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Live/Forecast engine/October 10, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 10, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 1,139 airfields, was level at 427 and further at 919. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,355 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 10, 2026: closer at 1,081, level at 416, further at 858; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,139 of 2,485 airfields closer than the NBM55 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more539
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F600
  3. level, within 0.1 F427
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F511
  5. further by 0.5 F or more408

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 2 of 70, level at 64 and further at 4. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,355 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 10, 2026: closer at 926, level at 511, further at 918; the 70 panel airports ringed

968 of 2,485 airfields closer than the NBM50 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more474
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F494
  3. level, within 0.1 F543
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F658
  5. further by 0.5 F or more316

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 70, level at 68 and further at 2. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,360 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 10, 2026: closer at 1,033, level at 492, further at 835; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,092 of 2,496 airfields closer than the NBM55 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more410
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph682
  3. level, within 0.1 mph516
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph609
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more279

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 20 of 70, level at 43 and further at 7. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,677 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 10, 2026: closer at 689, level at 387, further at 601; the 70 panel airports ringed

741 of 1,790 airfields closer than the NBM54 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more513
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points228
  3. level, within 1 point405
  4. further by 1 to 5 points254
  5. further by 5 points or more390

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 1 of 65, level at 58 and further at 6. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 10, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.4 F on average, and within 5 F in 89 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.3 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
230,079
Readings checked
115,278
Readings that failed
243
Misses over 10 F
889

Who came closest on October 10, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+5.1%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.2 FWind3.1 mphSky cover14.8 points
  2. 2NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.4 FDew point2.1 FWind3.1 mphSky cover19.9 points
  3. 3Storm StationThe engine’s own forecast, as every page prints it-1.2%Temperature2.4 FDew point2.1 FWind3.1 mphSky cover20.0 points
  4. 4ECMWF AIFSArtificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model-1.2%Temperature2.5 FDew point2.2 FWind3.0 mphSky cover19.3 points
  5. 5National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-4.7%Temperature2.4 FDew point2.3 FWind3.3 mphSky cover20.0 points
  6. 6ECMWF IFSIntegrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model-13.7%Temperature2.6 FDew point2.6 FWind3.2 mphSky cover23.1 points
  7. 7NOAA GFSGlobal Forecast System, NOAA’s global model-23.0%Temperature2.9 FDew point3.2 FWind3.2 mphSky cover22.4 points
  8. 8NOAA HRRRHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour-23.8%Temperature2.9 FDew point3.1 FWind3.0 mphSky cover24.8 points
  9. 9NOAA NAMNorth American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48-30.6%Temperature3.3 FDew point3.7 FWind2.9 mphSky cover23.3 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 10, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports-3.1%-3.5%-3.4%-4.1%-3.7%-1.6%-1.4%-0.5%-0.5%-1%+1%+1.3%+0.6%-0.3%+0.6%-1%-0.5%-1.8%+0.9%-0.5%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports-3.1%-0.4%-0.4%-2%-1.6%-14.5%-9.6%-6.9%-9.8%-10.2%-8.1%-5.5%-6%-6.2%-6.3%-0.4%-0.5%-2%+0.3%-0.6%
NOAA GFSat the 70 airports-22.1%-23%-22.4%-19.9%-21.8%-65.3%-54.5%-51.4%-53.7%-56.1%-5.4%-1%+0.3%-0.6%-1.5%-16.1%-15%-11.9%-9%-12.8%
NOAA HRRRat the 70 airports-20.4%-25.7%-25.7%-27.2%-24%-46.1%-46.4%-49.5%-60.3%-50.4%+1%+3.6%+5%+1.2%+1.9%-29.8%-21.3%-25.4%-22.8%-22.8%
NOAA NAMat the 70 airports-39.4%-38.7%-37.6%-40.2%-38.1%-101%-82.8%-65.3%-61.2%-75.4%+4.7%+8.7%+6.9%+8.7%+6.6%-23.2%-17.1%-14.6%-15.1%-15.6%
ECMWF IFSat the 70 airports-16.8%-11.7%-5.5%-7.3%-10.1%-28%-20.6%-22.2%-34.6%-26.3%-6.4%-2.3%-1.3%-0.3%-2.4%-16.4%-20%-15.1%-14%-16%
ECMWF AIFSat the 70 airports-5.3%-4.8%-5.5%-3.3%-4.6%-8.8%-5.7%-7.4%-10.3%-7.9%0%+3.6%+6%+8.1%+4.6%+1.1%+2.4%+2.4%+5.6%+3.2%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield+0.4%+0.8%+1.1%+1.8%+0.8%+3.8%+2.9%+2.1%+2%+2.9%+2.3%+2.2%+2.2%+2.4%+2.2%+1%+2.8%+4.3%+4.2%+3.2%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 10, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 10, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked115,278 readings, 243 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day2,518,832 forecast hoursEach large miss explained889 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned33,897 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 115,278 readings, 243 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 2,518,832 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 889 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 33,897 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.44 F, the NBM 2.35 FBehind today by 0.09 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.10 F, the NBM 2.08 FBehind today by 0.02 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 3.10 mph, the NBM 3.12 mphAhead today by 0.02 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 19.97 points, the NBM 19.87 pointsBehind today by 0.10 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it73 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 54Too wide today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.54 against 0.54, 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.01
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.34 against 0.36 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.02
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 10, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 10, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMHRRRGFSNBMCorrectionECMWF IFSStorm StationECMWF AIFSNWS forecast
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 10, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNWS forecastNBMGFSStorm StationECMWF IFSCorrectionHRRRECMWF AIFSNAM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 10, 202602461 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMHRRRGFSECMWF IFSNBMCorrectionECMWF AIFSNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 10, 202601020301 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hHRRRNBMNAMECMWF IFSCorrectionGFSNWS forecastStorm StationECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.4 F warmStorm Station0.3 F coolNWS forecast0.3 F coolGFSevenHRRR0.7 F coolNAM0.4 F coolECMWF IFS0.5 F coolECMWF AIFS0.7 F coolCorrection0.2 F warm

