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Live/Forecast engine/October 13, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 13, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 890 airfields, was level at 482 and further at 1,114. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,356 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 13, 2026: closer at 841, level at 468, further at 1,047; the 70 panel airports ringed

890 of 2,486 airfields closer than the NBM44 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more347
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F543
  3. level, within 0.1 F482
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F674
  5. further by 0.5 F or more440

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 70, level at 64 and further at 6. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,356 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 13, 2026: closer at 968, level at 547, further at 841; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,011 of 2,486 airfields closer than the NBM53 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more411
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F600
  3. level, within 0.1 F572
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F631
  5. further by 0.5 F or more272

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 1 of 70, level at 61 and further at 8. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,363 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 13, 2026: closer at 834, level at 549, further at 980; the 70 panel airports ringed

894 of 2,500 airfields closer than the NBM46 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more322
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph572
  3. level, within 0.1 mph574
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph674
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more358

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 17 of 70, level at 48 and further at 5. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,978 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 13, 2026: closer at 1,295, level at 265, further at 418; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,367 of 2,088 airfields closer than the NBM76 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more975
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points392
  3. level, within 1 point278
  4. further by 1 to 5 points221
  5. further by 5 points or more222

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 1 of 70, level at 64 and further at 5. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 13, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.2 F on average, and within 5 F in 93 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.1 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
239,522
Readings checked
118,664
Readings that failed
139
Misses over 10 F
1,229

Who came closest on October 13, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+5.4%Temperature2.2 FDew point2.2 FWind2.4 mphSky cover17.8 points
  2. 2ECMWF AIFSArtificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model+2.5%Temperature1.9 FDew point2.0 FWind3.0 mphSky cover21.4 points
  3. 3NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.2 FDew point2.1 FWind2.5 mphSky cover24.1 points
  4. 4Storm StationThe engine’s own forecast, as every page prints it-0.5%Temperature2.2 FDew point2.1 FWind2.5 mphSky cover24.2 points
  5. 5National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-0.9%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.3 FWind2.5 mphSky cover23.4 points
  6. 6NOAA HRRRHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour-10.1%Temperature2.5 FDew point2.4 FWind2.6 mphSky cover27.5 points
  7. 7ECMWF IFSIntegrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model-11.4%Temperature2.4 FDew point2.2 FWind2.9 mphSky cover26.5 points
  8. 8NOAA NAMNorth American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48-21.2%Temperature2.7 FDew point2.9 FWind2.6 mphSky cover30.0 points
  9. 9NOAA GFSGlobal Forecast System, NOAA’s global model-22.8%Temperature2.5 FDew point2.9 FWind2.7 mphSky cover30.8 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 13, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports-1.5%-0.9%-1.8%-1.3%-1.3%-1.6%-1%-1.9%-1.8%-1.5%+1.6%+0.8%+0.8%+1.6%+1.3%-0.6%-0.2%+0.5%-2%-0.6%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports+1.5%+5.6%+1.4%0%+2.1%-6.3%-5.9%-8.8%-10.6%-8%+1.2%0%-1.6%-1.2%-0.4%+4.8%+4.1%+4%-1.6%+2.6%
NOAA GFSat the 70 airports-17.3%-13.1%-18.2%-17.2%-16.4%-42.4%-37.3%-38.1%-37.4%-38.7%-7.3%-7.2%-9.7%-9.1%-8.4%-31.6%-29.6%-27%-24%-27.8%
NOAA HRRRat the 70 airports-15.7%-11.2%-12.3%-16.3%-11.8%-15.7%-11.3%-15.8%-7.9%-11.1%+0.4%-3.2%-8.1%-9.1%-5.1%-19.3%-15.3%-14%-9.9%-12.4%
NOAA NAMat the 70 airports-28.9%-24.3%-22.3%-20.2%-21.1%-42.4%-38.2%-36.3%-33%-35.4%-2.8%-4.4%-7.7%-7.9%-5.8%-27.9%-22.8%-21%-26%-22.3%
ECMWF IFSat the 70 airports-18.3%-13.6%-10.5%-8.2%-12.1%-7.9%-6.9%-7.4%-3.1%-5.7%-16.5%-18.9%-19.8%-16.2%-17.7%-13.8%-10.8%-7.3%-8.7%-10%
ECMWF AIFSat the 70 airports+4.6%+11.2%+15%+18.5%+12.8%-3.1%+2.5%+5.1%+11.9%+4.7%-18.5%-17.3%-20.2%-19%-18.7%+5.9%+10.6%+13.1%+14.4%+11.2%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield-2.7%-2.1%-1.6%-1.6%-1.7%+2.8%+4%+5.2%+5.8%+4.4%-0.4%-0.4%-0.8%-0.4%-0.4%+19.3%+19.4%+20.1%+19%+19.4%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 13, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 13, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked118,664 readings, 139 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day2,767,771 forecast hoursEach large miss explained1,229 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned35,839 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 118,664 readings, 139 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 2,767,771 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 1,229 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 35,839 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.19 F, the NBM 2.17 FBehind today by 0.03 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.13 F, the NBM 2.10 FBehind today by 0.03 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.46 mph, the NBM 2.50 mphAhead today by 0.03 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 24.23 points, the NBM 24.08 pointsBehind today by 0.15 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station 41 in 100 hours, the NBM 41; off by 0.76 categories, the NBM 0.76Level today
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it73 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 55Too wide today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.37 against 0.37, 1 to 6 hours aheadLevel today
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.27 against 0.26 at 0.01 inchAhead today by 0.01
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forwardStorm Station 2.00 F, the NBM 1.99 F, the last reading carried forward 4.63 F, temperature 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.01 F

