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Live/Forecast engine/October 8, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 8, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 1,338 airfields, was level at 477 and further at 682. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,366 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 8, 2026: closer at 1,255, level at 462, further at 649; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,338 of 2,497 airfields closer than the NBM66 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more718
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F620
  3. level, within 0.1 F477
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F488
  5. further by 0.5 F or more194

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 70, level at 63 and further at 7. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,365 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 8, 2026: closer at 994, level at 560, further at 811; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,062 of 2,496 airfields closer than the NBM55 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more480
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F582
  3. level, within 0.1 F582
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F548
  5. further by 0.5 F or more304

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 3 of 70, level at 65 and further at 2. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,371 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 8, 2026: closer at 900, level at 584, further at 887; the 70 panel airports ringed

973 of 2,508 airfields closer than the NBM51 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more363
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph610
  3. level, within 0.1 mph611
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph641
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more283

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 15 of 70, level at 49 and further at 6. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,398 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 8, 2026: closer at 822, level at 261, further at 315; the 70 panel airports ringed

870 of 1,485 airfields closer than the NBM72 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more667
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points203
  3. level, within 1 point275
  4. further by 1 to 5 points129
  5. further by 5 points or more211

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 6 of 66, level at 56 and further at 4. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 8, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.1 F on average, and within 5 F in 94 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.4 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
241,984
Readings checked
119,135
Readings that failed
323
Misses over 10 F
575

Who came closest on October 8, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+10.2%Temperature1.9 FDew point2.2 FWind2.3 mphSky cover15.6 points
  2. 2National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database+0.2%Temperature2.0 FDew point2.3 FWind2.5 mphSky cover21.1 points
  3. 3NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.0 FDew point2.2 FWind2.5 mphSky cover22.7 points
  4. 4Storm StationThe engine’s own forecast, as every page prints it-0.2%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.2 FWind2.4 mphSky cover22.5 points
  5. 5ECMWF AIFSArtificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model-6.9%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.4 FWind2.9 mphSky cover18.9 points
  6. 6ECMWF IFSIntegrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model-18.8%Temperature2.5 FDew point2.7 FWind3.0 mphSky cover24.6 points
  7. 7NOAA HRRRHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour-29.5%Temperature2.6 FDew point3.3 FWind2.7 mphSky cover29.8 points
  8. 8NOAA NAMNorth American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48-31.9%Temperature2.9 FDew point3.5 FWind2.6 mphSky cover26.7 points
  9. 9NOAA GFSGlobal Forecast System, NOAA’s global model-41.4%Temperature2.9 FDew point4.1 FWind2.7 mphSky cover28.2 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 8, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports-1.6%-1.5%-2.5%-5.6%-2.9%-0.9%+1.4%+0.5%-0.9%-0.1%+2%+2.4%+1.2%-0.4%+1.1%+0.3%+0.3%+0.7%+2.1%+0.9%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports0%-3.1%-4.5%+1.4%-1.2%+0.9%-0.9%-6.9%-12.2%-5.2%+4.9%+1.2%-2.9%-3.2%-0.1%+5.6%+7.9%+8.2%+7.2%+7.2%
NOAA GFSat the 70 airports-47.2%-44.9%-42.1%-40.2%-43.1%-87.3%-86.6%-93.1%-83.9%-87.4%-8.9%-11%-10.2%-12.5%-10.8%-23.5%-22.3%-23%-27.1%-24.1%
NOAA HRRRat the 70 airports-29.5%-30.1%-27.2%-23.8%-26.6%-35.8%-46.3%-59%-62.6%-52.2%-2.8%-6.9%-9.4%-11.3%-8.1%-29.1%-25.9%-31.1%-36.9%-31.1%
NOAA NAMat the 70 airports-49.2%-50.5%-41.6%-41.1%-44.4%-58%-58.3%-63.6%-63.9%-61.6%-2.4%-2.4%-4.9%-4.8%-4.2%-18.7%-13.6%-16.1%-20.7%-17.5%
ECMWF IFSat the 70 airports-30.1%-25%-19.3%-19.2%-22.8%-17.9%-21.3%-24.4%-27.8%-22.8%-20.2%-21.1%-23.8%-21%-21.5%-6.8%-5.7%-7.1%-12.5%-8.1%
ECMWF AIFSat the 70 airports-16.1%-18.4%-14.4%-9.8%-14.4%-10.4%-10.6%-13.8%-11.3%-11.4%-17.4%-17.9%-20.9%-19%-18.8%+16.3%+18.4%+17.9%+16%+17.1%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield+11.2%+12.6%+11.8%+11.2%+11.9%+5.9%+5.4%+4.1%+5.2%+5.3%+1.7%+1.7%+1.3%+1.3%+1.3%+19%+18.8%+19.1%+19.3%+19%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 8, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 8, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked119,135 readings, 323 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day2,528,154 forecast hoursEach large miss explained575 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned33,415 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 119,135 readings, 323 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 2,528,154 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 575 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 33,415 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.08 F, the NBM 2.02 FBehind today by 0.06 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.19 F, the NBM 2.19 FLevel today
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.43 mph, the NBM 2.46 mphAhead today by 0.03 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 22.53 points, the NBM 22.74 pointsAhead today by 0.21 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it70 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 48On target today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.28 against 0.31, 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.03
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.24 against 0.25 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.01
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 8, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 8, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMGFSNBMHRRRECMWF IFSCorrectionECMWF AIFSStorm StationNWS forecast
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 8, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hECMWF IFSECMWF AIFSGFSHRRRNAMNWS forecastStorm StationNBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 8, 202602461 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFSNAMHRRRECMWF IFSNWS forecastECMWF AIFSNBMCorrectionStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 8, 20260102030401 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hHRRRNBMGFSNAMECMWF IFSCorrectionStorm StationNWS forecastECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.5 F warmStorm Station0.4 F coolNWS forecast0.3 F coolGFS0.5 F warmHRRR0.6 F coolNAM0.2 F warmECMWF IFS0.6 F coolECMWF AIFS1.0 F coolCorrection0.5 F warm