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM1.4 mph strongStorm Station1.6 mph strongNWS forecast1.6 mph strongGFS0.1 mph strongHRRR0.4 mph lightNAM0.3 mph lightECMWF IFS1.1 mph lightECMWF AIFS0.8 mph lightCorrection1.1 mph strong

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.6 F moistStorm Station0.4 F moistNWS forecast0.6 F moistGFS2.2 F dryHRRR1.7 F dryNAM2.6 F moistECMWF IFS0.8 F moistECMWF AIFS0.1 F dryCorrection0.1 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM11.3 points clearStorm Station14.9 points clearNWS forecast14.9 points clearGFS5.1 points cloudyHRRRevenNAM13.9 points clearECMWF IFS5.3 points clearECMWF AIFS1.6 points clearCorrection1.9 points cloudy

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KBKN Blackwell Tonkawa Municipal AirportOK0.5 F0.3 F warm30-
KMTH Florida Keys Marathon International AirportFL0.6 F0.3 F cool100-
PAUT Akutan AirportAK0.6 F0.1 F warm100-
KMIA Miami International AirportFL0.6 F0.3 F warm100-
PAGM Gambell AirportAK0.7 Feven100-
PAOU Nelson Lagoon AirportAK0.7 Feven100-
KOXR Oxnard AirportCA0.7 F0.2 F cool100-
PAVC King Cove AirportAK0.7 Feven96-
KFLL Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International AirportFL0.7 F0.4 F warm100-
KHHF Hemphill County AirportTX0.7 F0.3 F cool21-
KHST Homestead Air Reserve BaseFL0.7 F0.4 F cool79-
KPSX Palacios Municipal AirportTX0.7 F0.5 F warm29-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KEKS Ennis Big Sky AirportMT18.0 F17.3 F cool92the forecast, at this station 13, the station 2, cannot be told 1
KLGU Logan-Cache AirportUT11.5 F11.5 F cool96the forecast, at this station 6
KTVL Lake Tahoe AirportCA11.4 F11.4 F cool100the forecast, across the area 1
KSNT-11.1 F11.1 F cool100-
KC99-10.6 F10.6 F cool100the forecast, at this station 9
KTRK Truckee Tahoe AirportCA10.5 F9.7 F cool87the forecast, at this station 5, the forecast, across the area 2
KSMN Lemhi County AirportID10.2 F10.2 F cool100cannot be told 3
KGVW-10.1 F10.1 F warm59the station 6, the forecast, at this station 4
KBAN-9.5 F9.5 F cool83cannot be told 4
KSXT-9.1 F9.0 F warm100-
KI23 Fayette County AirportOH8.9 F7.5 F warm25the forecast, across the area 1
KSHR Sheridan County AirportWY8.9 F6.0 F cool100cannot be told 8

