.6 F0.3 F warm100-
PHLI Lihue AirportHI0.6 F0.6 F cool100-
KLRD Laredo International AirportTX0.7 F0.2 F warm100-
KNYG Quantico Marine Corps Airfield / Turner FieldVA0.7 F0.3 F warm92-
KPWM Portland International JetportME0.7 F0.6 F cool79-
PABA Barter Island Long Range Radar Station AirportAK0.7 F0.3 F cool100-
PHNG Kaneohe Bay MCAS (Marion E. Carl Field) AirportHI0.7 F0.5 F warm100-
KPWT Bremerton National AirportWA0.7 F0.3 F cool100-
PAWG Wrangell AirportAK0.7 F0.5 F cool100-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KGVW-15.7 F15.7 F cool100the forecast, at this station 19
KOAR Marina Municipal AirportCA9.0 F9.0 F warm28the station 17, the forecast, at this station 4
KOMK Omak AirportWA7.4 F7.4 F cool100cannot be told 4
KO69 Petaluma Municipal AirportCA7.0 F4.8 F warm96the forecast, at this station 2
KMQB Macomb Municipal AirportIL6.6 F2.3 F warm100-
KSRB Upper Cumberland Regional AirportTN6.5 F6.5 F warm100the forecast, at this station 10
K2P2 Washington Island AirportWI6.2 F5.6 F warm100the forecast, at this station 3
KHSE Billy Mitchell AirportNC6.1 F0.6 F warm100the forecast, at this station 1
KEKQ Wayne County AirportKY6.0 F5.5 F warm100the forecast, at this station 10
KMVN Mount Vernon Outland AirportIL6.0 F4.3 F warm100the forecast, at this station 1
KMWN-5.9 F5.9 F cool100-
KVCB Nut Tree AirportCA5.9 F3.4 F warm100the forecast, at this station 2