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.2 mph strongStorm Station0.4 mph strongNWS forecast0.3 mph strongGFSevenHRRR0.1 mph lightNAM0.2 mph lightECMWF IFS0.9 mph lightECMWF AIFS0.7 mph lightCorrection0.1 mph light

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.7 F moistStorm Station0.2 F moistNWS forecast0.3 F moistGFS3.0 F dryHRRR2.1 F dryNAM2.3 F moistECMWF IFS0.8 F moistECMWF AIFS0.7 F dryCorrection0.2 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM18.9 points clearStorm Station18.3 points clearNWS forecast15.1 points clearGFS6.6 points clearHRRR7.0 points clearNAM18.6 points clearECMWF IFS12.6 points clearECMWF AIFS10.3 points clearCorrection5.2 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KROW Roswell Air Center AirportNM0.5 F0.3 F warm21-
KCOM Coleman Municipal AirportTX0.6 Feven25-
KVAF-0.6 F0.4 F warm100-
PAAK Atka AirportAK0.7 F0.4 F cool100-
KBDN Bend Municipal AirportOR0.8 F0.1 F warm75-
KLAL Lakeland Linder International AirportFL0.8 Feven100-
PAEH Cape Newenham LRRS AirportAK0.8 F0.6 F cool100-
PASH Shishmaref AirportAK0.8 F0.3 F warm100-
KY51 Viroqua Municipal AirportWI0.8 F0.2 F warm100-
PAGN Angoon Seaplane BaseAK0.8 F0.4 F cool100-
KJFZ Tazewell County AirportVA0.8 F0.5 F cool25-
KALI Alice International AirportTX0.8 F0.1 F cool100-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
PABT Bettles AirportAK8.8 F3.0 F warm100cannot be told 1
PARC Arctic Village AirportAK7.6 F7.6 F cool12-
KTKV Tomahawk Regional AirportWI7.5 F7.5 F warm100the forecast, at this station 6
PABA Barter Island Long Range Radar Station AirportAK6.6 F3.4 F warm100cannot be told 5
KEKS Ennis Big Sky AirportMT6.3 F5.5 F warm100the forecast, at this station 12, cannot be told 1
PAAD Point Thomson AirstripAK5.7 F1.1 F cool100cannot be told 3
KNSI San Nicolas Island Nolf AirportCA5.6 F3.3 F warm96cannot be told 1
KBVN Albion Municipal Airport/Ron Levander FieldNE5.5 F3.5 F warm100-
KFWS Fort Worth Spinks AirportTX5.5 F4.2 F warm100the forecast, at this station 1
KCBE-5.5 F4.5 F cool100the forecast, at this station 1
KGRN Gordon Municipal AirportNE5.4 F4.5 F warm100cannot be told 4
KBBW Broken Bow Municipal AirportNE5.3 F2.5 F warm100the forecast, at this station 1

