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Live/Forecast engine/October 2, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 2, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 864 airfields, was level at 382 and further at 1,257. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,370 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 2, 2026: closer at 815, level at 361, further at 1,194; the 70 panel airports ringed

864 of 2,503 airfields closer than the NBM41 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more413
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F451
  3. level, within 0.1 F382
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F641
  5. further by 0.5 F or more616

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 23 of 70, level at 11 and further at 36. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,368 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 2, 2026: closer at 871, level at 430, further at 1,067; the 70 panel airports ringed

909 of 2,501 airfields closer than the NBM44 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more403
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F506
  3. level, within 0.1 F457
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F659
  5. further by 0.5 F or more476

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 19 of 70, level at 9 and further at 42. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,370 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 2, 2026: closer at 836, level at 476, further at 1,058; the 70 panel airports ringed

902 of 2,509 airfields closer than the NBM45 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more338
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph564
  3. level, within 0.1 mph494
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph719
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more394

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 42 of 70, level at 9 and further at 19. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,935 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 2, 2026: closer at 518, level at 1,066, further at 351; the 70 panel airports ringed

550 of 2,042 airfields closer than the NBM59 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more236
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points314
  3. level, within 1 point1,112
  4. further by 1 to 5 points241
  5. further by 5 points or more139

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 38 of 67, level at 13 and further at 16. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 2, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.1 F on average, and within 5 F in 92 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.7 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
236,401
Readings checked
115,948
Readings that failed
219
Misses over 10 F
376

Who came closest on October 2, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+2.6%Temperature2.1 FDew point1.9 FWind2.7 mphSky cover17.7 points
  2. 2NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.0 FDew point1.8 FWind2.7 mphSky cover21.2 points
  3. 3Storm StationOn this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it-1.1%Temperature2.2 FDew point2.1 FWind2.4 mphSky cover19.1 points
  4. 4National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-2.8%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.0 FWind2.7 mphSky cover20.6 points
  5. 5NOAA GFS with HRRRNOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast-32.5%Temperature2.6 FDew point3.2 FWind2.8 mphSky cover25.6 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 2, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----7.1%-----17.4%----+10.4%----+9.8%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----5.5%-----8.5%----0%----+2.7%
NOAA GFS with HRRRat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----31.2%-----73.6%-----4.6%-----20.8%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield-6.2%-4.8%-3.8%-2.5%-4.3%-1.9%-1.4%-0.9%+0.5%-0.9%-1.6%-1.6%-1.5%-1.5%-1.6%+4%+3.7%+3.4%+3.6%+3.7%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 2, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 2, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked115,948 readings, 219 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day1,714,844 forecast hoursEach large miss explained376 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned35,887 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 115,948 readings, 219 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 1,714,844 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 376 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 35,887 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.15 F, the NBM 2.01 FBehind today by 0.14 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.14 F, the NBM 1.82 FBehind today by 0.32 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.43 mph, the NBM 2.71 mphAhead today by 0.28 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 19.14 points, the NBM 21.22 pointsAhead today by 2.08 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it68 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 55On target today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.43 against 0.39, 1 to 6 hours aheadAhead today by 0.04
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.23 against 0.28 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.05
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 2, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 2, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRCorrectionNBMStorm StationNWS forecast
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 2, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRNWS forecastCorrectionNBMStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 2, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRStorm StationNBMCorrectionNWS forecast
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 2, 20260102030401 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRNBMCorrectionNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBMevenStorm Station0.7 F coolNWS forecast0.6 F coolGFS with HRRR0.9 F coolCorrectioneven

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.4 mph strongStorm Station0.2 mph lightNWS forecast0.5 mph strongGFS with HRRR0.8 mph lightCorrectioneven

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.1 F moistStorm Station0.6 F dryNWS forecast0.1 F moistGFS with HRRR1.4 F dryCorrection0.1 F dry