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 13, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 13, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMGFSHRRRCorrectionNBMECMWF IFSStorm StationNWS forecastECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 13, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hECMWF AIFSECMWF IFSGFSHRRRNAMNWS forecastStorm StationCorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 13, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFSNAMNWS forecastHRRRNBMECMWF IFSStorm StationCorrectionECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 13, 20260102030401 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMGFSNBMHRRRECMWF IFSStorm StationNWS forecastCorrectionECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.4 F warmStorm Station0.1 F coolNWS forecast0.3 F coolGFSevenHRRR1.3 F coolNAM0.5 F coolECMWF IFS0.6 F coolECMWF AIFS0.7 F coolCorrection0.2 F warm

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.4 mph strongStorm Station0.5 mph strongNWS forecast0.3 mph strongGFS0.2 mph lightHRRR0.7 mph lightNAM0.7 mph lightECMWF IFS1.1 mph lightECMWF AIFS0.8 mph lightCorrection0.2 mph light

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.7 F moistStorm Station0.6 F moistNWS forecast0.8 F moistGFS2.1 F dryHRRR0.1 F dryNAM1.5 F moistECMWF IFS0.7 F moistECMWF AIFS0.5 F moistCorrection0.1 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM22.3 points clearStorm Station20.7 points clearNWS forecast18.7 points clearGFS20.0 points clearHRRR12.2 points clearNAM18.8 points clearECMWF IFS19.9 points clearECMWF AIFS18.0 points clearCorrection8.1 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
PAOM Nome AirportAK0.5 F0.3 F cool100-
KEBG South Texas International at Edinburg AirportTX0.6 F0.2 F warm100-
KNGP Naval Air Station Corpus Christi Truax FieldTX0.6 F0.3 F cool100-
KBMQ Burnet Municipal Airport/Kate Craddock FieldTX0.6 F0.1 F cool100-
KBQX-0.6 F0.4 F cool100-
PALH Lake Hood Seaplane BaseAK0.6 Feven100-
KBRO Brownsville South Padre Island International AirportTX0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
PATE Teller AirportAK0.7 F0.1 F warm100-
KTXW Mid Valley International AirportTX0.7 F0.6 F warm100-
KSSF Stinson Municipal AirportTX0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
KNYG Quantico Marine Corps Airfield / Turner FieldVA0.7 F0.2 F cool84-
KSGF Springfield Branson National AirportMO0.7 F0.5 F warm100-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KK82 Smith Center Municipal AirportKS12.4 F12.4 F warm92the forecast, across the area 4, the forecast, at this station 1
KHLC Hill City Municipal AirportKS12.3 F12.1 F warm100the forecast, across the area 6, the forecast, at this station 1
KTQK Scott City Municipal AirportKS11.7 F11.6 F warm100the forecast, across the area 5, the forecast, at this station 2
KCBF Council Bluffs Municipal AirportIA11.2 F11.2 F warm100the forecast, across the area 2
KNRN Norton Municipal AirportKS11.0 F11.0 F warm88the forecast, across the area 2
KOEL Oakley Municipal AirportKS11.0 F11.0 F warm92the forecast, across the area 5, the forecast, at this station 1
KPMV Plattsmouth Municipal AirportNE10.9 F10.9 F warm100the forecast, across the area 2
KBTA Blair Executive AirportNE10.8 F10.8 F warm100the forecast, across the area 1
KCNK Blosser Municipal AirportKS10.8 F10.8 F warm96the forecast, across the area 2, the forecast, at this station 2
KHYS Hays Regional AirportKS10.8 F10.1 F warm100the forecast, across the area 8, the forecast, at this station 1
KPHG Phillipsburg Municipal AirportKS10.7 F10.7 F warm100the forecast, across the area 3, the forecast, at this station 1
KHSI Hastings Municipal AirportNE10.6 F10.6 F warm100-

