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Live/Forecast engine/October 7, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 7, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 1,302 airfields, was level at 466 and further at 727. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,361 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 7, 2026: closer at 1,210, level at 448, further at 703; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,302 of 2,495 airfields closer than the NBM64 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more722
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F580
  3. level, within 0.1 F466
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F500
  5. further by 0.5 F or more227

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 70, level at 67 and further at 3. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,358 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 7, 2026: closer at 1,033, level at 510, further at 815; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,092 of 2,492 airfields closer than the NBM56 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more521
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F571
  3. level, within 0.1 F533
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F580
  5. further by 0.5 F or more287

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 2 of 70, level at 66 and further at 2. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,366 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 7, 2026: closer at 833, level at 506, further at 1,027; the 70 panel airports ringed

884 of 2,506 airfields closer than the NBM45 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more325
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph559
  3. level, within 0.1 mph531
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph733
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more358

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 17 of 70, level at 46 and further at 7. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,205 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 7, 2026: closer at 738, level at 218, further at 249; the 70 panel airports ringed

800 of 1,298 airfields closer than the NBM75 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more603
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points197
  3. level, within 1 point235
  4. further by 1 to 5 points145
  5. further by 5 points or more118

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 4 of 59, level at 53 and further at 2. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 7, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.2 F on average, and within 5 F in 94 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.3 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
228,732
Readings checked
115,612
Readings that failed
262
Misses over 10 F
659

Who came closest on October 7, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+10.4%Temperature2.0 FDew point2.1 FWind2.5 mphSky cover12.4 points
  2. 2National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database+1.4%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.2 FWind2.5 mphSky cover18.1 points
  3. 3Storm StationThe engine’s own forecast, as every page prints it+0.1%Temperature2.2 FDew point2.0 FWind2.5 mphSky cover19.1 points
  4. 4NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.2 FDew point2.1 FWind2.5 mphSky cover19.2 points
  5. 5ECMWF AIFSArtificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model-2.5%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.2 FWind2.7 mphSky cover17.0 points
  6. 6ECMWF IFSIntegrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model-18.0%Temperature2.6 FDew point2.8 FWind2.8 mphSky cover20.0 points
  7. 7NOAA HRRRHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour-27.9%Temperature2.6 FDew point3.2 FWind2.6 mphSky cover26.8 points
  8. 8NOAA NAMNorth American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48-42.1%Temperature3.1 FDew point4.3 FWind2.6 mphSky cover23.3 points
  9. 9NOAA GFSGlobal Forecast System, NOAA’s global model-42.8%Temperature2.8 FDew point4.2 FWind2.8 mphSky cover24.3 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 7, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports-0.5%-1.9%-1.3%-3.9%-2%+0.9%+1.9%+1.5%+0.9%+1.2%+1.2%+0.8%+0.4%+0.8%+0.9%-1.2%-0.1%+0.1%+2.6%+0.4%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports-0.5%-1.9%+5.8%+10%+3.9%+5.2%-1.5%-11.1%-7.5%-3.9%+1.6%+0.8%-1.6%-1.2%-0.1%+4.2%+6.5%+5%+7.5%+5.9%
NOAA GFSat the 70 airports-34.5%-33.7%-28.3%-27.8%-30.8%-94.8%-107.8%-115.1%-93%-102.3%-9.2%-9.3%-11.8%-15%-11.4%-20.9%-23.6%-29.6%-31.5%-26.7%
NOAA HRRRat the 70 airports-28.2%-24.5%-9.9%-12.2%-16.8%-30.8%-52.4%-67.3%-65.7%-52%-4.4%-4.8%-4.9%-8.3%-6.8%-33.8%-31.3%-44.2%-47.8%-35.8%
NOAA NAMat the 70 airports-50.5%-50.5%-35%-42.6%-42.6%-70.1%-95.6%-129.6%-131.5%-104.1%-2.4%-2.8%-3.7%-2.8%-4%-17.4%-20%-19.6%-26.2%-17.7%
ECMWF IFSat the 70 airports-30.1%-27.4%-12.1%-14.3%-20.3%-19.9%-33.5%-47.7%-45.5%-36.6%-13.3%-11.3%-11.4%-9.4%-11.2%-5.4%0%-6.7%-3.6%-3.8%
ECMWF AIFSat the 70 airports-10.7%-7.7%0%+1.3%-3.8%+1.9%-5.3%-16.1%-13.6%-8.3%-9.6%-11.7%-11.4%-8.7%-10.2%+10.5%+11%+13.3%+12.2%+12%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield+9.6%+10.4%+9.7%+10.1%+9.9%+6.7%+6.4%+5.2%+5.5%+6%-0.4%-1.3%-1.7%-1.7%-1.3%+20.5%+19.9%+19.5%+19.5%+19.8%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 7, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 7, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked115,612 readings, 262 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day2,376,864 forecast hoursEach large miss explained659 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned32,927 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 115,612 readings, 262 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 2,376,864 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 659 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 32,927 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.22 F, the NBM 2.17 FBehind today by 0.04 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.05 F, the NBM 2.07 FAhead today by 0.02 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.47 mph, the NBM 2.50 mphAhead today by 0.02 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 19.14 points, the NBM 19.22 pointsAhead today by 0.08 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it70 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 48On target today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.44 against 0.44, 1 to 6 hours aheadLevel today
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.37 against 0.36 at 0.01 inchAhead today by 0.01
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 7, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 7, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMGFSNBMECMWF IFSHRRRCorrectionStorm StationECMWF AIFSNWS forecast
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 7, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFSECMWF IFSECMWF AIFSHRRRNAMNWS forecastStorm StationCorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 7, 202602461 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMGFSHRRRECMWF IFSECMWF AIFSNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 7, 20260102030401 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNBMHRRRGFSNAMCorrectionECMWF IFSStorm StationNWS forecastECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.3 F warmStorm Station0.3 F coolNWS forecast0.4 F coolGFS1.0 F warmHRRR0.4 F coolNAM0.9 F warmECMWF IFS0.4 F coolECMWF AIFS0.8 F coolCorrection0.4 F warm