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station31The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area1Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station317Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told39Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of September 29, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
PATA00 UTC46 F5.0 F41.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KOAR17 UTC63 F37.4 F25.6 F high62.2 F5The station
KOAR16 UTC59 F35.6 F23.4 F high57.7 F4The station
KGVW04 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low78.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low78.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low77.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW07 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low78.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low76.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW09 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low76.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low77.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW03 UTC64 F84.2 F20.2 F low79.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KOAR18 UTC66 F46.4 F19.6 F high68.0 F6The station
KGVW11 UTC63 F82.4 F19.4 F low75.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW12 UTC63 F82.4 F19.4 F low75.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW02 UTC65 F84.2 F19.2 F low80.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC65 F84.2 F19.2 F low78.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KOAR01 UTC60 F41.0 F19.0 F high64.1 F1The station
KOAR20 UTC67 F48.2 F18.8 F high79.1 F2The station
KOAR07 UTC56 F37.4 F18.6 F high56.8 F1The station
KSEE23 UTC82 F100.4 F18.4 F low77.3 F5The station
KOAR15 UTC54 F35.6 F18.4 F high53.2 F3The station
KGVW01 UTC66 F84.2 F18.2 F low82.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KC9922 UTC58 F41.0 F17.0 F high46.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KOAR02 UTC58 F41.0 F17.0 F high62.9 F2The station
KOAR19 UTC67 F50.0 F17.0 F high73.1 F1The station
KL3514 UTC34 F50.4 F16.4 F low-2Cannot be told
KOAR00 UTC61 F44.6 F16.4 F high67.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KOAR14 UTC52 F35.6 F16.4 F high52.1 F2The station
K1A615 UTC71 F54.7 F16.3 F high66.4 F3The station
KGVW00 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low84.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW14 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low82.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KC9923 UTC57 F41.0 F16.0 F high41.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KOAR05 UTC57 F41.0 F16.0 F high58.7 F5The station
KOAR08 UTC55 F39.2 F15.8 F high55.9 F2The station
KC9921 UTC58 F42.8 F15.2 F high46.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KL3513 UTC34 F49.1 F15.1 F low-1Cannot be told
KGVW15 UTC71 F86.0 F15.0 F low85.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KOAR06 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high57.7 F6The station
K1A614 UTC66 F51.3 F14.7 F high60.1 F2The forecast, at this station
K1MM12 UTC47 F61.7 F14.7 F low51.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KOAR13 UTC52 F37.4 F14.6 F high52.9 F1The station
KSRB07 UTC59 F44.6 F14.4 F high52.2 F19The forecast, at this station
KC9920 UTC57 F42.8 F14.2 F high44.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KOAR04 UTC57 F42.8 F14.2 F high58.8 F4The station
KSRB09 UTC57 F42.8 F14.2 F high50.7 F21The forecast, at this station
KEKQ03 UTC64 F50.0 F14.0 F high57.1 F15The forecast, at this station
KOAR09 UTC55 F41.0 F14.0 F high54.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KCPF13 UTC60 F46.4 F13.6 F high53.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KPXE03 UTC69 F55.4 F13.6 F high60.3 F15The forecast, at this station
KOAR03 UTC58 F44.6 F13.4 F high60.5 F3The station
KSRB08 UTC58 F44.6 F13.4 F high51.1 F20The forecast, at this station
KSRB10 UTC56 F42.8 F13.2 F high49.2 F22The forecast, at this station
KEKQ02 UTC65 F52.0 F13.0 F high60.3 F14The forecast, at this station
KIGM22 UTC68 F55.0 F13.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KL3512 UTC35 F48.0 F13.0 F low-6Cannot be told
KMCJ19 UTC90 F77.0 F13.0 F high90.9 F1The station
KOAR10 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high55.1 F4The station
KOAR11 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high53.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KVGT21 UTC79 F66.0 F13.0 F high71.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KSBA12 UTC63 F75.9 F12.9 F low55.7 F6The station
KVCB14 UTC66 F53.1 F12.9 F high52.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KHII01 UTC79 F66.2 F12.8 F high-1Cannot be told
KCWV12 UTC68 F55.4 F12.6 F high62.8 F24The forecast, at this station
KLWB16 UTC68 F55.4 F12.6 F high65.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KPXE04 UTC68 F55.4 F12.6 F high59.4 F16The forecast, at this station
KRVJ08 UTC68 F55.4 F12.6 F high60.3 F20The forecast, at this station
KSRB06 UTC59 F46.4 F12.6 F high53.2 F18The forecast, at this station
KDBN04 UTC67 F54.5 F12.5 F high60.4 F16The forecast, at this station
KCPF12 UTC57 F44.6 F12.4 F high50.9 F24The forecast, at this station
KDZJ12 UTC57 F44.6 F12.4 F high50.2 F24The forecast, at this station
KMQW06 UTC66 F53.6 F12.4 F high58.8 F18The forecast, at this station
KPXE05 UTC66 F53.6 F12.4 F high57.2 F17The forecast, at this station
K1A515 UTC67 F54.7 F12.3 F high65.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KDBN03 UTC68 F55.8 F12.2 F high63.0 F15The forecast, at this station
KE3800 UTC82 F69.8 F12.2 F high-6Cannot be told
KMQW09 UTC64 F51.8 F12.2 F high57.4 F21The forecast, at this station
KMVH11 UTC46 F33.8 F12.2 F high48.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KSRB11 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high48.6 F23The forecast, at this station
KSRB12 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high48.4 F24The forecast, at this station
KEKQ07 UTC59 F46.9 F12.1 F high51.8 F19The forecast, at this station
K1A613 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high53.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KCKI11 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high57.8 F23The forecast, at this station
KEKQ01 UTC66 F54.0 F12.0 F high62.5 F13The forecast, at this station
KEKQ04 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high55.5 F16The forecast, at this station
KEKQ06 UTC60 F48.0 F12.0 F high53.4 F18The forecast, at this station
KEKQ08 UTC58 F46.0 F12.0 F high51.6 F20The forecast, at this station
KGVW16 UTC74 F86.0 F12.0 F low87.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KGZS13 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high54.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KJES05 UTC71 F59.0 F12.0 F high65.0 F17The forecast, at this station
KJES06 UTC71 F59.0 F12.0 F high65.0 F18The forecast, at this station
KOAR12 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high52.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KOLF14 UTC49 F37.0 F12.0 F high45.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KOMK14 UTC49 F61.0 F12.0 F low56.4 F8Cannot be told
KPXE02 UTC71 F59.0 F12.0 F high62.7 F14The forecast, at this station
KPXE09 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high53.3 F21The forecast, at this station
KSBA07 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low58.2 F1The station
KSBA08 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low57.5 F2The station
KSBA09 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low57.5 F3The station
KSBX11 UTC47 F59.0 F12.0 F low56.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KSRB03 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high57.8 F15The forecast, at this station
KVCB09 UTC67 F55.0 F12.0 F high55.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KVCT20 UTC92 F80.1 F11.9 F high91.6 F2The station
K1A616 UTC75 F63.1 F11.9 F high71.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KELY13 UTC37 F48.9 F11.9 F low-1Cannot be told