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM12.8 points clearStorm Station6.7 points clearNWS forecast14.3 points clearGFS with HRRR0.8 points cloudyCorrection8.5 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
PAMY Mekoryuk AirportAK0.6 F0.1 F warm100-
KISP Long Island MacArthur AirportNY0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
PAAK Atka AirportAK0.7 F0.1 F warm100-
PAWG Wrangell AirportAK0.7 F0.1 F warm100-
KHWV Brookhaven Calabro AirportNY0.7 F0.6 F cool70-
PAJN Juneau International AirportAK0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
PASI Sitka Rocky Gutierrez AirportAK0.8 F0.1 F cool100-
KGHB-0.8 Feven100-
PAUT Akutan AirportAK0.8 F0.3 F cool100-
KBDR Igor I Sikorsky Memorial AirportCT0.8 F0.1 F cool100-
KHVN Tweed New Haven AirportCT0.8 F0.3 F warm100-
PADU Tom Madsen (Dutch Harbor) AirportAK0.8 F0.5 F warm100-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KAVX Catalina AirportCA9.6 F9.6 F cool42the station 10, the forecast, at this station 5
KGVW-9.3 F9.3 F cool79the forecast, at this station 19
KLKV Lake County AirportOR7.9 F7.1 F warm100cannot be told 9
KSEZ Sedona AirportAZ7.4 F7.4 F cool88-
KTMT Austin AirportNV7.0 F6.2 F warm96cannot be told 5
KJDN Jordan AirportMT6.9 F6.2 F cool100-
KMRC Maury County AirportTN6.7 F5.5 F warm16-
KL35 Big Bear City AirportCA6.7 F5.9 F warm79-
KO26 Lone Pine/Death Valley AirportCA6.5 F5.5 F warm67cannot be told 5, the station 4
KLUG Ellington AirportTN6.4 F4.5 F cool96-
KONM Socorro Municipal AirportNM6.4 F6.4 F cool79-
KMMH Mammoth Yosemite AirportCA6.3 F6.3 F warm79cannot be told 2