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.1 mph strongStorm Station0.2 mph strongNWS forecast0.2 mph strongGFS0.1 mph lightHRRR0.2 mph lightNAM0.3 mph lightECMWF IFS0.7 mph lightECMWF AIFS0.4 mph lightCorrection0.3 mph light

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.7 F moistStorm Station0.3 F moistNWS forecast0.3 F moistGFS3.4 F dryHRRR1.7 F dryNAM3.5 F moistECMWF IFS1.3 F moistECMWF AIFS0.3 F dryCorrection0.3 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM19.9 points clearStorm Station15.5 points clearNWS forecast13.2 points clearGFS8.5 points clearHRRR6.0 points clearNAM14.1 points clearECMWF IFS12.7 points clearECMWF AIFS9.0 points clearCorrection8.5 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
PASY Eareckson Air StationAK0.6 F0.2 F cool51-
KBXA George R Carr Memorial Air FieldLA0.7 Feven91-
PAEH Cape Newenham LRRS AirportAK0.7 F0.5 F cool87-
PAKT Ketchikan International AirportAK0.7 Feven96-
PAFS Nikolai AirportAK0.7 Feven29-
PAJN Juneau International AirportAK0.7 F0.4 F cool96-
KTPF Peter O Knight AirportFL0.7 F0.4 F warm84-
PAKH Akhiok AirportAK0.7 Feven100-
PAVD Valdez Pioneer FieldAK0.7 F0.3 F cool100-
PAWG Wrangell AirportAK0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
KNYC-0.8 F0.1 F cool100-
PAMB-0.8 Feven100-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KFOK Francis S Gabreski AirportNY9.1 F8.3 F warm96the forecast, at this station 11
KWWD Cape May County AirportNJ7.4 F4.7 F warm100-
KMVY Martha's Vineyard AirportMA7.3 F6.8 F warm96the forecast, at this station 7
KTKV Tomahawk Regional AirportWI7.3 F7.3 F warm91-
KRRL Merrill Municipal AirportWI7.1 F7.1 F warm91the forecast, at this station 1
K4V9 Antelope County AirportNE6.9 F6.3 F warm91cannot be told 2
KMFV Accomack County AirportVA6.8 F5.2 F warm84the forecast, at this station 8
PAIM Indian Mountain LRRS AirportAK6.8 F6.8 F cool83-
KOXB Ocean City Municipal AirportMD6.8 F5.3 F warm96the forecast, at this station 3
KLCG Wayne Municipal Airport / Stan Morris FieldNE6.3 F5.8 F warm91the forecast, at this station 5
KGVW-6.2 F6.0 F warm100the forecast, at this station 14
KHWV Brookhaven Calabro AirportNY6.2 F4.8 F warm83-

