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Live/Forecast engine/October 4, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 4, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 1,226 airfields, was level at 392 and further at 876. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,361 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 4, 2026: closer at 1,155, level at 376, further at 830; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,226 of 2,494 airfields closer than the NBM58 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more596
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F630
  3. level, within 0.1 F392
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F509
  5. further by 0.5 F or more367

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, 2 of its 8 forecasts were still the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, the rest the engine’s own): closer at 10 of 70, level at 45 and further at 15. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,358 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 4, 2026: closer at 993, level at 457, further at 908; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,049 of 2,491 airfields closer than the NBM52 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more548
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F501
  3. level, within 0.1 F483
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F643
  5. further by 0.5 F or more316

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, 2 of its 8 forecasts were still the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, the rest the engine’s own): closer at 12 of 70, level at 39 and further at 19. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,364 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 4, 2026: closer at 851, level at 524, further at 989; the 70 panel airports ringed

919 of 2,502 airfields closer than the NBM47 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more355
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph564
  3. level, within 0.1 mph553
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph702
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more328

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, 2 of its 8 forecasts were still the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, the rest the engine’s own): closer at 19 of 70, level at 44 and further at 7. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,714 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 4, 2026: closer at 666, level at 416, further at 632; the 70 panel airports ringed

710 of 1,817 airfields closer than the NBM52 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more393
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points317
  3. level, within 1 point446
  4. further by 1 to 5 points298
  5. further by 5 points or more363

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, 2 of its 8 forecasts were still the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, the rest the engine’s own): closer at 7 of 63, level at 46 and further at 10. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 4, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.2 F on average, and within 5 F in 93 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.4 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
242,121
Readings checked
116,859
Readings that failed
244
Misses over 10 F
507

Who came closest on October 4, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+6.5%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.0 FWind2.3 mphSky cover15.0 points
  2. 2NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.2 FDew point2.0 FWind2.4 mphSky cover18.4 points
  3. 3Storm StationOn this day, 2 of its 8 forecasts were still the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, the rest the engine’s own-0.4%Temperature2.2 FDew point2.0 FWind2.3 mphSky cover18.4 points
  4. 4National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-2.1%Temperature2.2 FDew point2.1 FWind2.5 mphSky cover18.5 points
  5. 5NOAA GFS with HRRRNOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast-24.9%Temperature2.5 FDew point3.0 FWind2.6 mphSky cover23.7 points

Set aside on this day, each scored from fewer of the day’s forecasts than Storm Station and so not ranked beside it: NOAA GFS (1 of 8), NOAA HRRR (1 of 8), NOAA NAM (1 of 8), ECMWF IFS (1 of 8), ECMWF AIFS (1 of 8).

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 4, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports-1.4%-1.9%-0.9%-2.2%-1.7%-0.5%0%-1.5%-5.7%-2.4%+1.3%+1.3%+1.2%+4.8%+2.4%-1.7%-0.7%+1.4%+0.3%-0.1%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports+5.6%-2.3%-0.9%-0.4%+0.4%-1.6%-6.1%-7.5%-5.7%-5.2%-2.1%-3.8%-5.4%-0.4%-2.8%+3.4%+3.2%-3.5%-5%-0.8%
NOAA GFS with HRRRat the 70 airports-1.9%-16.8%-14%-18.9%-13.3%-35.4%-44.7%-54.5%-59.7%-49.5%-7.7%-8%-7.9%-8.1%-7.9%-26.9%-29.2%-29.8%-30.3%-29.1%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield+4%+5.7%+5.9%+6.8%+5.5%+5.7%+5.6%+5.1%+6.1%+5.9%+0.4%+0.4%+0.4%+0.8%+0.8%-3.5%-2.4%-0.2%-0.3%-1.6%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 4, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 4, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked116,859 readings, 244 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day2,631,848 forecast hoursEach large miss explained507 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned35,338 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 116,859 readings, 244 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 2,631,848 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 507 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 35,338 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.23 F, the NBM 2.20 FBehind today by 0.04 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.05 F, the NBM 2.00 FBehind today by 0.05 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.34 mph, the NBM 2.40 mphAhead today by 0.06 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 18.39 points, the NBM 18.36 pointsBehind today by 0.03 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it68 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 49On target today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.28 against 0.31, 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.03
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.23 against 0.21 at 0.01 inchAhead today by 0.02
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 4, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 4, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hECMWF IFSGFS with HRRRGFSNBMNAMCorrectionECMWF AIFSStorm StationNWS forecastHRRR
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 4, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hECMWF IFSECMWF AIFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastHRRRCorrectionGFSNAMStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 4, 202602461 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMGFSGFS with HRRRECMWF IFSHRRRECMWF AIFSNBMCorrectionStorm StationNWS forecast
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 4, 202601020301 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRCorrectionNBMNWS forecastHRRRStorm StationGFSECMWF IFSNAMECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.2 F warmStorm Station0.4 F coolNWS forecast0.5 F coolGFS0.2 F warmHRRR0.2 F coolNAM1.0 F coolECMWF IFS0.8 F coolECMWF AIFS1.0 F coolGFS with HRRR0.7 F coolCorrection0.2 F warm