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station30The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area1Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station261Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told84Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 2, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
KBCT12 UTC80 F32.0 F48.0 F high82.9 F6The station
KRYN16 UTC78 F32.0 F46.0 F high80.1 F4The station
KJES14 UTC81 F44.6 F36.4 F high81.5 F2The station
KGVW14 UTC55 F87.8 F32.8 F low80.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW12 UTC54 F84.2 F30.2 F low74.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC54 F84.2 F30.2 F low75.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW11 UTC55 F84.2 F29.2 F low75.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW15 UTC57 F86.0 F29.0 F low83.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC56 F84.2 F28.2 F low75.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW09 UTC57 F84.2 F27.2 F low76.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC59 F86.0 F27.0 F low81.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC58 F84.2 F26.2 F low78.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC60 F86.0 F26.0 F low81.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW16 UTC60 F86.0 F26.0 F low85.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW07 UTC59 F84.2 F25.2 F low79.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KJES13 UTC77 F51.8 F25.2 F high76.8 F1The station
KGVW17 UTC63 F87.8 F24.8 F low87.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW04 UTC62 F86.0 F24.0 F low82.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW03 UTC63 F86.0 F23.0 F low83.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW02 UTC64 F86.0 F22.0 F low83.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KO2609 UTC72 F50.0 F22.0 F high-3The station
KGVW23 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low83.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KO2608 UTC73 F51.8 F21.2 F high-2The station
KGVW01 UTC65 F86.0 F21.0 F low84.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KO2610 UTC70 F50.0 F20.0 F high-4The station
KO2606 UTC77 F57.2 F19.8 F high-6Cannot be told
KO2607 UTC75 F55.4 F19.6 F high-1Cannot be told
KO2604 UTC79 F60.8 F18.2 F high-4Cannot be told
KAVX17 UTC75 F93.0 F18.0 F low77.0 F5The station
KGVW00 UTC68 F86.0 F18.0 F low85.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KO2602 UTC84 F66.2 F17.8 F high-2The station
KMMH11 UTC51 F33.8 F17.2 F high-5Cannot be told
KAVX14 UTC66 F82.9 F16.9 F low61.4 F2The station
KAVX15 UTC68 F84.0 F16.0 F low63.3 F3The station
KTVL13 UTC53 F37.0 F16.0 F high44.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KTVL15 UTC55 F39.0 F16.0 F high43.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KAVX18 UTC78 F93.9 F15.9 F low84.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KO2605 UTC78 F62.6 F15.4 F high-5Cannot be told
KO2611 UTC69 F53.6 F15.4 F high-5Cannot be told
KTVL11 UTC53 F37.9 F15.1 F high46.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KTSP08 UTC65 F50.0 F15.0 F high61.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KBAN15 UTC52 F37.0 F15.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KMZJ19 UTC73 F87.8 F14.8 F low87.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KMZJ21 UTC75 F89.6 F14.6 F low89.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KMZJ22 UTC75 F89.6 F14.6 F low90.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KTMT08 UTC49 F34.5 F14.5 F high-2Cannot be told
KNFG14 UTC70 F55.9 F14.1 F high65.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KTVL10 UTC54 F39.9 F14.1 F high49.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KTVL12 UTC52 F37.9 F14.1 F high44.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KAVX16 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low69.8 F4The station
KLKV08 UTC53 F39.0 F14.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KNFG16 UTC82 F68.0 F14.0 F high79.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KTVL14 UTC51 F37.0 F14.0 F high43.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KAJO13 UTC71 F57.0 F14.0 F high65.5 F1The forecast, at this station
K1MM11 UTC48 F61.9 F13.9 F low43.3 F5The station
KMZJ20 UTC74 F87.8 F13.8 F low88.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KMZJ23 UTC76 F89.6 F13.6 F low89.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KC2417 UTC60 F46.6 F13.4 F high-5Cannot be told
KFCS17 UTC63 F49.6 F13.4 F high57.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KEKS08 UTC56 F42.8 F13.2 F high45.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KNFG12 UTC69 F55.9 F13.1 F high67.2 F6The station
KAJO14 UTC71 F57.9 F13.1 F high65.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KAVX12 UTC66 F79.0 F13.0 F low62.3 F6The station
KAVX13 UTC66 F79.0 F13.0 F low61.6 F1The station
KLKV13 UTC47 F34.0 F13.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KLOL10 UTC59 F46.0 F13.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KMBG02 UTC56 F43.0 F13.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KMZJ18 UTC73 F86.0 F13.0 F low86.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KSFO21 UTC81 F68.0 F13.0 F high81.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KTRM13 UTC77 F64.0 F13.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KTTF11 UTC55 F68.0 F13.0 F low54.1 F5The station
KBAN12 UTC50 F37.0 F13.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KBAN13 UTC49 F36.0 F13.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KBAN17 UTC70 F57.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KLKV12 UTC48 F35.1 F12.9 F high-6Cannot be told
KNFG15 UTC75 F62.1 F12.9 F high71.2 F3The forecast, at this station
PFSH17 UTC30 F17.1 F12.9 F high21.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KL0810 UTC79 F66.2 F12.8 F high66.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ16 UTC66 F78.8 F12.8 F low82.3 F10The forecast, at this station
KC2418 UTC66 F53.4 F12.6 F high-6Cannot be told
KDED17 UTC87 F74.5 F12.5 F high83.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KDED18 UTC87 F74.5 F12.5 F high81.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KTMT11 UTC44 F31.5 F12.5 F high-5Cannot be told
K41U14 UTC52 F39.6 F12.4 F high50.4 F2The station
K1NW00 UTC55 F67.3 F12.3 F low64.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KD5704 UTC46 F33.8 F12.2 F high43.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KGOO13 UTC63 F75.2 F12.2 F low-1Cannot be told
KPAO22 UTC82 F69.8 F12.2 F high82.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KTSP09 UTC64 F51.8 F12.2 F high58.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KTSP10 UTC64 F51.8 F12.2 F high58.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KC2416 UTC54 F41.9 F12.1 F high-4Cannot be told
KCOS17 UTC61 F48.9 F12.1 F high56.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KLKV09 UTC52 F39.9 F12.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KLKV10 UTC50 F37.9 F12.1 F high-4Cannot be told
KLKV15 UTC50 F37.9 F12.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KRNM14 UTC70 F57.9 F12.1 F high61.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KTMT09 UTC47 F34.9 F12.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KAJO12 UTC70 F57.9 F12.1 F high66.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KBYS07 UTC77 F64.9 F12.1 F high-1Cannot be told
KTUP22 UTC86 F73.9 F12.1 F high76.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KAVX10 UTC67 F79.0 F12.0 F low62.6 F4The station
