Storm Station
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Live/Forecast engine/September 28, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

September 28, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 0 airfields, was level at 2,499 and further at 0. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,366 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on September 28, 2026: closer at 0, level at 2,366, further at 0; the 70 panel airports ringed

0 of 2,499 airfields closer than the NBM

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more0
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F0
  3. level, within 0.1 F2,499
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F0
  5. further by 0.5 F or more0

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 0, level at 0 and further at 0. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,364 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on September 28, 2026: closer at 0, level at 2,364, further at 0; the 70 panel airports ringed

0 of 2,496 airfields closer than the NBM

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more0
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F0
  3. level, within 0.1 F2,496
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F0
  5. further by 0.5 F or more0

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 0, level at 0 and further at 0. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,364 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on September 28, 2026: closer at 0, level at 2,364, further at 0; the 70 panel airports ringed

0 of 2,503 airfields closer than the NBM

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more0
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph0
  3. level, within 0.1 mph2,503
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph0
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more0

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 0, level at 0 and further at 0. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on September 28, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.4 F on average, and within 5 F in 91 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.1 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
241,567
Readings checked
117,998
Readings that failed
171
Misses over 10 F
421

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, September 28, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Station correctionat every airfield0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-----
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are September 28, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of September 28, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked117,998 readings, 171 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day1,445,236 forecast hoursEach large miss explained421 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned29,674 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 117,998 readings, 171 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 1,445,236 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 421 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 29,674 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 0.00 F, the NBM 0.00 FLevel today
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 0.00 F, the NBM 0.00 FLevel today
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 0.00 mph, the NBM 0.00 mphLevel today
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 0.00 points, the NBM 0.00 pointsLevel today
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it53 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 53Too narrow today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill - against -, 1 to 6 hours aheadNot yet scored
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM- against - at 0.01 inchNot yet scored
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

September 28, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, September 28, 202601231 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, September 28, 202601231 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, September 28, 202601231 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.1 F coolCorrection0.1 F cool

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.2 mph strongCorrection0.2 mph strong

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.6 F moistCorrection0.6 F moist

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
PGSN-0.5 Feven100-
PAPO Point Hope AirportAK0.5 F0.1 F cool95-
PAAK Atka AirportAK0.5 F0.1 F cool100-
PAEH Cape Newenham LRRS AirportAK0.6 F0.2 F warm100-
PPIT Nunapitchuk AirportAK0.6 F0.6 F cool16-
PAKI Kipnuk AirportAK0.6 F0.1 F cool100-
PHNL Daniel K. Inouye International AirportHI0.6 F0.3 F cool100-
PAGM Gambell AirportAK0.7 F0.6 F warm75-
KORD Chicago O'Hare International AirportIL0.7 F0.3 F cool100-
PAOU Nelson Lagoon AirportAK0.7 F0.4 F warm100-
KDVP Slayton Municipal AirportMN0.7 F0.4 F cool100-
KNQX Naval Air Station Key West/Boca Chica FieldFL0.7 F0.1 F warm100-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KGVW-18.0 F18.0 F cool96the forecast, at this station 23
KOAR Marina Municipal AirportCA14.7 F14.7 F warm29the station 15, the forecast, at this station 7
K1NW-8.6 F8.6 F cool100the forecast, at this station 8
KU55 Panguitch Municipal AirportUT6.8 F6.5 F cool100-
KDPG Michael AAF (Dugway Proving Ground) AirportUT6.5 F4.1 F warm42cannot be told 2
KRIF Richfield Municipal AirportUT6.5 F6.1 F cool100the forecast, at this station 3
KBIH Eastern Sierra Regional AirportCA6.3 F6.2 F cool100cannot be told 4
KEFT Monroe Municipal AirportWI6.3 F6.3 F cool100-
KEKS Ennis Big Sky AirportMT6.3 F2.4 F warm100the forecast, at this station 4
KELY Ely Airport Yelland FieldNV6.1 F3.0 F cool100cannot be told 2
KMVN Mount Vernon Outland AirportIL6.1 F3.6 F warm100the forecast, at this station 1
KHYW Conway Horry County AirportSC6.0 F5.5 F warm100the forecast, at this station 3