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station39The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area567Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station532Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told91Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 13, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
K1NW00 UTC43 F75.6 F32.6 F low70.5 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW01 UTC40 F68.7 F28.7 F low64.7 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW02 UTC39 F63.7 F24.7 F low59.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KTQK17 UTC77 F54.1 F22.9 F high64.7 F5The forecast, across the area
KTQK18 UTC79 F56.8 F22.2 F high66.6 F6The forecast, across the area
K1NW03 UTC38 F59.4 F21.4 F low56.6 F3The forecast, at this station
K3K717 UTC75 F53.6 F21.4 F high64.1 F5The forecast, across the area
KLQR19 UTC89 F68.0 F21.0 F high74.2 F1The forecast, across the area
KTQK19 UTC82 F61.5 F20.5 F high68.3 F1The forecast, across the area
KLYO22 UTC85 F64.6 F20.4 F high71.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KTQK16 UTC73 F52.7 F20.3 F high70.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KGBD20 UTC88 F68.0 F20.0 F high73.4 F2The forecast, across the area
KLQR20 UTC88 F68.0 F20.0 F high72.2 F2The forecast, across the area
K1NW04 UTC37 F56.8 F19.8 F low53.3 F4The forecast, at this station
K3K718 UTC77 F57.2 F19.8 F high66.4 F6The forecast, across the area
K3K716 UTC71 F51.8 F19.2 F high71.3 F4The forecast, at this station
K36K19 UTC87 F68.0 F19.0 F high72.4 F1The forecast, across the area
KBZN22 UTC51 F32.0 F19.0 F high43.9 F10The forecast, across the area
K36K20 UTC88 F69.8 F18.2 F high72.4 F2The forecast, across the area
K36K21 UTC88 F69.8 F18.2 F high72.4 F3The forecast, across the area
K3K719 UTC79 F60.8 F18.2 F high68.9 F1The forecast, across the area
KBZN21 UTC50 F32.0 F18.0 F high43.4 F9The station
KHYS18 UTC79 F61.0 F18.0 F high69.6 F6The forecast, across the area
KGCK20 UTC89 F71.1 F17.9 F high73.0 F2The forecast, across the area
KSLB00 UTC75 F57.2 F17.8 F high58.5 F6The forecast, across the area
K3K720 UTC80 F62.6 F17.4 F high69.4 F2The forecast, across the area
KLYO21 UTC88 F70.7 F17.3 F high76.1 F3The forecast, across the area
K1NW05 UTC37 F54.1 F17.1 F low51.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KGCK18 UTC84 F66.9 F17.1 F high71.2 F6The forecast, across the area
KMHK23 UTC82 F64.9 F17.1 F high67.6 F5The forecast, across the area
KSLN22 UTC84 F66.9 F17.1 F high72.9 F4The forecast, across the area
K9K720 UTC85 F68.0 F17.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KGBD21 UTC87 F70.0 F17.0 F high71.0 F3The forecast, across the area
KGBD22 UTC85 F68.0 F17.0 F high67.5 F4The forecast, across the area
KGCK21 UTC89 F72.0 F17.0 F high73.0 F3The forecast, across the area
KGCK23 UTC85 F68.0 F17.0 F high69.0 F5The forecast, across the area
KHLC19 UTC72 F55.0 F17.0 F high55.1 F1The forecast, across the area
KHYS20 UTC81 F64.0 F17.0 F high65.6 F2The forecast, across the area
KHYS21 UTC81 F64.0 F17.0 F high67.1 F3The forecast, across the area
KMHK22 UTC87 F70.0 F17.0 F high70.5 F4The forecast, across the area
KRSL20 UTC81 F64.0 F17.0 F high68.3 F2The forecast, across the area
KSLN21 UTC87 F70.0 F17.0 F high81.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KHYS17 UTC77 F60.1 F16.9 F high68.6 F5The forecast, across the area
KHYS22 UTC79 F62.1 F16.9 F high66.1 F4The forecast, across the area
KHYS23 UTC77 F60.1 F16.9 F high64.1 F5The forecast, across the area
KEKS18 UTC45 F28.4 F16.6 F high31.9 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW22 UTC48 F64.6 F16.6 F low61.2 F4The forecast, at this station
K36K17 UTC81 F64.4 F16.6 F high68.8 F5The forecast, across the area
KLYO23 UTC82 F65.5 F16.5 F high67.0 F5The forecast, across the area
KMZJ21 UTC66 F82.4 F16.4 F low76.1 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW07 UTC35 F51.4 F16.4 F low48.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KTQK20 UTC82 F65.7 F16.3 F high70.1 F2The forecast, across the area
KTQK15 UTC68 F51.8 F16.2 F high69.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KHLC21 UTC74 F57.9 F16.1 F high58.0 F3The forecast, across the area
KRSL21 UTC81 F64.9 F16.1 F high70.1 F3The forecast, across the area
K36K18 UTC84 F68.0 F16.0 F high70.6 F6The forecast, across the area
K36K23 UTC84 F68.0 F16.0 F high70.6 F5The forecast, across the area
K9K721 UTC84 F68.0 F16.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KGBD19 UTC88 F72.0 F16.0 F high75.7 F1The forecast, across the area
KGBD23 UTC82 F66.0 F16.0 F high65.8 F5The forecast, across the area
KGCK19 UTC88 F72.0 F16.0 F high73.0 F1The forecast, across the area
KGCK22 UTC88 F72.0 F16.0 F high73.0 F4The forecast, across the area
KHLC20 UTC73 F57.0 F16.0 F high56.2 F2The forecast, across the area