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station63The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area71Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station626Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told129Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 10, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
K0D803 UTC68 F8.6 F59.4 F high-3The station
K0D802 UTC68 F14.0 F54.0 F high-2The station
KMHT13 UTC46 F10.0 F36.0 F high50.4 F1The station
KMHT11 UTC39 F6.1 F32.9 F high39.0 F5The station
KMHT10 UTC40 F8.1 F31.9 F high42.6 F4The station
KMHT12 UTC40 F8.1 F31.9 F high43.8 F6The station
KRYN15 UTC77 F107.6 F30.6 F low78.2 F3The station
K7L203 UTC64 F33.8 F30.2 F high64.9 F3The station
K7L204 UTC63 F37.4 F25.6 F high65.7 F4The station
KEKS19 UTC39 F64.4 F25.4 F low55.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKS20 UTC41 F66.2 F25.2 F low52.2 F2The station
KEKS18 UTC36 F60.8 F24.8 F low55.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KEKS17 UTC37 F60.8 F23.8 F low53.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KEKS16 UTC38 F60.8 F22.8 F low49.3 F4The station
KSVE13 UTC43 F62.6 F19.6 F low-1Cannot be told
KTRK14 UTC36 F55.4 F19.4 F low54.4 F2The forecast, across the area
KTRK15 UTC36 F55.4 F19.4 F low53.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KLGU14 UTC52 F71.1 F19.1 F low70.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KSHR13 UTC53 F72.0 F19.0 F low-1Cannot be told
KDYT23 UTC76 F57.2 F18.8 F high83.6 F5The station
KSUW23 UTC79 F60.3 F18.7 F high84.0 F5The station
KDYT21 UTC77 F59.0 F18.0 F high87.3 F3The station
KDYT22 UTC77 F59.0 F18.0 F high86.6 F4The station
KSVE14 UTC41 F59.0 F18.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KGVW09 UTC65 F82.4 F17.4 F low65.4 F3The station
KDYT20 UTC76 F59.0 F17.0 F high87.1 F2The station
KLGU15 UTC55 F72.0 F17.0 F low65.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KLVM23 UTC59 F42.1 F16.9 F high45.3 F5The forecast, across the area
KSUW22 UTC81 F64.2 F16.8 F high87.0 F4The station
KGVW11 UTC64 F80.6 F16.6 F low65.7 F5The station
KGVW12 UTC64 F80.6 F16.6 F low65.9 F6The station
KGVW13 UTC64 F80.6 F16.6 F low69.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC66 F82.4 F16.4 F low67.7 F2The station
KEKS15 UTC39 F55.4 F16.4 F low48.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KTRK13 UTC39 F55.4 F16.4 F low56.2 F1The forecast, across the area
KEKS06 UTC50 F66.2 F16.2 F low57.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KPAH11 UTC59 F75.2 F16.2 F low56.9 F5The station
KDWX21 UTC67 F50.9 F16.1 F high59.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KLGU13 UTC55 F71.1 F16.1 F low70.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KDYT19 UTC75 F59.0 F16.0 F high84.8 F1The station
KEKS12 UTC43 F59.0 F16.0 F low52.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KSAA22 UTC66 F50.0 F16.0 F high63.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KSHR11 UTC57 F73.0 F16.0 F low-5Cannot be told
KSMN12 UTC43 F59.0 F16.0 F low-6Cannot be told
KTRK16 UTC43 F59.0 F16.0 F low61.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KSHR10 UTC58 F73.9 F15.9 F low-4Cannot be told
KC9918 UTC36 F51.8 F15.8 F low47.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KSUW21 UTC82 F66.2 F15.8 F high87.6 F3The station
KC9923 UTC38 F53.6 F15.6 F low46.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC65 F80.6 F15.6 F low64.6 F4The station
KIWA01 UTC96 F80.6 F15.4 F high96.4 F1The station
KGVW07 UTC67 F82.4 F15.4 F low69.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KC9916 UTC31 F46.4 F15.4 F low42.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KWYS13 UTC40 F55.4 F15.4 F low-1Cannot be told
KU9622 UTC77 F61.7 F15.3 F high-4Cannot be told
KEKS05 UTC51 F66.2 F15.2 F low60.1 F5Cannot be told
KEKS13 UTC42 F57.2 F15.2 F low52.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KSUW19 UTC80 F64.8 F15.2 F high85.2 F1The station
KLGU12 UTC56 F71.1 F15.1 F low72.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KAFO15 UTC44 F59.0 F15.0 F low52.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KC9917 UTC35 F50.0 F15.0 F low46.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KEKS11 UTC44 F59.0 F15.0 F low53.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KSDL23 UTC88 F73.0 F15.0 F high77.3 F5The forecast, across the area
K1NW23 UTC68 F82.9 F14.9 F low81.6 F5The forecast, at this station
K33V19 UTC63 F48.2 F14.8 F high55.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KC9915 UTC28 F42.8 F14.8 F low41.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KC9922 UTC39 F53.6 F14.6 F low46.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KSVE10 UTC48 F62.6 F14.6 F low-4Cannot be told