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station27The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area5Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station483Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told144Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 7, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
K7L201 UTC62 F15.8 F46.2 F high61.3 F1The station
KGVW12 UTC61 F82.4 F21.4 F low73.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC62 F82.4 F20.4 F low74.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW11 UTC62 F82.4 F20.4 F low74.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KO2604 UTC77 F57.2 F19.8 F high-4The station
KGVW07 UTC63 F82.4 F19.4 F low76.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC63 F82.4 F19.4 F low75.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW09 UTC63 F82.4 F19.4 F low74.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC63 F82.4 F19.4 F low73.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKS13 UTC55 F35.6 F19.4 F high34.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC64 F82.4 F18.4 F low78.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC64 F82.4 F18.4 F low78.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KMVY11 UTC49 F30.9 F18.1 F high36.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KEKS09 UTC57 F39.2 F17.8 F high38.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KRDM16 UTC55 F37.4 F17.6 F high52.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW04 UTC65 F82.4 F17.4 F low78.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KO2608 UTC71 F53.6 F17.4 F high-2The station
KEKS11 UTC56 F39.2 F16.8 F high37.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KEKS14 UTC54 F37.4 F16.6 F high33.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW03 UTC66 F82.4 F16.4 F low79.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KO2603 UTC79 F62.6 F16.4 F high-3The station
KFOK09 UTC48 F32.0 F16.0 F high37.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KFOK10 UTC48 F32.0 F16.0 F high36.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KFOK11 UTC48 F32.0 F16.0 F high36.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KMVY10 UTC48 F32.0 F16.0 F high38.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KFOK07 UTC49 F33.1 F15.9 F high40.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KTVL16 UTC60 F44.1 F15.9 F high53.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KO2607 UTC73 F57.2 F15.8 F high-1Cannot be told
KGVW02 UTC67 F82.4 F15.4 F low80.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW14 UTC67 F82.4 F15.4 F low77.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KW9915 UTC66 F50.7 F15.3 F high62.0 F3The station
KEKS07 UTC58 F42.8 F15.2 F high44.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KO2605 UTC76 F60.8 F15.2 F high-5Cannot be told
KMEH15 UTC46 F30.9 F15.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KFOK03 UTC51 F36.0 F15.0 F high42.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KFOK06 UTC49 F34.0 F15.0 F high42.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KPVC11 UTC52 F37.0 F15.0 F high35.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KTVL15 UTC51 F36.0 F15.0 F high43.6 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW01 UTC61 F75.9 F14.9 F low72.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KAIA13 UTC50 F35.1 F14.9 F high-1Cannot be told
KFOK05 UTC50 F35.1 F14.9 F high42.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KFOK08 UTC48 F33.1 F14.9 F high38.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KCWF21 UTC90 F75.2 F14.8 F high91.3 F3The station
K1NW23 UTC67 F81.5 F14.5 F low79.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KAXX14 UTC45 F30.6 F14.4 F high-2Cannot be told
KEKS05 UTC59 F44.6 F14.4 F high47.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KEKS08 UTC57 F42.8 F14.2 F high37.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KEVW13 UTC39 F53.1 F14.1 F low43.2 F1Cannot be told
KEKS12 UTC55 F41.0 F14.0 F high35.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KFOK04 UTC50 F36.0 F14.0 F high42.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KMEH14 UTC42 F28.0 F14.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KMEH16 UTC55 F41.0 F14.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KMFV12 UTC53 F39.0 F14.0 F high47.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KW9914 UTC59 F45.3 F13.7 F high53.9 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW04 UTC53 F66.4 F13.4 F low61.9 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW22 UTC69 F82.4 F13.4 F low79.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW01 UTC69 F82.4 F13.4 F low82.1 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW02 UTC57 F70.2 F13.2 F low67.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KEKS10 UTC56 F42.8 F13.2 F high37.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KACK11 UTC53 F39.9 F13.1 F high35.9 F5The forecast, across the area
KFOK02 UTC51 F37.9 F13.1 F high44.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KFYV14 UTC69 F55.9 F13.1 F high60.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KGRN12 UTC51 F37.9 F13.1 F high-24Cannot be told
KJDN08 UTC51 F37.9 F13.1 F high-2Cannot be told
KMEH13 UTC42 F28.9 F13.1 F high-1Cannot be told
KNFG14 UTC71 F57.9 F13.1 F high71.2 F2The station
KSXT15 UTC56 F69.1 F13.1 F low-3Cannot be told
KAIA11 UTC49 F36.0 F13.0 F high50.2 F5The station
KEKN13 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high46.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKN14 UTC59 F46.0 F13.0 F high51.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KEVW11 UTC41 F54.0 F13.0 F low-5Cannot be told
KHEI09 UTC49 F36.0 F13.0 F high-21Cannot be told
KLAW13 UTC67 F54.0 F13.0 F high59.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KMEH12 UTC43 F30.0 F13.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KOXB04 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high45.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KPVC10 UTC52 F39.0 F13.0 F high36.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KRNM14 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high66.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KVTN13 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high44.1 F25The forecast, at this station
KSXT06 UTC61 F73.9 F12.9 F low-18Cannot be told
PABT15 UTC21 F8.1 F12.9 F high-3Cannot be told
KAIA08 UTC55 F42.1 F12.9 F high55.0 F20The station
KAJO13 UTC73 F60.1 F12.9 F high71.4 F1The station
KAXX10 UTC42 F29.1 F12.9 F high-4Cannot be told
KBTM15 UTC46 F33.1 F12.9 F high41.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KCDR09 UTC55 F42.1 F12.9 F high-21Cannot be told
KFYV13 UTC64 F51.1 F12.9 F high54.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KHEI10 UTC48 F35.1 F12.9 F high-22Cannot be told
KNFG12 UTC73 F60.1 F12.9 F high71.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KOXB03 UTC55 F42.1 F12.9 F high46.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KRRL13 UTC51 F38.1 F12.9 F high46.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KTVL14 UTC48 F35.1 F12.9 F high40.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KMFV06 UTC52 F39.4 F12.6 F high47.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KBCK04 UTC60 F47.5 F12.5 F high57.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KMFV05 UTC53 F40.5 F12.5 F high47.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KLCG11 UTC59 F46.6 F12.4 F high49.4 F23The forecast, at this station