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station25The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area1Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station321Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told74Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of September 28, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
KFDK14 UTC64 F32.0 F32.0 F high63.9 F2The station
KGVW09 UTC62 F84.2 F22.2 F low78.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC62 F84.2 F22.2 F low76.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW11 UTC62 F84.2 F22.2 F low78.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW12 UTC62 F84.2 F22.2 F low77.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KS2405 UTC56 F33.8 F22.2 F high55.1 F5The station
KGVW15 UTC66 F87.8 F21.8 F low84.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low79.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW07 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low79.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low78.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC63 F84.2 F21.2 F low78.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW04 UTC64 F84.2 F20.2 F low81.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC64 F84.2 F20.2 F low80.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW03 UTC65 F84.2 F19.2 F low81.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW02 UTC66 F84.2 F18.2 F low82.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KBAN12 UTC30 F48.0 F18.0 F low-6Cannot be told
KOAR05 UTC57 F39.2 F17.8 F high57.7 F5The station
KOAR08 UTC55 F37.4 F17.6 F high55.1 F2The station
KOAR09 UTC55 F37.4 F17.6 F high54.1 F3The station
KOAR21 UTC62 F44.6 F17.4 F high71.3 F3The station
KGVW16 UTC69 F86.0 F17.0 F low87.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KOAR17 UTC58 F41.0 F17.0 F high59.5 F5The station
KOAR06 UTC56 F39.2 F16.8 F high57.6 F6The station
K1NW00 UTC63 F79.3 F16.3 F low79.4 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW05 UTC54 F70.2 F16.2 F low65.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW01 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low83.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KBAN13 UTC29 F45.0 F16.0 F low-1Cannot be told
KOAR02 UTC57 F41.0 F16.0 F high60.8 F2The station
KOAR03 UTC57 F41.0 F16.0 F high59.9 F3The station
KOAR04 UTC57 F41.0 F16.0 F high58.7 F4The station
KOAR10 UTC55 F39.2 F15.8 F high53.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KOAR15 UTC55 F39.2 F15.8 F high53.3 F3The station
KOAR20 UTC62 F46.4 F15.6 F high67.7 F2The station
KOAR22 UTC62 F46.4 F15.6 F high71.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KOAR19 UTC60 F44.6 F15.4 F high65.7 F1The station
KGVW00 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low84.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KOAR01 UTC58 F42.8 F15.2 F high64.0 F1The station
K1NW02 UTC57 F72.0 F15.0 F low69.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW17 UTC71 F86.0 F15.0 F low88.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KOAR07 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high55.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KOAR16 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high57.4 F4The station
K1A615 UTC69 F54.1 F14.9 F high65.4 F3The station
K1NW04 UTC55 F69.8 F14.8 F low65.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KOAR12 UTC54 F39.2 F14.8 F high54.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KOAR13 UTC54 F39.2 F14.8 F high54.1 F1The station
KLSB19 UTC79 F64.4 F14.6 F high-1Cannot be told
K1NW01 UTC60 F74.3 F14.3 F low72.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KAKO21 UTC77 F63.0 F14.0 F high70.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW23 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low87.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KOAR11 UTC55 F41.0 F14.0 F high52.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KSEZ03 UTC73 F59.0 F14.0 F high62.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KBMQ00 UTC85 F71.1 F13.9 F high83.4 F6The forecast, at this station
K1A614 UTC64 F50.2 F13.8 F high57.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KOAR14 UTC53 F39.2 F13.8 F high51.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KOAR23 UTC62 F48.2 F13.8 F high69.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KDPG20 UTC68 F54.3 F13.7 F high60.3 F2Cannot be told
KO2620 UTC67 F80.6 F13.6 F low-2Cannot be told
K1NW03 UTC55 F68.5 F13.5 F low68.0 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW06 UTC54 F67.5 F13.5 F low65.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KL3514 UTC41 F54.5 F13.5 F low-2Cannot be told
KBAM14 UTC42 F55.4 F13.4 F low-2Cannot be told
KEKS02 UTC56 F42.8 F13.2 F high49.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KL3513 UTC41 F54.1 F13.1 F low-1Cannot be told
KTCS21 UTC78 F64.9 F13.1 F high-3Cannot be told
K1U719 UTC63 F50.0 F13.0 F high54.4 F19The forecast, at this station
KF4618 UTC90 F77.0 F13.0 F high89.2 F6The station
KGGE01 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high64.7 F13The forecast, at this station
KGVW18 UTC73 F86.0 F13.0 F low89.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW19 UTC73 F86.0 F13.0 F low90.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW22 UTC73 F86.0 F13.0 F low88.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KTCS22 UTC77 F64.0 F13.0 F high-4Cannot be told