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.2 mph strongStorm Station0.3 mph strongNWS forecast0.2 mph strongGFS1.1 mph lightHRRR1.3 mph lightNAM1.1 mph lightECMWF IFS2.6 mph lightECMWF AIFS2.5 mph lightGFS with HRRR0.7 mph lightCorrection0.2 mph light

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.9 F moistStorm Station0.3 F moistNWS forecast0.5 F moistGFS2.1 F dryHRRR0.7 F dryNAM3.8 F moistECMWF IFS0.9 F moistECMWF AIFS0.2 F moistGFS with HRRR1.3 F dryCorrection0.7 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM11.9 points clearStorm Station12.7 points clearNWS forecast13.3 points clearGFS1.9 points clearHRRR5.5 points clearNAM8.4 points clearECMWF IFS11.2 points clearECMWF AIFS6.3 points clearGFS with HRRR0.6 points clearCorrectioneven

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KBID Block Island State AirportRI0.5 F0.1 F warm100-
PAMD Middleton Island AirportAK0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
PGWT-0.7 F0.3 F cool46-
PAGM Gambell AirportAK0.7 F0.7 F warm100-
KCQX Chatham Municipal AirportMA0.7 F0.4 F warm100-
KFRR Front Royal Warren County AirportVA0.8 F0.1 F cool95-
PAJN Juneau International AirportAK0.8 F0.2 F cool100-
KMCD Mackinac Island AirportMI0.8 F0.3 F cool100-
KMTP Montauk AirportNY0.8 F0.1 F warm100-
KDCA Ronald Reagan Washington National AirportDC0.8 F0.1 F warm96-
PAUT Akutan AirportAK0.8 F0.2 F warm100-
PHNG Kaneohe Bay MCAS (Marion E. Carl Field) AirportHI0.8 F0.5 F cool92-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
PABR Wiley Post Will Rogers Memorial AirportAK9.3 F9.3 F warm100cannot be told 5
KNSI San Nicolas Island Nolf AirportCA9.2 F9.2 F cool71cannot be told 6
KFOT Rohnerville AirportCA9.0 F9.0 F warm100cannot be told 14
PAAD Point Thomson AirstripAK8.7 F8.0 F warm100cannot be told 9
K4S1 Gold Beach Municipal AirportOR7.9 F7.9 F warm92-
KEKS Ennis Big Sky AirportMT7.8 F7.5 F warm100the forecast, at this station 12, cannot be told 1
KACV California Redwood Coast-Humboldt County AirportCA7.5 F7.5 F warm100cannot be told 6
PATQ Atqasuk Edward Burnell Sr Memorial AirportAK7.3 F7.3 F warm100cannot be told 4
KLKV Lake County AirportOR6.8 F6.0 F warm100cannot be told 7
KNUC San Clemente Island Naval Auxiliary Landing FieldCA6.7 F6.7 F cool50cannot be told 1
KMHS-6.4 F6.1 F warm95the forecast, at this station 6
PAWI Wainwright AirportAK6.2 F6.2 F warm100-