KHYS19 UTC80 F64.0 F16.0 F high66.3 F1The forecast, across the area
KSPW00 UTC75 F59.0 F16.0 F high60.9 F6The forecast, across the area
KTQE00 UTC77 F61.0 F16.0 F high66.7 F6The forecast, across the area
KBZN23 UTC51 F35.1 F15.9 F high42.6 F11The forecast, across the area
KCNK21 UTC78 F62.1 F15.9 F high69.3 F3The forecast, across the area
KOEL17 UTC67 F51.1 F15.9 F high51.5 F5The forecast, across the area
K1NW23 UTC47 F62.8 F15.8 F low60.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KHPT04 UTC71 F55.4 F15.6 F high60.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KK8221 UTC73 F57.4 F15.6 F high58.0 F3The forecast, across the area
KMZJ20 UTC65 F80.6 F15.6 F low74.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KMZJ22 UTC65 F80.6 F15.6 F low75.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KTQK21 UTC82 F66.4 F15.6 F high70.1 F3The forecast, across the area
K36K22 UTC87 F71.6 F15.4 F high72.4 F4The forecast, across the area
KLQR21 UTC87 F71.6 F15.4 F high69.6 F3The forecast, across the area
K6S021 UTC60 F44.6 F15.4 F high43.8 F9Cannot be told
K9K723 UTC78 F62.6 F15.4 F high-5Cannot be told
KOEL19 UTC71 F55.6 F15.4 F high53.6 F1The forecast, across the area
K1NW06 UTC37 F52.2 F15.2 F low50.8 F6The forecast, at this station
K6S020 UTC58 F42.8 F15.2 F high42.3 F8Cannot be told
KLQR22 UTC85 F69.8 F15.2 F high66.0 F4The forecast, across the area
KBZN19 UTC44 F28.9 F15.1 F high39.8 F7The forecast, across the area
KHLC22 UTC73 F57.9 F15.1 F high58.0 F4The forecast, across the area
KRSL19 UTC80 F64.9 F15.1 F high70.3 F1The forecast, across the area
K1NW08 UTC35 F50.0 F15.0 F low48.9 F2The forecast, at this station
K6S019 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high40.5 F7The forecast, across the area
KBIE18 UTC74 F59.0 F15.0 F high59.6 F12The forecast, across the area
KBTM22 UTC52 F37.0 F15.0 F high37.6 F10The forecast, across the area
KCKP00 UTC74 F59.0 F15.0 F high58.3 F6The forecast, across the area
KCNK20 UTC78 F63.0 F15.0 F high78.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KDDC23 UTC85 F70.0 F15.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KGCK17 UTC81 F66.0 F15.0 F high69.4 F5The forecast, across the area
KHLC17 UTC67 F52.0 F15.0 F high52.4 F5The forecast, across the area
KHLC18 UTC69 F54.0 F15.0 F high54.2 F6The forecast, across the area
KHUT23 UTC83 F68.0 F15.0 F high75.0 F5The forecast, across the area
KMZJ18 UTC62 F77.0 F15.0 F low75.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KCNK19 UTC77 F62.1 F14.9 F high78.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KMEH16 UTC41 F26.1 F14.9 F high-4Cannot be told
KK8219 UTC71 F56.1 F14.9 F high55.5 F1The forecast, across the area
KOEL18 UTC69 F54.1 F14.9 F high52.1 F6The forecast, across the area
KMPR23 UTC81 F66.2 F14.8 F high80.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KMZJ19 UTC64 F78.8 F14.8 F low74.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KPTT23 UTC83 F68.2 F14.8 F high67.4 F5The forecast, across the area
KK8222 UTC72 F57.2 F14.8 F high58.5 F4The forecast, across the area
KHJH17 UTC69 F54.3 F14.7 F high55.9 F11The forecast, across the area
K3U322 UTC53 F38.3 F14.7 F high40.0 F10Cannot be told
K1BM20 UTC54 F39.4 F14.6 F high40.9 F8The forecast, across the area
KEKS13 UTC34 F19.4 F14.6 F high26.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKS22 UTC52 F37.4 F14.6 F high37.2 F10The forecast, across the area
KEKS23 UTC52 F37.4 F14.6 F high36.8 F11The forecast, at this station
KPHG19 UTC70 F55.4 F14.6 F high55.2 F1The forecast, across the area
KPMV21 UTC75 F60.4 F14.6 F high58.8 F15The forecast, across the area
KK8220 UTC72 F57.4 F14.6 F high56.0 F2The forecast, across the area
KOEL20 UTC72 F57.4 F14.6 F high56.1 F2The forecast, across the area
KLLR22 UTC57 F71.6 F14.6 F low-4Cannot be told
KFET00 UTC76 F61.5 F14.5 F high66.1 F6The forecast, across the area
KPMV22 UTC74 F59.5 F14.5 F high59.1 F16The forecast, across the area
K3K320 UTC86 F71.6 F14.4 F high69.7 F2The forecast, across the area
K3K321 UTC86 F71.6 F14.4 F high70.6 F3The forecast, across the area
KDNS00 UTC77 F62.6 F14.4 F high67.1 F6The forecast, across the area
KHPT05 UTC68 F53.6 F14.4 F high59.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KPHG18 UTC68 F53.6 F14.4 F high54.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KNRN21 UTC68 F53.6 F14.4 F high56.0 F3The forecast, across the area
KOEL21 UTC73 F58.6 F14.4 F high55.9 F3The forecast, across the area
KBTA00 UTC78 F63.7 F14.3 F high67.6 F6The forecast, across the area
K3U321 UTC53 F38.7 F14.3 F high39.1 F9Cannot be told
K3K715 UTC66 F51.8 F14.2 F high68.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KAEG13 UTC52 F66.2 F14.2 F low54.7 F1The station
KBIE19 UTC75 F60.8 F14.2 F high59.9 F13The forecast, across the area