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station29The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area3Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station429Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told114Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 8, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
PABT12 UTC18 F70.0 F52.0 F low-6Cannot be told
KGVW12 UTC57 F80.6 F23.6 F low72.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC59 F82.4 F23.4 F low73.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW11 UTC58 F80.6 F22.6 F low73.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW09 UTC60 F82.4 F22.4 F low75.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC62 F84.2 F22.2 F low74.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW07 UTC62 F84.2 F22.2 F low74.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC61 F82.4 F21.4 F low74.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low75.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC61 F80.6 F19.6 F low73.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW04 UTC65 F84.2 F19.2 F low78.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KIWA22 UTC101 F82.4 F18.6 F high100.2 F4The station
KGVW03 UTC66 F84.2 F18.2 F low78.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KEKS08 UTC59 F41.0 F18.0 F high37.0 F2Cannot be told
KEKS10 UTC57 F39.2 F17.8 F high35.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KO2606 UTC75 F57.2 F17.8 F high-6The station
KEKS13 UTC55 F37.4 F17.6 F high36.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW14 UTC65 F82.4 F17.4 F low78.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KO2603 UTC80 F62.6 F17.4 F high-3The station
KO2609 UTC71 F53.6 F17.4 F high-3Cannot be told
KEKS07 UTC60 F42.8 F17.2 F high38.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KO2604 UTC78 F60.8 F17.2 F high-4The station
KEKS11 UTC56 F39.2 F16.8 F high36.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KO2607 UTC74 F57.2 F16.8 F high-1Cannot be told
KEKS14 UTC54 F37.4 F16.6 F high35.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KO2608 UTC72 F55.4 F16.6 F high-2The station
KGVW02 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low80.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KMEH14 UTC43 F27.0 F16.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KMEH15 UTC46 F30.0 F16.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KMEH16 UTC55 F39.0 F16.0 F high-4The station
K1NW01 UTC58 F73.9 F15.9 F low66.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKS12 UTC55 F39.2 F15.8 F high36.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KEKS06 UTC60 F44.6 F15.4 F high47.4 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW02 UTC54 F69.3 F15.3 F low63.4 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW17 UTC63 F78.3 F15.3 F low76.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KPRS23 UTC86 F70.7 F15.3 F high-5Cannot be told
KEKS09 UTC58 F42.8 F15.2 F high35.0 F3The forecast, at this station
PABA17 UTC17 F1.9 F15.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KIWA21 UTC101 F86.0 F15.0 F high99.2 F3The station
KSFO00 UTC81 F66.0 F15.0 F high89.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KMVY02 UTC59 F44.1 F14.9 F high55.3 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW00 UTC63 F77.7 F14.7 F low75.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KEKS05 UTC61 F46.4 F14.6 F high45.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KO2605 UTC77 F62.6 F14.4 F high-5Cannot be told
K1NW18 UTC67 F81.3 F14.3 F low80.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KMEH12 UTC43 F28.9 F14.1 F high-6Cannot be told
KMEH13 UTC43 F28.9 F14.1 F high-1Cannot be told
PABA15 UTC16 F1.9 F14.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KSXT15 UTC55 F69.1 F14.1 F low-3Cannot be told
KTVL15 UTC51 F37.0 F14.0 F high44.8 F3The forecast, at this station
PPIZ16 UTC22 F8.1 F13.9 F high-4Cannot be told
KEKS04 UTC62 F48.2 F13.8 F high52.0 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW23 UTC72 F85.6 F13.6 F low84.2 F5The forecast, at this station
K1AM11 UTC54 F40.5 F13.5 F high47.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KETN13 UTC65 F51.6 F13.4 F high56.8 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW16 UTC57 F70.3 F13.3 F low71.6 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW22 UTC74 F87.3 F13.3 F low84.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGRN04 UTC58 F44.8 F13.2 F high-4Cannot be told
KO2602 UTC83 F69.8 F13.2 F high-2Cannot be told
KAXX14 UTC42 F28.8 F13.2 F high-2Cannot be told
KLIC13 UTC53 F39.9 F13.1 F high54.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KMEH11 UTC44 F30.9 F13.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KNFG12 UTC71 F57.9 F13.1 F high71.1 F6The station
KSXT16 UTC58 F71.1 F13.1 F low-4Cannot be told
KBKE07 UTC52 F39.0 F13.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KFYV12 UTC65 F52.0 F13.0 F high57.3 F24The forecast, at this station
KGCC05 UTC56 F43.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KGCC13 UTC50 F37.0 F13.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KMEH10 UTC45 F32.0 F13.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KNSI00 UTC77 F90.0 F13.0 F low-6Cannot be told
KSXT12 UTC57 F70.0 F13.0 F low-6Cannot be told
KTVL13 UTC50 F37.0 F13.0 F high43.0 F1The forecast, at this station
PABA16 UTC16 F3.0 F13.0 F high-4Cannot be told
PPIZ17 UTC22 F9.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KNFG13 UTC70 F57.0 F13.0 F high71.0 F1The station
KFYV13 UTC66 F53.1 F12.9 F high58.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KTKV03 UTC53 F40.1 F12.9 F high49.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KBCK12 UTC45 F32.2 F12.8 F high43.5 F24The station
KCMY12 UTC46 F33.3 F12.7 F high42.5 F24The forecast, at this station
KBCK08 UTC48 F35.4 F12.6 F high45.5 F20The forecast, at this station
KFWS13 UTC68 F55.4 F12.6 F high63.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KMYJ13 UTC59 F46.4 F12.6 F high51.8 F25The forecast, at this station
KMZJ22 UTC86 F98.6 F12.6 F low99.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ23 UTC86 F98.6 F12.6 F low98.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KCBE07 UTC56 F68.4 F12.4 F low58.5 F25The forecast, at this station
KGVW15 UTC70 F82.4 F12.4 F low83.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KADU07 UTC57 F44.6 F12.4 F high48.2 F19The forecast, at this station
KMXO06 UTC57 F44.6 F12.4 F high50.7 F18The forecast, at this station
KMEZ12 UTC60 F47.7 F12.3 F high51.6 F24The forecast, at this station
KXBP13 UTC67 F54.7 F12.3 F high58.9 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW20 UTC74 F86.2 F12.2 F low84.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KBCK10 UTC46 F33.8 F12.2 F high44.3 F22The station
KEKS15 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high41.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KLCQ19 UTC82 F69.8 F12.2 F high77.0 F7The forecast, at this station
KBTM14 UTC41 F28.9 F12.1 F high34.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KGRN05 UTC56 F43.9 F12.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KHIB12 UTC41 F28.9 F12.1 F high36.9 F24The forecast, at this station
KHIB13 UTC43 F30.9 F12.1 F high37.5 F25The forecast, at this station
KLAW11 UTC68 F55.9 F12.1 F high61.6 F23The forecast, at this station