KWYS09 UTC39 F53.6 F14.6 F low-3Cannot be told
KMZJ19 UTC77 F91.4 F14.4 F low90.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC68 F82.4 F14.4 F low68.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC68 F82.4 F14.4 F low68.7 F6The station
KD5710 UTC50 F35.6 F14.4 F high48.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KTRK12 UTC41 F55.4 F14.4 F low54.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KTRK11 UTC43 F57.2 F14.2 F low56.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KDLN21 UTC61 F46.9 F14.1 F high46.7 F3Cannot be told
KFOK11 UTC54 F39.9 F14.1 F high45.0 F23The forecast, at this station
KL3514 UTC44 F58.1 F14.1 F low-2Cannot be told
KDWH02 UTC79 F64.9 F14.1 F high72.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KFFZ22 UTC90 F75.9 F14.1 F high78.2 F4The forecast, across the area
KSHR12 UTC57 F71.1 F14.1 F low-6Cannot be told
KBAN13 UTC38 F52.0 F14.0 F low-1Cannot be told
KBAN16 UTC45 F59.0 F14.0 F low-4Cannot be told
KDLN22 UTC60 F46.0 F14.0 F high45.1 F4Cannot be told
KDVT23 UTC86 F72.0 F14.0 F high76.8 F5The forecast, across the area
KEKS10 UTC45 F59.0 F14.0 F low54.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KFOK05 UTC57 F43.0 F14.0 F high48.4 F17The forecast, at this station
KGEY21 UTC78 F64.0 F14.0 F high68.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KHEI06 UTC55 F41.0 F14.0 F high63.2 F6The station
KLGU10 UTC59 F73.0 F14.0 F low70.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KLGU11 UTC58 F72.0 F14.0 F low71.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KSMN04 UTC56 F70.0 F14.0 F low-4Cannot be told
KSMN11 UTC45 F59.0 F14.0 F low-5Cannot be told
KSHR09 UTC60 F73.9 F13.9 F low-3Cannot be told
KSUW20 UTC81 F67.1 F13.9 F high87.3 F2The station
KDLN23 UTC58 F44.1 F13.9 F high43.1 F5Cannot be told
KFOK06 UTC56 F42.1 F13.9 F high47.4 F18The forecast, at this station
KFOK07 UTC56 F42.1 F13.9 F high47.5 F19The forecast, at this station
K46U15 UTC47 F60.8 F13.8 F low57.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KEKS09 UTC47 F60.8 F13.8 F low58.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KGYR21 UTC89 F75.2 F13.8 F high79.5 F3The forecast, across the area
KGYR22 UTC89 F75.2 F13.8 F high79.6 F4The forecast, across the area
K1MM02 UTC66 F52.3 F13.7 F high64.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KBCK13 UTC61 F47.3 F13.7 F high57.6 F1The station
KETN13 UTC63 F49.3 F13.7 F high58.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KAFO14 UTC40 F53.6 F13.6 F low44.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KD5709 UTC51 F37.4 F13.6 F high50.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KHCR14 UTC44 F57.6 F13.6 F low63.2 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW21 UTC72 F85.6 F13.6 F low84.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KBXK20 UTC87 F73.4 F13.6 F high93.8 F2The station
KMZJ18 UTC76 F89.6 F13.6 F low89.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KSUW18 UTC78 F64.4 F13.6 F high81.4 F6The station
KGVW04 UTC69 F82.4 F13.4 F low70.8 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW18 UTC69 F82.2 F13.2 F low81.9 F6The forecast, at this station
K9Y107 UTC56 F42.8 F13.2 F high48.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KD5706 UTC56 F42.8 F13.2 F high50.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KHTH14 UTC53 F66.2 F13.2 F low-2Cannot be told
KBAN15 UTC38 F51.1 F13.1 F low-3Cannot be told
K1NW20 UTC72 F85.1 F13.1 F low84.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KDVT22 UTC87 F73.9 F13.1 F high77.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KFFZ23 UTC89 F75.9 F13.1 F high77.5 F5The forecast, across the area
KSGR02 UTC80 F66.9 F13.1 F high73.1 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW22 UTC71 F84.0 F13.0 F low83.5 F4The forecast, at this station
K4S120 UTC46 F59.0 F13.0 F low62.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KAIA03 UTC67 F54.0 F13.0 F high67.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KC9914 UTC28 F41.0 F13.0 F low38.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KC9919 UTC37 F50.0 F13.0 F low46.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KCHD23 UTC90 F77.0 F13.0 F high78.4 F5The forecast, across the area
KDWH01 UTC81 F68.0 F13.0 F high76.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KDWH03 UTC77 F64.0 F13.0 F high69.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KDYT18 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high80.3 F6The station
KEVW23 UTC61 F48.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KFOK03 UTC58 F45.0 F13.0 F high48.8 F15The forecast, at this station
KFYV13 UTC65 F52.0 F13.0 F high60.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KGEU21 UTC90 F77.0 F13.0 F high79.2 F3The forecast, across the area