KAVX11 UTC67 F79.0 F12.0 F low62.3 F5The station
KAVX19 UTC81 F93.0 F12.0 F low91.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KAVX21 UTC83 F95.0 F12.0 F low97.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KBYS09 UTC75 F63.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KBYS15 UTC75 F63.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KD5705 UTC44 F32.0 F12.0 F high41.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KL0809 UTC80 F68.0 F12.0 F high68.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KLKV07 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KLKV14 UTC46 F34.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KNFG11 UTC69 F57.0 F12.0 F high67.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KSFO20 UTC78 F66.0 F12.0 F high79.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KTRM05 UTC85 F73.0 F12.0 F high80.0 F17The forecast, at this station
KTVL09 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high50.2 F3The forecast, at this station
PADM17 UTC28 F16.0 F12.0 F high25.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KAVX20 UTC82 F93.9 F11.9 F low96.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KAVX22 UTC82 F93.9 F11.9 F low97.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KBIH07 UTC65 F53.1 F11.9 F high-1Cannot be told
KEKN11 UTC63 F51.1 F11.9 F high60.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KLOL07 UTC63 F51.1 F11.9 F high-1Cannot be told
KHZE06 UTC42 F30.2 F11.8 F high38.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KTMT14 UTC42 F30.2 F11.8 F high-2Cannot be told
K4F200 UTC85 F73.2 F11.8 F high75.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KC2415 UTC49 F37.2 F11.8 F high-3Cannot be told
KCOM21 UTC74 F85.8 F11.8 F low79.7 F21The forecast, at this station
KJES17 UTC87 F75.2 F11.8 F high86.7 F5The station
KL0805 UTC87 F75.2 F11.8 F high70.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KHCR18 UTC73 F61.3 F11.7 F high69.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KBAM13 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high-1Cannot be told
KHZE08 UTC40 F28.4 F11.6 F high37.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KO6902 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high65.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KUOX21 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high75.2 F21The forecast, at this station
KO2217 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high78.8 F5The forecast, at this station
K41U15 UTC57 F45.5 F11.5 F high54.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KTWM07 UTC43 F31.5 F11.5 F high40.4 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW21 UTC71 F82.4 F11.4 F low79.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KGZN22 UTC71 F82.4 F11.4 F low79.1 F22The forecast, at this station
KLCQ21 UTC83 F71.6 F11.4 F high76.8 F9The forecast, at this station
KMZJ17 UTC71 F82.4 F11.4 F low84.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KSLI20 UTC91 F102.4 F11.4 F low101.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KPAO19 UTC74 F62.6 F11.4 F high73.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KTMT13 UTC42 F30.6 F11.4 F high-1Cannot be told
KTSP07 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high62.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KTWM08 UTC43 F31.6 F11.4 F high39.9 F2The forecast, at this station
K41U13 UTC50 F38.7 F11.3 F high48.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KHCR17 UTC66 F54.7 F11.3 F high66.4 F5The station
K1NW22 UTC71 F82.2 F11.2 F low80.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KBYS12 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high-6Cannot be told
KHZE04 UTC45 F33.8 F11.2 F high43.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KMMH16 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high-4Cannot be told
KTSP11 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high55.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KAAT11 UTC51 F39.9 F11.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KAAT15 UTC51 F39.9 F11.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KLGU09 UTC51 F39.9 F11.1 F high52.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KLKV11 UTC49 F37.9 F11.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KLOL09 UTC60 F48.9 F11.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KNID14 UTC67 F55.9 F11.1 F high-2Cannot be told
KRNM13 UTC69 F57.9 F11.1 F high61.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KBAN11 UTC51 F39.9 F11.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KAVX07 UTC67 F78.1 F11.1 F low65.0 F1The station
KAVX08 UTC67 F78.1 F11.1 F low64.1 F2The station
KCOM22 UTC74 F85.1 F11.1 F low79.0 F22The forecast, at this station
KCRG18 UTC85 F73.9 F11.1 F high76.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KHMP21 UTC85 F73.9 F11.1 F high84.9 F3The station
KMQY20 UTC85 F73.9 F11.1 F high79.1 F20The forecast, at this station
KNSI23 UTC76 F87.1 F11.1 F low-5Cannot be told
KTRM11 UTC78 F66.9 F11.1 F high69.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KAAT08 UTC56 F45.0 F11.0 F high-20Cannot be told
KALI01 UTC83 F72.0 F11.0 F high78.6 F13The forecast, at this station
KAUG19 UTC74 F63.0 F11.0 F high69.0 F13The forecast, at this station
KAVQ12 UTC66 F77.0 F11.0 F low71.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KBGR19 UTC74 F63.0 F11.0 F high63.7 F19The forecast, at this station
KBIH06 UTC68 F57.0 F11.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KBIH08 UTC63 F52.0 F11.0 F high-20Cannot be told
KBOK00 UTC75 F64.0 F11.0 F high64.8 F24The forecast, at this station
KCEC01 UTC65 F54.0 F11.0 F high63.4 F25The forecast, at this station
KCVH20 UTC88 F77.0 F11.0 F high74.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KEBS23 UTC57 F68.0 F11.0 F low65.4 F17The forecast, at this station
KEKN08 UTC63 F52.0 F11.0 F high60.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KEKN09 UTC63 F52.0 F11.0 F high58.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KEKN10 UTC63 F52.0 F11.0 F high59.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KEKN13 UTC68 F57.0 F11.0 F high66.1 F25The forecast, at this station
KEKO09 UTC54 F43.0 F11.0 F high-21Cannot be told
KEKO13 UTC47 F36.0 F11.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KFOT17 UTC61 F50.0 F11.0 F high-23Cannot be told
KGGG00 UTC84 F73.0 F11.0 F high73.6 F24The forecast, at this station
KGZH21 UTC80 F91.0 F11.0 F low80.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KHMZ10 UTC66 F55.0 F11.0 F high66.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KHRL20 UTC90 F79.0 F11.0 F high89.7 F8The station
KLEW20 UTC74 F63.0 F11.0 F high65.3 F14The forecast, at this station
KLOL05 UTC68 F57.0 F11.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KLOL08 UTC61 F50.0 F11.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KLOL14 UTC54 F43.0 F11.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KLPC17 UTC70 F59.0 F11.0 F high62.5 F17The forecast, at this station
KMZJ00 UTC75 F86.0 F11.0 F low88.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KNFG10 UTC70 F59.0 F11.0 F high68.2 F22The forecast, at this station
KPWM16 UTC71 F82.0 F11.0 F low80.0 F22The forecast, at this station
KRFI00 UTC84 F73.0 F11.0 F high72.7 F24The forecast, at this station
KRIF13 UTC52 F41.0 F11.0 F high44.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KRVJ20 UTC86 F75.0 F11.0 F high82.5 F14The forecast, at this station