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station24The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area1Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station295Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told187Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 4, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
KSEE21 UTC102 F50.0 F52.0 F high99.2 F3The station
KGEU18 UTC93 F60.8 F32.2 F high92.9 F6The station
KCFE19 UTC64 F33.8 F30.2 F high65.4 F1The station
PAAD13 UTC19 F-5.6 F24.6 F high-1Cannot be told
KGVW07 UTC58 F80.6 F22.6 F low78.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW04 UTC60 F82.4 F22.4 F low80.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC57 F78.8 F21.8 F low76.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW11 UTC57 F78.8 F21.8 F low76.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW12 UTC57 F78.8 F21.8 F low76.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC59 F80.6 F21.6 F low79.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC59 F80.6 F21.6 F low78.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW03 UTC61 F82.4 F21.4 F low82.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC58 F78.8 F20.8 F low77.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW09 UTC58 F78.8 F20.8 F low-3Cannot be told
KY4915 UTC54 F33.8 F20.2 F high51.7 F3The station
KRHV00 UTC95 F75.2 F19.8 F high92.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KEKS13 UTC57 F37.4 F19.6 F high34.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC61 F80.6 F19.6 F low76.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKS14 UTC56 F37.4 F18.6 F high35.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KO2603 UTC81 F62.6 F18.4 F high-3The station
KGVW00 UTC66 F84.2 F18.2 F low85.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KEKS08 UTC59 F41.0 F18.0 F high41.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KO2611 UTC68 F50.0 F18.0 F high-5The station
KBAN16 UTC61 F43.0 F18.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KEKS11 UTC57 F39.2 F17.8 F high39.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KEKS12 UTC57 F39.2 F17.8 F high38.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KO2608 UTC73 F55.4 F17.6 F high-2Cannot be told
KGVW02 UTC63 F80.6 F17.6 F low84.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KMZJ01 UTC72 F89.6 F17.6 F low88.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KO2609 UTC71 F53.6 F17.4 F high-3Cannot be told
KO2610 UTC69 F51.8 F17.2 F high-4Cannot be told
KTVL15 UTC55 F37.9 F17.1 F high43.6 F3The forecast, at this station
PAAD14 UTC19 F1.9 F17.1 F high-2Cannot be told
KEKS09 UTC58 F41.0 F17.0 F high36.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KEKS10 UTC58 F41.0 F17.0 F high38.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KO2612 UTC67 F50.0 F17.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KNSI17 UTC75 F91.9 F16.9 F low-5Cannot be told
PAAD20 UTC21 F4.1 F16.9 F high-2Cannot be told
KO2607 UTC74 F57.2 F16.8 F high-1Cannot be told
KGVW01 UTC64 F80.6 F16.6 F low84.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW14 UTC64 F80.6 F16.6 F low77.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KMZJ00 UTC75 F91.4 F16.4 F low91.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KO2604 UTC79 F62.6 F16.4 F high-4Cannot be told
KEKS07 UTC59 F42.8 F16.2 F high45.3 F1Cannot be told
KLKV08 UTC55 F39.0 F16.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KMZJ02 UTC70 F86.0 F16.0 F low85.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KVQQ16 UTC84 F68.0 F16.0 F high84.8 F4The station
KNSI15 UTC70 F86.0 F16.0 F low-3Cannot be told
KMZJ18 UTC74 F89.6 F15.6 F low89.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KEKS05 UTC60 F44.6 F15.4 F high48.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KMZJ20 UTC78 F93.2 F15.2 F low92.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KLKV09 UTC53 F37.9 F15.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KTVL12 UTC53 F37.9 F15.1 F high43.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KLKV12 UTC49 F34.0 F15.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KSIY13 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high49.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KTVL11 UTC54 F39.0 F15.0 F high45.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KSIY07 UTC68 F53.1 F14.9 F high55.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KFOT09 UTC61 F46.4 F14.6 F high-3Cannot be told
KFOT10 UTC61 F46.4 F14.6 F high-4Cannot be told
KFOT11 UTC61 F46.4 F14.6 F high-5Cannot be told
KGVW15 UTC66 F80.6 F14.6 F low78.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KLLR01 UTC66 F80.6 F14.6 F low-1Cannot be told
KLLR23 UTC68 F82.4 F14.4 F low-5Cannot be told
KMZJ19 UTC77 F91.4 F14.4 F low91.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KO2605 UTC77 F62.6 F14.4 F high-5Cannot be told
PAAD19 UTC20 F5.7 F14.3 F high-1Cannot be told
KMZJ21 UTC79 F93.2 F14.2 F low93.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KMZJ22 UTC79 F93.2 F14.2 F low93.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ23 UTC79 F93.2 F14.2 F low93.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KTVL14 UTC52 F37.9 F14.1 F high44.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KLKV10 UTC51 F37.0 F14.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KLKV11 UTC50 F36.0 F14.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KMZJ17 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low86.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KSIY05 UTC73 F59.0 F14.0 F high58.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KTVL13 UTC53 F39.0 F14.0 F high46.0 F1The forecast, at this station
PABA16 UTC23 F9.0 F14.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KNSI22 UTC79 F93.0 F14.0 F low-4Cannot be told
KLKV06 UTC58 F44.1 F13.9 F high-6Cannot be told
KLKV07 UTC56 F42.1 F13.9 F high-1Cannot be told
PAAD18 UTC22 F8.2 F13.8 F high-6Cannot be told
KEKS03 UTC62 F48.2 F13.8 F high50.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KFOT06 UTC62 F48.2 F13.8 F high-6Cannot be told
PAAD17 UTC21 F7.3 F13.7 F high-5Cannot be told
KAFO02 UTC60 F46.4 F13.6 F high57.6 F2The station
KFOT12 UTC60 F46.4 F13.6 F high-6Cannot be told
KFOT13 UTC60 F46.4 F13.6 F high-1Cannot be told
KOAR19 UTC76 F89.6 F13.6 F low89.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKS15 UTC58 F44.6 F13.4 F high38.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KO2606 UTC76 F62.6 F13.4 F high-6Cannot be told
KFOT02 UTC65 F51.8 F13.2 F high-2Cannot be told
KTSP11 UTC65 F51.8 F13.2 F high60.3 F5The forecast, at this station
PAAD15 UTC20 F6.8 F13.2 F high-3Cannot be told
K41U14 UTC55 F41.9 F13.1 F high55.1 F2The forecast, at this station
PABA18 UTC24 F10.9 F13.1 F high-6Cannot be told
PABR14 UTC24 F10.9 F13.1 F high-2Cannot be told