KMFV04 UTC53 F40.6 F12.4 F high48.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KRCV06 UTC50 F62.4 F12.4 F low51.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KSZT14 UTC48 F35.6 F12.4 F high41.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KBCK06 UTC58 F45.7 F12.3 F high55.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KLNL13 UTC49 F36.7 F12.3 F high44.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KMFV08 UTC51 F38.7 F12.3 F high46.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KEKS15 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high38.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KFME13 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high53.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KLFI07 UTC60 F47.8 F12.2 F high46.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KO2602 UTC82 F69.8 F12.2 F high-2Cannot be told
KAXX12 UTC41 F28.8 F12.2 F high-6Cannot be told
KAIA10 UTC50 F37.9 F12.1 F high49.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KBIH05 UTC68 F55.9 F12.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KBTM14 UTC41 F28.9 F12.1 F high34.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KCPS01 UTC68 F55.9 F12.1 F high58.6 F13The forecast, at this station
KFOK12 UTC50 F37.9 F12.1 F high41.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KFYV10 UTC61 F48.9 F12.1 F high53.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KGRN09 UTC54 F41.9 F12.1 F high-21Cannot be told
KGRN11 UTC52 F39.9 F12.1 F high-23Cannot be told
KHON06 UTC59 F46.9 F12.1 F high51.9 F18The forecast, at this station
KLFI06 UTC61 F48.9 F12.1 F high47.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KMFV03 UTC54 F41.9 F12.1 F high49.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KMVY05 UTC50 F37.9 F12.1 F high44.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KMVY07 UTC50 F37.9 F12.1 F high44.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KMVY12 UTC52 F39.9 F12.1 F high42.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KMRY21 UTC79 F66.9 F12.1 F high89.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KMRY22 UTC79 F66.9 F12.1 F high87.3 F4The forecast, at this station
K41U13 UTC49 F37.0 F12.0 F high51.9 F1The station
KAJO07 UTC80 F68.0 F12.0 F high77.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KBHK10 UTC51 F39.0 F12.0 F high-22Cannot be told
KBVO13 UTC64 F52.0 F12.0 F high55.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KCPS03 UTC64 F52.0 F12.0 F high54.4 F15The forecast, at this station
KCPS07 UTC60 F48.0 F12.0 F high51.5 F19The forecast, at this station
KD5704 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high48.6 F16The forecast, at this station
KFYV12 UTC60 F48.0 F12.0 F high52.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KHEI05 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high55.1 F17The station
KHEI13 UTC46 F34.0 F12.0 F high48.0 F1The station
KHYA10 UTC48 F36.0 F12.0 F high35.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KHYA11 UTC48 F36.0 F12.0 F high35.6 F5The forecast, across the area
KLCG13 UTC58 F46.0 F12.0 F high48.7 F25The forecast, at this station
KLFI09 UTC60 F48.0 F12.0 F high48.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KLPC18 UTC82 F70.0 F12.0 F high73.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KMEH09 UTC46 F34.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KMEH11 UTC44 F32.0 F12.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KMRY01 UTC75 F63.0 F12.0 F high81.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KMRY20 UTC80 F68.0 F12.0 F high86.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KMVN07 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high50.6 F19The forecast, at this station
KMVY08 UTC49 F37.0 F12.0 F high40.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KMVY09 UTC48 F36.0 F12.0 F high39.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KNHK05 UTC57 F45.0 F12.0 F high44.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KNSI00 UTC76 F88.0 F12.0 F low-12Cannot be told
KOLF13 UTC46 F34.0 F12.0 F high35.8 F25The forecast, at this station
KSET02 UTC66 F54.0 F12.0 F high57.4 F14The forecast, at this station
KSFO01 UTC80 F68.0 F12.0 F high88.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KSFO02 UTC76 F64.0 F12.0 F high80.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KSFO23 UTC82 F70.0 F12.0 F high91.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KSXT07 UTC61 F73.0 F12.0 F low-19Cannot be told
KSXT08 UTC60 F72.0 F12.0 F low-20Cannot be told
KTVL13 UTC49 F37.0 F12.0 F high44.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KWVI01 UTC75 F63.0 F12.0 F high80.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KWVI02 UTC71 F59.0 F12.0 F high73.7 F2The forecast, at this station
PABT17 UTC19 F7.0 F12.0 F high-5Cannot be told
PAGH13 UTC21 F9.0 F12.0 F high-1Cannot be told
K3U312 UTC43 F31.1 F11.9 F high36.4 F6Cannot be told
KAJO14 UTC72 F60.1 F11.9 F high70.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KBKE10 UTC45 F33.1 F11.9 F high-4Cannot be told
KCDR08 UTC56 F44.1 F11.9 F high-20Cannot be told
KGRN07 UTC56 F44.1 F11.9 F high-19Cannot be told
KHEI01 UTC63 F51.1 F11.9 F high61.7 F13The forecast, at this station
KHIB13 UTC47 F35.1 F11.9 F high46.2 F1The station
KLCG05 UTC63 F51.1 F11.9 F high58.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KLCG07 UTC61 F49.1 F11.9 F high53.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KLVM14 UTC47 F35.1 F11.9 F high42.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KMEH08 UTC47 F35.1 F11.9 F high-2Cannot be told
KMTP11 UTC54 F42.1 F11.9 F high36.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KOXB05 UTC54 F42.1 F11.9 F high45.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KPCD03 UTC61 F49.1 F11.9 F high54.9 F15The forecast, at this station
KSPW13 UTC56 F44.1 F11.9 F high48.8 F25The forecast, at this station
K1NW00 UTC67 F78.8 F11.8 F low80.5 F6The forecast, at this station
K4V910 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high-22Cannot be told
K9Y106 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high38.5 F18The forecast, at this station
KCBE15 UTC64 F52.2 F11.8 F high61.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KD5705 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high45.2 F17The forecast, at this station
KHMZ13 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high48.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KLCG12 UTC58 F46.2 F11.8 F high49.8 F24The forecast, at this station
KMFV07 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high46.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KPCD12 UTC55 F43.2 F11.8 F high52.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KS2506 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high43.4 F18The forecast, at this station
KTWM12 UTC46 F34.2 F11.8 F high45.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KU6814 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high52.2 F2Cannot be told
TJBQ18 UTC87 F75.2 F11.8 F high-6Cannot be told
KMFV02 UTC54 F42.3 F11.7 F high48.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KPCD08 UTC55 F43.3 F11.7 F high51.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KAXX13 UTC41 F29.3 F11.7 F high-1Cannot be told
K1MW05 UTC63 F51.4 F11.6 F high60.0 F5The forecast, at this station
K1NW07 UTC49 F60.6 F11.6 F low55.9 F1The forecast, at this station
K4V913 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high-25Cannot be told
KAGZ10 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high49.4 F22The forecast, at this station
KCBE14 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high54.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KCCA14 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high60.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KD5714 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high42.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KEKS06 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high43.6 F6Cannot be told
KEOP14 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high50.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KMEZ13 UTC60 F48.4 F11.6 F high49.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KMYJ01 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high64.4 F13The forecast, at this station