KJDN04 UTC61 F48.0 F13.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KLIC08 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high59.7 F2The station
KLIC11 UTC52 F39.0 F13.0 F high61.4 F5The station
KLIC12 UTC52 F39.0 F13.0 F high61.0 F6The station
KNYL23 UTC90 F77.0 F13.0 F high79.7 F11Cannot be told
KRNM20 UTC81 F68.0 F13.0 F high70.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KSDL22 UTC88 F75.0 F13.0 F high78.0 F4The forecast, across the area
KSHR06 UTC60 F73.0 F13.0 F low-6Cannot be told
KSHR07 UTC60 F73.0 F13.0 F low-1Cannot be told
KSHR08 UTC60 F73.0 F13.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KT7406 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high65.1 F18The forecast, at this station
KTVL14 UTC41 F54.0 F13.0 F low52.5 F2The forecast, across the area
KWJF13 UTC59 F72.0 F13.0 F low65.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KWJF14 UTC59 F72.0 F13.0 F low65.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KA3922 UTC90 F77.0 F13.0 F high78.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KBAN14 UTC36 F48.9 F12.9 F low-2Cannot be told
KL3510 UTC45 F57.9 F12.9 F low-4Cannot be told
KL3513 UTC45 F57.9 F12.9 F low-1Cannot be told
KMVY06 UTC55 F42.1 F12.9 F high49.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KMVY07 UTC55 F42.1 F12.9 F high49.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KBDU14 UTC57 F69.8 F12.8 F low60.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KC9921 UTC39 F51.8 F12.8 F low46.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KCXP14 UTC48 F60.8 F12.8 F low57.7 F2The forecast, across the area
KD5708 UTC52 F39.2 F12.8 F high48.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KI2322 UTC70 F57.2 F12.8 F high58.9 F4The forecast, across the area
KMMU10 UTC52 F39.2 F12.8 F high47.5 F22The forecast, at this station
KMZJ00 UTC84 F96.8 F12.8 F low92.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KRZT22 UTC70 F57.2 F12.8 F high59.6 F4The forecast, across the area
KT7408 UTC70 F57.2 F12.8 F high63.8 F20The forecast, at this station
KUYF22 UTC70 F57.2 F12.8 F high59.0 F4The forecast, across the area
KHMT21 UTC83 F70.3 F12.7 F high73.6 F3The forecast, at this station
K5C107 UTC68 F55.4 F12.6 F high59.5 F19The forecast, at this station
KFME06 UTC59 F46.4 F12.6 F high53.1 F18The forecast, at this station
KJTC13 UTC50 F62.6 F12.6 F low47.7 F1The station
KSVE09 UTC50 F62.6 F12.6 F low-3Cannot be told
KTRK17 UTC50 F62.6 F12.6 F low63.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KUYF23 UTC68 F55.4 F12.6 F high57.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KCKM22 UTC68 F80.6 F12.6 F low77.6 F22The forecast, at this station
KCKM23 UTC68 F80.6 F12.6 F low-23Cannot be told
KDRP21 UTC68 F80.6 F12.6 F low78.2 F21The forecast, at this station
KEKS01 UTC59 F71.6 F12.6 F low68.6 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW19 UTC71 F83.5 F12.5 F low83.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KAFF10 UTC52 F64.4 F12.4 F low57.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KEKS00 UTC61 F73.4 F12.4 F low75.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KEKS04 UTC52 F64.4 F12.4 F low60.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ20 UTC79 F91.4 F12.4 F low90.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KSEE20 UTC84 F71.6 F12.4 F high72.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KSVE08 UTC52 F64.4 F12.4 F low-2Cannot be told
K33V13 UTC34 F46.4 F12.4 F low41.5 F1The forecast, at this station
K5C109 UTC66 F53.6 F12.4 F high58.6 F21The forecast, at this station
K9Y106 UTC57 F44.6 F12.4 F high51.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KERV13 UTC64 F51.6 F12.4 F high56.3 F25The forecast, at this station
KFYJ05 UTC66 F53.6 F12.4 F high57.3 F17The forecast, at this station
KU6922 UTC66 F53.6 F12.4 F high61.2 F4The forecast, at this station
K1MM03 UTC62 F49.8 F12.2 F high62.4 F3The forecast, at this station
K5C112 UTC64 F51.8 F12.2 F high57.6 F24The forecast, at this station
K9Y108 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high48.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KCHD22 UTC91 F78.8 F12.2 F high78.6 F4The forecast, across the area
KCMY13 UTC62 F49.8 F12.2 F high57.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KMMU05 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high50.8 F17The forecast, at this station
KT7404 UTC73 F60.8 F12.2 F high67.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KBWD08 UTC67 F54.9 F12.1 F high62.7 F20The forecast, at this station
KCDR06 UTC68 F55.9 F12.1 F high-6Cannot be told
KERV06 UTC68 F55.9 F12.1 F high61.8 F18The forecast, at this station
KERV09 UTC65 F52.9 F12.1 F high58.2 F21The forecast, at this station