PAEG08 UTC32 F45.0 F13.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KCDC20 UTC61 F73.9 F12.9 F low70.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KLRU19 UTC80 F67.1 F12.9 F high81.2 F1The station
KI3515 UTC67 F54.1 F12.9 F high62.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KLND22 UTC66 F53.1 F12.9 F high55.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KPSC14 UTC46 F33.1 F12.9 F high43.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KFMM21 UTC79 F66.2 F12.8 F high71.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KGGE02 UTC70 F57.2 F12.8 F high63.3 F14The forecast, at this station
KHYW01 UTC70 F57.2 F12.8 F high61.6 F13The forecast, at this station
KGGE04 UTC68 F55.4 F12.6 F high60.5 F16The forecast, at this station
K1GW22 UTC77 F64.6 F12.4 F high71.4 F4The forecast, at this station
K2V623 UTC75 F62.6 F12.4 F high69.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KCXP13 UTC43 F55.4 F12.4 F low47.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KCXP14 UTC43 F55.4 F12.4 F low47.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KLRU20 UTC81 F68.7 F12.3 F high78.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KF4619 UTC91 F78.8 F12.2 F high89.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KI3514 UTC62 F49.8 F12.2 F high55.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KLNN12 UTC62 F49.8 F12.2 F high54.3 F24The forecast, at this station
KMMH11 UTC36 F48.2 F12.2 F low-5Cannot be told
KMRF22 UTC82 F69.8 F12.2 F high-4Cannot be told
KMEH15 UTC41 F28.9 F12.1 F high35.6 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW07 UTC53 F65.1 F12.1 F low63.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KE3521 UTC86 F73.9 F12.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KPUB22 UTC77 F64.9 F12.1 F high66.8 F4The forecast, at this station
K1U718 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high52.6 F18The forecast, at this station
KAKO22 UTC76 F64.0 F12.0 F high68.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KBAN14 UTC29 F41.0 F12.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KBIH10 UTC49 F61.0 F12.0 F low-4Cannot be told
KCDC21 UTC61 F73.0 F12.0 F low67.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KDEN20 UTC75 F63.0 F12.0 F high68.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KDEW06 UTC44 F32.0 F12.0 F high42.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KEKS05 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high43.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW20 UTC74 F86.0 F12.0 F low89.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW21 UTC74 F86.0 F12.0 F low89.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KLBT02 UTC69 F57.0 F12.0 F high61.1 F14The forecast, at this station
KLBT03 UTC67 F55.0 F12.0 F high60.1 F15The forecast, at this station
KLHQ12 UTC57 F45.0 F12.0 F high52.1 F24The forecast, at this station
KLND21 UTC66 F54.0 F12.0 F high55.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KMVN04 UTC60 F48.0 F12.0 F high54.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KO2619 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low-1Cannot be told
KSTK21 UTC80 F68.0 F12.0 F high73.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KVTA10 UTC57 F45.0 F12.0 F high50.5 F22The forecast, at this station
KBIH08 UTC53 F64.9 F11.9 F low-2Cannot be told
KLGU10 UTC55 F66.9 F11.9 F low63.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KLMO00 UTC77 F65.1 F11.9 F high78.3 F6The station
KAGS01 UTC72 F60.1 F11.9 F high65.4 F13The forecast, at this station
KBKF20 UTC74 F62.1 F11.9 F high67.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KHCR21 UTC65 F53.1 F11.9 F high58.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KCKI01 UTC69 F57.2 F11.8 F high62.7 F13The forecast, at this station
KDZB00 UTC87 F75.2 F11.8 F high84.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KGGE03 UTC69 F57.2 F11.8 F high61.8 F15The forecast, at this station
KMMH14 UTC31 F42.8 F11.8 F low-2Cannot be told
KSJX03 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high52.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KVUJ09 UTC61 F49.3 F11.7 F high51.8 F21The forecast, at this station
K0S908 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high47.9 F2The forecast, at this station
K0S909 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high47.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KCKI02 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high60.9 F14The forecast, at this station
KGGE05 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high59.6 F17The forecast, at this station
KI7403 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high53.2 F15The forecast, at this station
KMMH13 UTC33 F44.6 F11.6 F low-1Cannot be told
KSJX05 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high48.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KSJX06 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high50.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KMZJ01 UTC78 F89.6 F11.6 F low90.4 F25The forecast, at this station
KP5202 UTC76 F64.4 F11.6 F high66.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KPXE00 UTC76 F64.4 F11.6 F high71.6 F12The forecast, at this station
KRIF17 UTC60 F71.6 F11.6 F low64.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KRIF18 UTC60 F71.6 F11.6 F low67.3 F12The forecast, at this station
KTKI17 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high86.8 F5The station