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 7, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.52.52.72.82.6+0.348%228,732
Storm Station correction2.32.32.42.52.4+0.470%228,732
National Weather Service forecast2.12.12.12.12.1-0.4-6,849
NOAA GFS2.82.82.92.92.8+1.0-6,779
NOAA HRRR2.62.62.52.62.6-0.4-6,575
NOAA NAM3.13.13.03.33.1+0.9-6,575
ECMWF IFS2.72.62.52.62.6-0.4-2,140
ECMWF AIFS2.32.22.22.32.3-0.8-1,028
Storm Station lead2.12.12.32.42.2-0.357%6,871
NBM, at the 70 airports2.12.12.22.32.2-0.356%6,871
Correction, at the 70 airports2.01.92.12.12.0+0.371%6,871

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.32.32.42.3+0.768%228,430
Storm Station correction2.22.22.22.22.2+0.378%228,430
National Weather Service forecast2.02.12.22.32.1+0.3-6,877
NOAA GFS4.14.34.34.14.2-3.4-6,808
NOAA HRRR2.83.13.33.53.2-1.7-6,604
NOAA NAM3.64.04.64.94.3+3.5-6,604
ECMWF IFS2.52.82.93.12.8+1.3-2,144
ECMWF AIFS2.12.22.32.42.2-0.3-1,028
Storm Station lead2.12.02.02.12.0+0.377%6,900
NBM, at the 70 airports2.12.12.02.12.1+0.375%6,900
Correction, at the 70 airports2.12.12.02.12.1+0.277%6,900