KOEL16 UTC64 F49.8 F14.2 F high49.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KEKS03 UTC39 F24.8 F14.2 F high26.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KTMT14 UTC16 F30.2 F14.2 F low-2Cannot be told
K1BM21 UTC54 F39.9 F14.1 F high41.3 F9The forecast, across the area
KOFF21 UTC74 F59.9 F14.1 F high59.4 F15The forecast, across the area
KOFK00 UTC70 F55.9 F14.1 F high58.5 F6The forecast, across the area
KGBD18 UTC88 F73.9 F14.1 F high81.6 F6The forecast, across the area
KRSL22 UTC79 F64.9 F14.1 F high66.0 F4The forecast, across the area
K1IM21 UTC53 F39.0 F14.0 F high43.7 F9The forecast, at this station
KBTM21 UTC51 F37.0 F14.0 F high37.3 F9The forecast, across the area
KBTM23 UTC51 F37.0 F14.0 F high36.7 F11The forecast, at this station
KBZN18 UTC41 F27.0 F14.0 F high38.0 F6The forecast, across the area
KDDC20 UTC89 F75.0 F14.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KFNB21 UTC86 F72.0 F14.0 F high70.2 F15The forecast, across the area
KHLC23 UTC71 F57.0 F14.0 F high58.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KHYS12 UTC68 F54.0 F14.0 F high63.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KK8323 UTC80 F66.0 F14.0 F high64.9 F17The forecast, across the area
KLQR23 UTC82 F68.0 F14.0 F high65.0 F5The forecast, across the area
KOMA00 UTC82 F68.0 F14.0 F high68.8 F6The forecast, across the area
KPHG23 UTC73 F59.0 F14.0 F high58.0 F17The forecast, across the area
KRSL18 UTC80 F66.0 F14.0 F high74.8 F6The forecast, across the area
KO2605 UTC55 F41.0 F14.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KFNB20 UTC85 F71.1 F13.9 F high69.7 F14The forecast, across the area
K1IM20 UTC52 F38.1 F13.9 F high41.9 F8The forecast, across the area
KAFK18 UTC74 F60.1 F13.9 F high58.5 F12The forecast, across the area
KCNK22 UTC76 F62.1 F13.9 F high66.2 F4The forecast, across the area
KDIK21 UTC56 F42.1 F13.9 F high48.8 F9The forecast, at this station
KHYS16 UTC74 F60.1 F13.9 F high66.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KOLU00 UTC74 F60.1 F13.9 F high62.5 F6The forecast, across the area
KEKS20 UTC44 F30.2 F13.8 F high37.2 F2Cannot be told
K1AM17 UTC49 F35.2 F13.8 F high37.1 F5The forecast, at this station
K1BM19 UTC53 F39.2 F13.8 F high40.0 F7The forecast, across the area
K1IM22 UTC53 F39.2 F13.8 F high44.9 F10The forecast, at this station
K6S018 UTC53 F39.2 F13.8 F high38.4 F6The forecast, across the area
KCBF19 UTC71 F57.2 F13.8 F high58.5 F13The forecast, across the area
KCBF23 UTC71 F57.2 F13.8 F high59.0 F17The forecast, across the area
KDNS01 UTC71 F57.2 F13.8 F high62.1 F1The forecast, across the area
KMZJ23 UTC65 F78.8 F13.8 F low73.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KOFF20 UTC73 F59.2 F13.8 F high58.4 F14The forecast, across the area
KPHG20 UTC71 F57.2 F13.8 F high55.6 F2The forecast, across the area
KSDA21 UTC80 F66.2 F13.8 F high61.2 F15The forecast, across the area
KSHL00 UTC71 F57.2 F13.8 F high58.3 F6The forecast, across the area
KK8218 UTC69 F55.2 F13.8 F high53.9 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW09 UTC35 F48.7 F13.7 F low47.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KK8322 UTC83 F69.3 F13.7 F high68.0 F16The forecast, across the area
KMLE19 UTC70 F56.3 F13.7 F high58.4 F13The forecast, across the area
KMLE22 UTC72 F58.3 F13.7 F high59.8 F16The forecast, across the area
KTMT13 UTC16 F29.7 F13.7 F low-1Cannot be told
K6S022 UTC60 F46.4 F13.6 F high45.2 F10The forecast, across the area
KSXK00 UTC69 F55.4 F13.6 F high57.4 F6The forecast, across the area
K3U320 UTC51 F37.4 F13.6 F high38.6 F8Cannot be told
KCBK21 UTC69 F55.4 F13.6 F high53.7 F3The forecast, across the area
KO2608 UTC51 F37.4 F13.6 F high-2Cannot be told
KMYZ20 UTC78 F64.4 F13.6 F high70.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KMYZ21 UTC78 F64.4 F13.6 F high71.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KRDK21 UTC78 F64.4 F13.6 F high60.9 F15The forecast, across the area
KSDA19 UTC78 F64.4 F13.6 F high59.8 F13The forecast, across the area
K1MM21 UTC52 F38.5 F13.5 F high41.7 F9The forecast, across the area
K1NW11 UTC34 F47.5 F13.5 F low46.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KBVN00 UTC70 F56.5 F13.5 F high58.9 F6The forecast, across the area
K3K319 UTC85 F71.6 F13.4 F high70.6 F1The forecast, across the area
K3K322 UTC85 F71.6 F13.4 F high70.8 F4The forecast, across the area
KEKS02 UTC40 F26.6 F13.4 F high27.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KMYZ17 UTC76 F62.6 F13.4 F high67.1 F11The forecast, across the area
KRDK19 UTC76 F62.6 F13.4 F high59.5 F13The forecast, across the area
KSDA18 UTC76 F62.6 F13.4 F high59.2 F12The forecast, across the area
KSYF21 UTC67 F53.6 F13.4 F high57.0 F3The forecast, across the area
KSYF22 UTC67 F53.6 F13.4 F high58.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KNRN18 UTC67 F53.6 F13.4 F high52.0 F12The forecast, across the area