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 10, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.52.52.62.82.6+0.454%230,079
Storm Station correction2.52.52.62.72.6+0.273%230,079
National Weather Service forecast2.32.32.42.52.4-0.3-6,956
NOAA GFS2.82.82.93.02.9-0.0-6,966
NOAA HRRR2.72.93.03.12.9-0.7-6,660
NOAA NAM3.13.23.33.53.3-0.4-6,660
ECMWF IFS2.62.62.52.62.6-0.5-2,225
ECMWF AIFS2.42.42.52.52.5-0.7-1,119
Storm Station lead2.32.42.52.62.4-0.361%6,956
NBM, at the 70 airports2.32.32.42.52.4-0.261%6,965
Correction, at the 70 airports2.22.32.32.42.3+0.373%6,965

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.42.42.42.4+0.664%230,076
Storm Station correction2.32.32.42.42.3+0.173%230,076
National Weather Service forecast2.22.32.32.42.3+0.6-6,953
NOAA GFS3.23.23.33.33.3-2.2-6,963
NOAA HRRR2.83.13.23.43.1-1.7-6,657
NOAA NAM3.93.83.63.53.7+2.6-6,657
ECMWF IFS2.52.52.62.92.6+0.8-2,225
ECMWF AIFS2.12.22.32.42.3-0.1-1,111
Storm Station lead2.02.12.22.12.1+0.473%6,953
NBM, at the 70 airports1.92.12.22.12.1+0.473%6,962
Correction, at the 70 airports2.12.22.32.32.2+0.173%6,962