KMVY01 UTC59 F46.9 F12.1 F high54.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KBOK22 UTC76 F64.0 F12.0 F high57.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KCDR06 UTC58 F46.0 F12.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KCDR09 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KCMY05 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high49.4 F17The forecast, at this station
KCPS08 UTC64 F52.0 F12.0 F high58.2 F20The forecast, at this station
KGCC08 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KHYR13 UTC42 F30.0 F12.0 F high38.2 F25The forecast, at this station
KLAW13 UTC67 F55.0 F12.0 F high60.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KSFO01 UTC75 F63.0 F12.0 F high82.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KSXT09 UTC60 F72.0 F12.0 F low-3Cannot be told
KSXT13 UTC56 F68.0 F12.0 F low-1Cannot be told
KWVI00 UTC82 F70.0 F12.0 F high77.7 F6The forecast, at this station
PABA14 UTC17 F5.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
PABA13 UTC18 F6.1 F11.9 F high-1Cannot be told
KC2414 UTC43 F31.1 F11.9 F high-2Cannot be told
KCMY13 UTC47 F35.1 F11.9 F high44.5 F25The forecast, at this station
KCPS09 UTC63 F51.1 F11.9 F high53.9 F21The forecast, at this station
KFYV10 UTC65 F53.1 F11.9 F high57.5 F22The forecast, at this station
KLPC17 UTC74 F62.1 F11.9 F high65.6 F11The forecast, at this station
KMEH09 UTC45 F33.1 F11.9 F high-3Cannot be told
KTKV02 UTC54 F42.1 F11.9 F high52.7 F2The forecast, at this station
K82V04 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high58.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KBCK09 UTC47 F35.2 F11.8 F high45.7 F21The forecast, at this station
KFXY02 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high56.3 F14The forecast, at this station
KMMU01 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high59.7 F13The station
K1NW19 UTC72 F83.7 F11.7 F low82.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KCMY06 UTC52 F40.3 F11.7 F high46.4 F18The forecast, at this station
KTKV08 UTC45 F33.3 F11.7 F high43.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KTKV10 UTC43 F31.3 F11.7 F high41.0 F4The forecast, at this station
PAAD12 UTC10 F21.7 F11.7 F low-24Cannot be told
KAXX13 UTC38 F26.4 F11.6 F high-1Cannot be told
KBCK11 UTC45 F33.4 F11.6 F high43.4 F23The forecast, at this station
KBCK13 UTC47 F35.4 F11.6 F high45.3 F25The forecast, at this station
KFOT18 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high-6Cannot be told
KFXY03 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high54.3 F15The forecast, at this station
KIGQ03 UTC63 F51.4 F11.6 F high59.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KJSV09 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high57.7 F21The forecast, at this station
KMXO05 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high52.6 F17The forecast, at this station
KMYJ09 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high54.8 F21The forecast, at this station
KTKV11 UTC44 F32.4 F11.6 F high40.6 F23The forecast, at this station
KCZT06 UTC76 F64.4 F11.6 F high70.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KC2413 UTC41 F29.5 F11.5 F high-1Cannot be told
KCFJ08 UTC57 F45.5 F11.5 F high51.3 F20The forecast, at this station
KCMY07 UTC50 F38.5 F11.5 F high47.0 F19The forecast, at this station
KETN04 UTC71 F59.5 F11.5 F high67.3 F16The forecast, at this station
PAAD09 UTC11 F22.5 F11.5 F low-21Cannot be told
PAAD10 UTC11 F22.5 F11.5 F low-22Cannot be told
KGVW01 UTC71 F82.4 F11.4 F low80.7 F1The forecast, at this station
K82V05 UTC58 F46.6 F11.4 F high57.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KADU08 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high46.4 F20The forecast, at this station
KC2415 UTC49 F37.6 F11.4 F high-3Cannot be told
KCFJ11 UTC54 F42.6 F11.4 F high48.0 F23The forecast, at this station
KCHK12 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high60.8 F24The forecast, at this station
KGRN03 UTC60 F48.6 F11.4 F high-3Cannot be told
KJSV11 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high56.9 F23The forecast, at this station
KJSV12 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high55.8 F24The forecast, at this station
KJSV13 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high56.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KLDM07 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high48.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KMXO07 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high49.2 F19The forecast, at this station
KRPJ07 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high53.6 F19The forecast, at this station
KSZT14 UTC47 F35.6 F11.4 F high42.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KTWM08 UTC45 F33.6 F11.4 F high42.5 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW03 UTC52 F63.3 F11.3 F low61.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KCMY03 UTC55 F43.7 F11.3 F high54.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KDZJ15 UTC71 F59.7 F11.3 F high68.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KGRN06 UTC55 F43.7 F11.3 F high-6Cannot be told
KOCQ03 UTC53 F41.7 F11.3 F high57.2 F3The station
KRPJ06 UTC57 F45.7 F11.3 F high55.2 F18The forecast, at this station
KRPJ08 UTC55 F43.7 F11.3 F high48.2 F20The forecast, at this station
KTKV09 UTC44 F32.7 F11.3 F high40.9 F3The forecast, at this station
K1A615 UTC70 F58.8 F11.2 F high68.7 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW21 UTC75 F86.2 F11.2 F low85.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KADU10 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high47.4 F22The forecast, at this station
KEKS03 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high55.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KHHF04 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high65.6 F16The forecast, at this station
KMEZ10 UTC61 F49.8 F11.2 F high53.4 F22The forecast, at this station
KRPJ09 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high49.4 F21The forecast, at this station
KAIA04 UTC60 F48.9 F11.1 F high59.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KBBW05 UTC58 F46.9 F11.1 F high52.0 F17The forecast, at this station
KCMY11 UTC46 F34.9 F11.1 F high42.4 F23The forecast, at this station
KDVN07 UTC58 F46.9 F11.1 F high49.4 F19The forecast, at this station
KFYV07 UTC67 F55.9 F11.1 F high61.1 F19The forecast, at this station
KGCC03 UTC60 F48.9 F11.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KHMZ06 UTC58 F46.9 F11.1 F high59.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KLAW09 UTC69 F57.9 F11.1 F high63.4 F21The forecast, at this station
KLAW12 UTC67 F55.9 F11.1 F high60.8 F24The forecast, at this station
KLVM07 UTC51 F39.9 F11.1 F high43.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KMEZ13 UTC62 F50.9 F11.1 F high51.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KPRG08 UTC57 F45.9 F11.1 F high50.5 F20The forecast, at this station
KS5212 UTC48 F36.9 F11.1 F high-6Cannot be told
KTVL12 UTC49 F37.9 F11.1 F high45.4 F6The forecast, at this station
PFYU22 UTC24 F35.1 F11.1 F low-16Cannot be told
PPIZ15 UTC22 F10.9 F11.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KLPC18 UTC78 F66.9 F11.1 F high67.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KSXT11 UTC58 F69.1 F11.1 F low-5Cannot be told
K22N11 UTC52 F41.0 F11.0 F high51.8 F17The forecast, at this station
K24A15 UTC66 F55.0 F11.0 F high65.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KACV09 UTC57 F46.0 F11.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KACV10 UTC57 F46.0 F11.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KAIA06 UTC57 F46.0 F11.0 F high54.5 F6The forecast, at this station