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 13, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.32.42.52.62.4+0.455%239,522
Storm Station correction2.32.42.52.62.5+0.273%239,522
National Weather Service forecast1.92.02.22.32.1-0.3-6,879
NOAA GFS2.32.42.62.72.5-0.0-6,942
NOAA HRRR2.32.42.52.72.5-1.3-6,579
NOAA NAM2.52.72.72.82.7-0.5-6,579
ECMWF IFS2.32.42.42.52.4-0.6-2,207
ECMWF AIFS1.91.91.91.91.9-0.7-1,104
Storm Station lead2.02.22.22.42.2-0.161%6,879
NBM, at the 70 airports2.02.12.22.32.2-0.161%6,941
Correction, at the 70 airports2.02.22.32.42.2+0.270%6,941

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.12.22.32.42.3+0.761%238,788
Storm Station correction2.12.12.22.32.2+0.171%238,788
National Weather Service forecast2.02.22.32.52.3+0.8-6,912
NOAA GFS2.72.83.03.12.9-2.1-6,975
NOAA HRRR2.22.32.52.52.4-0.1-6,612
NOAA NAM2.72.82.93.02.9+1.5-6,612
ECMWF IFS2.12.22.32.32.2+0.7-2,219
ECMWF AIFS2.02.02.02.02.0+0.5-1,108
Storm Station lead1.92.12.22.32.1+0.667%6,912
NBM, at the 70 airports1.92.02.12.32.1+0.667%6,975
Correction, at the 70 airports2.12.22.22.32.2+0.269%6,975