PABR17 UTC24 F10.9 F13.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KNFG09 UTC78 F64.9 F13.1 F high77.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KSUU03 UTC84 F70.9 F13.1 F high79.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KAAT07 UTC58 F45.0 F13.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KACV11 UTC58 F45.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KACV12 UTC58 F45.0 F13.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KACV13 UTC58 F45.0 F13.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KACV14 UTC58 F45.0 F13.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KFOT16 UTC63 F50.0 F13.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KMHS05 UTC67 F54.0 F13.0 F high57.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KMHS06 UTC65 F52.0 F13.0 F high56.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KOXR19 UTC84 F97.0 F13.0 F low99.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KSBA19 UTC82 F95.0 F13.0 F low89.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KSNS20 UTC84 F97.0 F13.0 F low92.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KSNT17 UTC59 F46.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KTVL10 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high47.2 F4The forecast, at this station
PABR06 UTC23 F10.0 F13.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KBAN17 UTC68 F55.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KNRS01 UTC86 F99.0 F13.0 F low97.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KTVL08 UTC57 F44.1 F12.9 F high51.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KTVL16 UTC64 F51.1 F12.9 F high51.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KFOT07 UTC61 F48.2 F12.8 F high-1Cannot be told
KFOT08 UTC61 F48.2 F12.8 F high-2Cannot be told
KLAL20 UTC88 F75.2 F12.8 F high89.2 F2The station
KPJC12 UTC52 F39.2 F12.8 F high49.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KVBG16 UTC69 F81.7 F12.7 F low75.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KAGZ13 UTC50 F37.4 F12.6 F high43.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKS06 UTC59 F46.4 F12.6 F high46.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KPNA05 UTC50 F37.4 F12.6 F high45.3 F5The forecast, at this station
PAAD12 UTC16 F3.4 F12.6 F high-6Cannot be told
KLLR00 UTC68 F80.6 F12.6 F low-6Cannot be told
KLLR22 UTC68 F80.6 F12.6 F low-4Cannot be told
KMZJ03 UTC68 F80.6 F12.6 F low84.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KAVQ09 UTC70 F82.4 F12.4 F low74.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KO2602 UTC84 F71.6 F12.4 F high-2Cannot be told
KD5710 UTC39 F26.6 F12.4 F high36.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KFOT17 UTC66 F53.6 F12.4 F high-5Cannot be told
KPJC13 UTC57 F44.6 F12.4 F high52.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KPNA06 UTC48 F35.6 F12.4 F high42.9 F6The forecast, at this station
PAAD21 UTC22 F9.7 F12.3 F high-3Cannot be told
KBOW19 UTC91 F78.8 F12.2 F high88.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KDNS13 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high48.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKS02 UTC64 F51.8 F12.2 F high56.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KD5712 UTC37 F24.8 F12.2 F high35.1 F6The station
KACV09 UTC59 F46.9 F12.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KAIA07 UTC50 F37.9 F12.1 F high48.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KBKE09 UTC50 F37.9 F12.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KLOL05 UTC70 F57.9 F12.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KMHS09 UTC61 F48.9 F12.1 F high51.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KPBX19 UTC74 F61.9 F12.1 F high67.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KSNT18 UTC68 F55.9 F12.1 F high-6Cannot be told
KTVL06 UTC59 F46.9 F12.1 F high57.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KBAN11 UTC50 F37.9 F12.1 F high-5Cannot be told
PABA15 UTC23 F10.9 F12.1 F high-3Cannot be told
PABA17 UTC23 F10.9 F12.1 F high-5Cannot be told
PABR12 UTC25 F12.9 F12.1 F high-24Cannot be told
PATQ13 UTC23 F10.9 F12.1 F high-1Cannot be told
KOXR18 UTC84 F96.1 F12.1 F low97.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KAAT08 UTC57 F45.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KAAT09 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KACV15 UTC58 F46.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KAIA06 UTC51 F39.0 F12.0 F high52.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KBOW20 UTC89 F77.0 F12.0 F high89.1 F2The station
KFOT03 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KGIF20 UTC89 F77.0 F12.0 F high88.9 F2The station
KGOO13 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low-1Cannot be told
KGOO14 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low70.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KMEH15 UTC49 F37.0 F12.0 F high41.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KMHK13 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high52.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KMHS08 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high53.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KMHS12 UTC58 F46.0 F12.0 F high46.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KNZY19 UTC88 F100.0 F12.0 F low101.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KP6923 UTC82 F70.0 F12.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KRNM14 UTC75 F63.0 F12.0 F high72.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KSNT13 UTC37 F25.0 F12.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KTVL07 UTC58 F46.0 F12.0 F high53.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KTVL09 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high48.1 F3The forecast, at this station
PABR04 UTC26 F14.0 F12.0 F high-16Cannot be told
PATQ14 UTC22 F10.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
PATQ15 UTC22 F10.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
PATQ17 UTC21 F9.0 F12.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KNRS02 UTC83 F95.0 F12.0 F low91.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KNRS17 UTC85 F97.0 F12.0 F low95.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KNSI20 UTC79 F91.0 F12.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KNSI21 UTC79 F91.0 F12.0 F low-3Cannot be told
KNSI16 UTC73 F84.9 F11.9 F low-4Cannot be told
KNUC13 UTC71 F82.9 F11.9 F low-1Cannot be told
K41U13 UTC54 F42.1 F11.9 F high54.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KAXX14 UTC45 F33.1 F11.9 F high-2Cannot be told
KCDR06 UTC54 F42.1 F11.9 F high-6Cannot be told
KLOL12 UTC56 F44.1 F11.9 F high-6Cannot be told
KMHS07 UTC63 F51.1 F11.9 F high53.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KTMT14 UTC42 F30.2 F11.8 F high-2Cannot be told
KC8303 UTC87 F75.2 F11.8 F high79.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KFOT01 UTC69 F57.2 F11.8 F high-1Cannot be told
KFOT18 UTC69 F57.2 F11.8 F high-6Cannot be told
KGOO15 UTC67 F78.8 F11.8 F low72.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KPHG13 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high49.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KPJC11 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high46.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KD5709 UTC40 F28.4 F11.6 F high38.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KRDK13 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high52.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KRTS15 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high48.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KTRK11 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high47.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KIER21 UTC83 F71.4 F11.6 F high77.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KC8302 UTC92 F80.6 F11.4 F high87.1 F2The forecast, at this station