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)3.13.13.23.33.2+1.448%230,292
Storm Station correction3.03.13.13.23.1+1.170%230,292
National Weather Service forecast3.23.33.43.43.3+1.6-6,978
NOAA GFS3.13.13.23.23.2+0.1-6,988
NOAA HRRR3.03.03.03.23.0-0.4-6,682
NOAA NAM2.82.83.02.92.9-0.3-6,682
ECMWF IFS3.23.23.23.23.2-1.1-2,233
ECMWF AIFS3.03.03.03.03.0-0.8-1,119
Storm Station lead3.03.03.13.23.1+1.6-6,978
NBM, at the 70 airports3.03.13.23.23.1+1.648%6,986
Correction, at the 70 airports3.03.13.13.23.1+1.269%6,986

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)23.023.723.924.123.7-11.350%84,900
Storm Station correction22.823.022.923.122.9+1.972%84,900
National Weather Service forecast19.419.820.020.720.0-14.9-5,182
NOAA GFS22.422.721.922.622.4+5.1-5,192
NOAA HRRR25.123.924.625.424.8+0.0-4,886
NOAA NAM23.823.122.523.923.3-13.9-4,886
ECMWF IFS22.523.722.623.623.1-5.3-1,673
ECMWF AIFS19.119.319.119.619.3-1.6-855
Storm Station lead19.519.819.920.520.0-14.9-5,182
NBM, at the 70 airports19.319.719.620.719.9-14.956%5,194
Correction, at the 70 airports15.215.014.314.814.8+0.486%5,194

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0360.0370.0390.0400.460.360.26
Storm Station lead0.0290.0320.0350.0420.540.340.37
NBM, at the 70 airports0.0280.0320.0340.0360.540.360.40

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
429
Where snow fell or was forecast
20
Mean miss, depth
1.4 in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in2990.09
3 in0200.00
6 in000-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.