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 8, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.52.52.72.5+0.548%241,984
Storm Station correction2.12.12.32.42.2+0.570%241,984
National Weather Service forecast1.92.02.12.12.0-0.3-6,947
NOAA GFS2.82.82.93.02.9+0.5-6,483
NOAA HRRR2.52.52.62.62.6-0.6-6,650
NOAA NAM2.93.02.93.02.9+0.2-6,650
ECMWF IFS2.52.52.42.52.5-0.6-2,228
ECMWF AIFS2.22.32.32.42.3-1.0-1,118
Storm Station lead2.02.02.12.32.1-0.459%6,950
NBM, at the 70 airports1.92.02.02.12.0-0.359%6,967
Correction, at the 70 airports1.91.91.92.01.9+0.272%6,967

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.42.42.52.4+0.765%241,571
Storm Station correction2.22.32.32.42.3+0.274%241,571
National Weather Service forecast2.12.22.32.62.3+0.3-6,969
NOAA GFS4.04.04.24.24.1-3.0-6,504
NOAA HRRR2.93.23.53.73.3-2.1-6,672
NOAA NAM3.43.43.53.83.5+2.3-6,672
ECMWF IFS2.52.62.72.92.7+0.8-2,232
ECMWF AIFS2.32.42.52.62.4-0.7-1,118
Storm Station lead2.12.12.22.32.2+0.269%6,972
NBM, at the 70 airports2.12.22.22.32.2+0.268%6,987
Correction, at the 70 airports2.22.22.22.32.20.071%6,987