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 4, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.52.52.52.62.5+0.249%242,121
Storm Station correction2.42.32.42.52.4+0.268%242,121
National Weather Service forecast2.02.22.22.32.2-0.5-6,929
NOAA GFS2.7---2.7+0.2-280
NOAA HRRR1.9---1.9-0.2-268
NOAA NAM2.6---2.6-1.0-268
ECMWF IFS3.3---3.3-0.8-280
ECMWF AIFS2.5---2.5-1.0-280
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.22.52.52.72.5-0.7-6,929
Storm Station lead2.22.22.22.32.2-0.457%6,929
NBM, at the 70 airports2.12.12.22.32.2-0.457%6,951
Correction, at the 70 airports2.12.12.12.12.1+0.268%6,951

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.32.32.42.52.4+0.959%240,949
Storm Station correction2.22.22.32.32.2+0.768%240,949
National Weather Service forecast1.92.12.12.22.1+0.5-6,955
NOAA GFS3.6---3.6-2.1-280
NOAA HRRR2.8---2.8-0.7-268
NOAA NAM4.8---4.8+3.8-268
ECMWF IFS3.2---3.2+0.9-280
ECMWF AIFS2.5---2.5+0.2-280
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.62.93.13.43.0-1.3-6,955
Storm Station lead1.92.02.02.22.0+0.369%6,955
NBM, at the 70 airports1.92.02.02.12.0+0.469%6,976
Correction, at the 70 airports1.91.92.02.12.0+0.471%6,976