K1HM10 UTC47 F58.8 F11.8 F low54.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KCXU05 UTC69 F57.2 F11.8 F high62.7 F17The forecast, at this station
KSRB05 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high55.4 F17The forecast, at this station
KDBN02 UTC70 F58.3 F11.7 F high63.3 F14The forecast, at this station
KDBN11 UTC61 F49.3 F11.7 F high55.6 F23The forecast, at this station
KCWV07 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high61.5 F19The forecast, at this station
KCWV08 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high61.3 F20The forecast, at this station
KDBN12 UTC62 F50.4 F11.6 F high57.0 F24The forecast, at this station
KMQW05 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high60.2 F17The forecast, at this station
KS3416 UTC51 F62.6 F11.6 F low-10Cannot be told
KJAU12 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high49.3 F24The forecast, at this station
KWDG20 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high78.5 F20The forecast, at this station
KWDG21 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high77.9 F21The forecast, at this station
KWDG22 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high76.3 F22The forecast, at this station
KRVJ06 UTC68 F56.5 F11.5 F high60.6 F18The forecast, at this station
KC8313 UTC62 F73.4 F11.4 F low54.9 F1The station
KCLK18 UTC83 F71.6 F11.4 F high76.8 F18The forecast, at this station
KCLK19 UTC83 F71.6 F11.4 F high78.9 F7The forecast, at this station
KF4518 UTC83 F71.6 F11.4 F high77.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KC9919 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high42.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KCPF14 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high59.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KDBN01 UTC72 F60.6 F11.4 F high67.4 F13The forecast, at this station
KHYW08 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high56.5 F20The forecast, at this station
KI3515 UTC70 F58.6 F11.4 F high64.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KLWB15 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high61.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KMQW07 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high57.0 F19The forecast, at this station
KVQQ04 UTC74 F62.6 F11.4 F high71.1 F16The forecast, at this station
KE3501 UTC80 F68.7 F11.3 F high72.9 F13Cannot be told
KI3514 UTC64 F52.7 F11.3 F high58.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KRHP13 UTC62 F50.7 F11.3 F high53.7 F25The forecast, at this station
KRVJ07 UTC68 F56.7 F11.3 F high61.2 F19The forecast, at this station
KU9622 UTC75 F63.7 F11.3 F high-4Cannot be told
K24J05 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high63.9 F17The forecast, at this station
KC9918 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high41.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KCKI08 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high59.3 F20The forecast, at this station
KCKI09 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high58.2 F21The forecast, at this station
KCKI12 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high59.4 F24The forecast, at this station
KCLK17 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high74.1 F17The forecast, at this station
KCXU03 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high65.7 F15The forecast, at this station
KHYW11 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high55.5 F23The forecast, at this station
KI7410 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high48.0 F22The forecast, at this station
KI7411 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high47.9 F23The forecast, at this station
KI7412 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high48.1 F24The forecast, at this station
KJES04 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high66.8 F16The forecast, at this station
KM2113 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high55.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KMQW11 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high57.9 F23The forecast, at this station
KO6913 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high53.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KO6914 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high52.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KPXE07 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high55.4 F19The forecast, at this station
KRSV03 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high57.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KSNH13 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high55.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KSRB01 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high63.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KJAU13 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high53.2 F1The forecast, at this station
K2P207 UTC57 F45.9 F11.1 F high47.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KAGS05 UTC67 F55.9 F11.1 F high59.7 F17The forecast, at this station
KHVR06 UTC51 F39.9 F11.1 F high-6Cannot be told
KIGM23 UTC67 F55.9 F11.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KLQK09 UTC62 F50.9 F11.1 F high55.3 F21The forecast, at this station
KMWH10 UTC51 F62.1 F11.1 F low58.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KOLF08 UTC49 F37.9 F11.1 F high46.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KOMK11 UTC51 F62.1 F11.1 F low60.0 F5Cannot be told
KOMK12 UTC51 F62.1 F11.1 F low60.0 F6Cannot be told
KE3801 UTC80 F68.9 F11.1 F high-1Cannot be told
KLAS21 UTC78 F66.9 F11.1 F high70.5 F3The forecast, at this station
K1A516 UTC72 F61.0 F11.0 F high70.7 F4The forecast, at this station
K1A606 UTC61 F50.0 F11.0 F high53.1 F18The forecast, at this station
K1MM09 UTC48 F59.0 F11.0 F low48.5 F3The forecast, at this station
K2P208 UTC56 F45.0 F11.0 F high46.5 F2The forecast, at this station
K2P209 UTC56 F45.0 F11.0 F high46.0 F3The forecast, at this station
K4S213 UTC48 F59.0 F11.0 F low57.1 F13The forecast, at this station
KAGS06 UTC66 F55.0 F11.0 F high58.0 F18The forecast, at this station
KC9917 UTC52 F41.0 F11.0 F high41.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KCXU04 UTC70 F59.0 F11.0 F high63.7 F16The forecast, at this station
KEHR06 UTC61 F50.0 F11.0 F high53.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KEKQ05 UTC61 F50.0 F11.0 F high54.4 F17The forecast, at this station
KEKQ09 UTC57 F46.0 F11.0 F high50.7 F21The forecast, at this station
KEKQ10 UTC56 F45.0 F11.0 F high50.6 F22The forecast, at this station
KELY14 UTC35 F46.0 F11.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KESC12 UTC52 F41.0 F11.0 F high46.0 F24The forecast, at this station
KGVW17 UTC75 F86.0 F11.0 F low88.3 F11The forecast, at this station
KGVW23 UTC75 F86.0 F11.0 F low85.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KHMN00 UTC79 F68.0 F11.0 F high-12Cannot be told
KHND18 UTC74 F63.0 F11.0 F high68.3 F12The forecast, at this station
KHND21 UTC77 F66.0 F11.0 F high69.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KHSE06 UTC74 F63.0 F11.0 F high65.5 F18The forecast, at this station
KIXD20 UTC79 F68.0 F11.0 F high72.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KJES07 UTC70 F59.0 F11.0 F high64.0 F19The forecast, at this station
KJES08 UTC70 F59.0 F11.0 F high62.9 F20The forecast, at this station
KLBF22 UTC66 F77.0 F11.0 F low75.3 F22The forecast, at this station
KLWB17 UTC70 F59.0 F11.0 F high65.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KMCI21 UTC79 F68.0 F11.0 F high70.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KMVN01 UTC68 F57.0 F11.0 F high61.9 F13The forecast, at this station
KOLF07 UTC50 F39.0 F11.0 F high43.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KOLF09 UTC48 F37.0 F11.0 F high44.8 F9The forecast, at this station
KOLF13 UTC45 F34.0 F11.0 F high43.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KOMK10 UTC52 F63.0 F11.0 F low60.0 F4Cannot be told