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 2, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.32.32.42.42.3+0.055%236,401
Storm Station correction2.42.42.52.52.4-0.068%236,401
National Weather Service forecast2.12.12.12.22.1-0.6-6,978
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.32.52.63.02.6-0.9-6,978
Storm Station lead2.02.12.12.42.1-0.7-6,978

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.12.12.12.22.1+0.166%235,533
Storm Station correction2.12.22.22.22.2-0.172%235,533
National Weather Service forecast1.91.92.02.12.0+0.1-6,995
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.63.13.43.53.2-1.4-6,995
Storm Station lead1.82.12.32.32.1-0.6-6,995

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.52.62.62.62.6+0.452%235,761
Storm Station correction2.62.62.62.62.6+0.070%235,761
National Weather Service forecast2.62.72.72.82.7+0.5-6,966
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.82.82.92.92.8-0.8-6,974
Storm Station lead2.42.42.42.52.4-0.2-6,974

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)23.724.124.124.224.1-12.852%109,733
Storm Station correction22.823.323.323.323.2-8.560%109,733
National Weather Service forecast19.920.320.421.920.6-14.3-5,717
NOAA GFS with HRRR26.325.825.125.425.6+0.8-5,719
Storm Station lead20.219.418.318.719.1-6.7-5,719

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0420.0460.0500.0520.390.280.13
NOAA GFS with HRRR0.0460.0530.0580.0600.430.310.13
Storm Station lead0.0460.0530.0580.0600.430.230.13

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
384
Where snow fell or was forecast
0
Mean miss, depth
- in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in000-
3 in000-
6 in000-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.