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.42.42.52.4+0.251%241,997
Storm Station correction2.42.42.42.52.4-0.271%241,997
National Weather Service forecast2.42.52.52.52.5+0.2-6,951
NOAA GFS2.4---2.4-1.1-279
NOAA HRRR2.5---2.5-1.3-267
NOAA NAM2.4---2.4-1.1-267
ECMWF IFS3.3---3.3-2.6-279
ECMWF AIFS3.1---3.1-2.5-279
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.52.62.62.72.6-0.7-6,951
Storm Station lead2.32.32.42.42.3+0.3-6,951
NBM, at the 70 airports2.32.42.42.52.4+0.452%6,972
Correction, at the 70 airports2.32.32.42.42.4-0.273%6,972

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)20.621.422.022.521.6-11.951%107,532
Storm Station correction21.321.922.022.622.0+0.066%107,532
National Weather Service forecast16.917.619.120.118.5-13.3-4,890
NOAA GFS19.1---19.1-1.9-233
NOAA HRRR19.7---19.7-5.5-221
NOAA NAM18.0---18.0-8.4-221
ECMWF IFS19.0---19.0-11.2-233
ECMWF AIFS15.3---15.3-6.3-233
NOAA GFS with HRRR22.323.623.924.923.7-0.6-4,890
Storm Station lead17.818.418.219.118.4-12.7-4,890
NBM, at the 70 airports17.518.218.419.118.4-13.457%4,907
Correction, at the 70 airports14.115.215.315.515.0+1.381%4,907

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0440.0460.0490.0500.340.260.10
NOAA GFS0.077---0.130.25-0.01
NOAA HRRR0.046---0.420.260.16
ECMWF IFS0.056---0.370.370.00
NOAA GFS with HRRR0.0330.0350.0370.0380.360.170.06
Storm Station lead0.0370.0380.0390.0450.280.230.09
NBM, at the 70 airports0.0360.0370.0390.0420.310.210.10

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
309
Where snow fell or was forecast
1
Mean miss, depth
1.0 in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in0100.00
3 in000-
6 in000-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.