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, September 29, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.22.22.42.52.3+0.152%236,088
Storm Station correction2.22.22.42.52.3+0.152%236,088
National Weather Service forecast2.02.12.2-2.1-0.3-2,073
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.22.22.5-2.2-0.3-2,073
Storm Station lead1.91.92.1-1.9-0.3-2,073

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.22.22.22.32.3+0.563%235,305
Storm Station correction2.22.22.22.32.3+0.563%235,305
National Weather Service forecast1.72.02.1-1.80.0-2,074
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.52.82.9-2.6-0.8-2,074
Storm Station lead1.72.02.0-1.9-0.4-2,074

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.52.52.52.5+0.353%235,184
Storm Station correction2.42.52.52.52.5+0.353%235,184
National Weather Service forecast2.62.73.0-2.7+0.2-2,066
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.72.83.1-2.8-0.7-2,066
Storm Station lead2.42.62.8-2.5-0.3-2,066

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)25.726.126.427.026.3-15.245%88,103
Storm Station correction25.726.126.427.026.3-15.245%88,103
National Weather Service forecast18.620.422.0-19.7-13.2-1,734
NOAA GFS with HRRR23.321.123.1-22.5-2.2-1,734
Storm Station lead17.716.919.6-17.7-7.7-1,734

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0360.0370.0380.0400.380.310.10
NOAA GFS with HRRR0.0340.0440.053-0.410.270.06
Storm Station lead0.0340.0440.053-0.410.290.12

Snow

-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.