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.32.32.32.42.3+0.152%228,621
Storm Station correction2.32.42.42.42.4-0.371%228,621
National Weather Service forecast2.52.52.52.62.5+0.2-6,856
NOAA GFS2.72.72.82.92.8-0.1-6,788
NOAA HRRR2.62.62.62.82.6-0.2-6,582
NOAA NAM2.52.52.52.62.6-0.3-6,582
ECMWF IFS2.82.82.72.82.8-0.7-2,136
ECMWF AIFS2.72.82.72.82.8-0.4-1,024
Storm Station lead2.52.52.52.52.5+0.2-6,878
NBM, at the 70 airports2.52.52.52.52.5+0.353%6,879
Correction, at the 70 airports2.52.52.52.52.5-0.271%6,879

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)29.029.229.029.029.0-19.943%47,750
Storm Station correction23.123.423.323.323.3-8.573%47,750
National Weather Service forecast18.318.218.417.618.1-13.2-3,341
NOAA GFS23.124.125.025.024.4-8.5-3,297
NOAA HRRR25.625.627.928.126.8-6.0-3,053
NOAA NAM22.423.423.124.023.3-14.1-3,053
ECMWF IFS20.119.520.619.720.0-12.7-1,028
ECMWF AIFS17.117.316.816.717.0-9.0-508
Storm Station lead19.319.519.318.519.1-15.5-3,349
NBM, at the 70 airports19.119.519.319.019.2-15.743%3,354
Correction, at the 70 airports11.711.812.313.612.4-0.480%3,354

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0110.0120.0120.0120.330.280.11
Storm Station lead0.0100.0110.0110.0120.440.370.13
NBM, at the 70 airports0.0100.0110.0110.0130.440.360.10

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
338
Where snow fell or was forecast
0
Mean miss, depth
- in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in000-
3 in000-
6 in000-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.