KXMR03 UTC76 F64.4 F11.6 F high71.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KXMR04 UTC76 F64.4 F11.6 F high71.1 F4The forecast, at this station
K1A616 UTC73 F61.5 F11.5 F high69.7 F4The forecast, at this station
K24A15 UTC66 F54.5 F11.5 F high63.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KAFP05 UTC64 F52.5 F11.5 F high58.4 F17The forecast, at this station
KDPG23 UTC70 F58.5 F11.5 F high57.8 F23Cannot be told
KE3823 UTC85 F73.6 F11.4 F high-5Cannot be told
KRIF19 UTC62 F73.4 F11.4 F low68.4 F13The forecast, at this station
KAFP04 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high59.7 F16The forecast, at this station
KEOP10 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high43.7 F22The forecast, at this station
KEOP11 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high42.9 F23The forecast, at this station
KHYW02 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high60.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KHYW03 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high57.7 F15The forecast, at this station
KI7406 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high52.7 F18The forecast, at this station
KLNN10 UTC61 F49.6 F11.4 F high55.0 F22The forecast, at this station
KMMH07 UTC44 F55.4 F11.4 F low-1Cannot be told
KRZT12 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high50.7 F24The forecast, at this station
KSEZ02 UTC74 F62.6 F11.4 F high61.3 F2The forecast, at this station
K1IW22 UTC75 F63.7 F11.3 F high71.6 F4The forecast, at this station
K1A515 UTC65 F53.8 F11.2 F high64.6 F3The station
KA3922 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high71.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KCHD21 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high71.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KCHT20 UTC73 F84.2 F11.2 F low76.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KCHT21 UTC73 F84.2 F11.2 F low77.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KCKI00 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high68.0 F12The forecast, at this station
KCXU02 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high66.0 F14The forecast, at this station
KEKS04 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high44.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KHVS00 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high67.1 F12The forecast, at this station
KI7408 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high49.8 F20The forecast, at this station
KI7409 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high49.7 F21The forecast, at this station
KI7410 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high49.5 F22The forecast, at this station
KI7411 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high48.7 F23The forecast, at this station
KI7412 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high48.7 F24The forecast, at this station
KL3515 UTC44 F55.2 F11.2 F low-3Cannot be told
KMMH10 UTC37 F48.2 F11.2 F low-4Cannot be told
KPXE01 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high66.8 F13The forecast, at this station
KW4321 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high67.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KBIH14 UTC42 F53.1 F11.1 F low-2Cannot be told
KCAE04 UTC67 F55.9 F11.1 F high58.9 F16The forecast, at this station
KCWN22 UTC67 F55.9 F11.1 F high58.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KLBT10 UTC58 F46.9 F11.1 F high53.0 F22The forecast, at this station
KLPR09 UTC60 F48.9 F11.1 F high55.0 F21The forecast, at this station
KRIW22 UTC67 F55.9 F11.1 F high56.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KVTA05 UTC58 F46.9 F11.1 F high54.0 F17The forecast, at this station
KCDC18 UTC60 F71.1 F11.1 F low67.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KSNY22 UTC76 F64.9 F11.1 F high71.7 F4The forecast, at this station
K1A514 UTC59 F48.0 F11.0 F high59.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KAEG17 UTC70 F59.0 F11.0 F high65.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KAGS04 UTC66 F55.0 F11.0 F high59.1 F16The forecast, at this station
KBIH09 UTC50 F61.0 F11.0 F low-9Cannot be told
KBKE06 UTC48 F37.0 F11.0 F high43.9 F6Cannot be told
KBKE08 UTC45 F34.0 F11.0 F high40.9 F14The forecast, at this station
KCDC19 UTC61 F72.0 F11.0 F low70.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KCEZ11 UTC53 F64.0 F11.0 F low59.3 F11The forecast, at this station
KCFS12 UTC52 F41.0 F11.0 F high48.9 F18The forecast, at this station
KCWV02 UTC70 F59.0 F11.0 F high64.4 F14The forecast, at this station
KCXP10 UTC48 F59.0 F11.0 F low52.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KDEW11 UTC38 F27.0 F11.0 F high36.7 F11The forecast, at this station
KEKS06 UTC52 F41.0 F11.0 F high42.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KELY12 UTC43 F54.0 F11.0 F low-18Cannot be told
KELY13 UTC43 F54.0 F11.0 F low-1Cannot be told

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, September 28, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.32.32.42.42.4-0.153%241,567
Storm Station correction2.32.32.42.42.4-0.153%241,567

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.42.42.52.4+0.665%240,668
Storm Station correction2.42.42.42.52.4+0.665%240,668

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.42.42.52.4+0.253%240,383
Storm Station correction2.42.42.42.52.4+0.253%240,383

Snow

-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.