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.32.32.32.32.3+0.253%242,126
Storm Station correction2.32.32.32.32.3-0.174%242,126
National Weather Service forecast2.42.42.52.62.5+0.3-6,952
NOAA GFS2.72.72.72.82.7+0.0-6,488
NOAA HRRR2.52.62.72.82.6-0.1-6,655
NOAA NAM2.52.52.62.62.6-0.2-6,655
ECMWF IFS3.03.03.03.03.0-0.9-2,232
ECMWF AIFS2.92.93.03.02.9-0.7-1,118
Storm Station lead2.42.42.42.52.4+0.4-6,955
NBM, at the 70 airports2.52.52.42.52.5+0.554%6,970
Correction, at the 70 airports2.32.32.32.32.3-0.076%6,970

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)29.129.729.930.029.7-18.942%55,210
Storm Station correction23.624.124.224.224.0-5.272%55,210
National Weather Service forecast21.421.221.120.821.1-15.1-4,433
NOAA GFS28.028.228.228.428.2-6.6-4,200
NOAA HRRR29.329.030.130.629.8-7.0-4,167
NOAA NAM26.926.226.627.026.7-18.6-4,167
ECMWF IFS24.224.424.625.224.6-12.6-1,400
ECMWF AIFS19.018.818.818.818.9-10.3-714
Storm Station lead22.623.022.821.922.5-18.3-4,434
NBM, at the 70 airports22.623.122.922.422.7-18.542%4,449
Correction, at the 70 airports15.415.715.615.515.6-3.377%4,449

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0120.0120.0130.0130.390.270.10
Storm Station lead0.0160.0160.0160.0180.280.240.07
NBM, at the 70 airports0.0150.0160.0150.0170.310.250.10

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
349
Where snow fell or was forecast
2
Mean miss, depth
2.0 in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in0200.00
3 in0100.00
6 in000-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.