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.42.52.52.5+0.453%239,507
Storm Station correction2.42.52.52.52.5-0.273%239,507
National Weather Service forecast2.52.52.52.62.5+0.3-6,900
NOAA GFS2.72.72.72.82.7-0.2-6,980
NOAA HRRR2.52.62.72.82.6-0.7-6,617
NOAA NAM2.52.62.72.72.6-0.7-6,617
ECMWF IFS2.93.03.02.92.9-1.1-2,215
ECMWF AIFS2.92.93.03.03.0-0.8-1,104
Storm Station lead2.42.52.52.52.5+0.5-6,917
NBM, at the 70 airports2.52.52.52.52.5+0.653%6,979
Correction, at the 70 airports2.42.42.42.52.4-0.073%6,979

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)25.926.927.628.127.2-22.350%112,810
Storm Station correction20.921.722.122.821.9-8.182%112,810
National Weather Service forecast22.022.923.724.923.4-18.7-5,328
NOAA GFS30.431.031.330.430.8-20.0-5,387
NOAA HRRR27.627.628.127.027.5-12.2-5,032
NOAA NAM29.629.429.830.930.0-18.8-5,032
ECMWF IFS26.326.526.426.726.5-19.9-1,724
ECMWF AIFS21.821.421.421.021.4-18.0-868
Storm Station lead23.324.024.525.024.2-20.7-5,328
NBM, at the 70 airports23.123.924.624.524.1-20.550%5,390
Correction, at the 70 airports16.417.218.219.117.8-5.083%5,390

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0260.0270.0290.0290.320.250.15
Storm Station lead0.0200.0200.0210.0250.370.270.33
NBM, at the 70 airports0.0200.0200.0210.0210.370.260.31

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
556
Where snow fell or was forecast
114
Mean miss, depth
2.3 in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in438630.32
3 in148350.22
6 in31110.20

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.