Live/Forecast engine
Forecast engine
Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.
Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM
October 14, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 910 airfields, was level at 531 and further at 1,058. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.
910 of 2,499 airfields closer than the NBM46 in 100 of those not level
- closer by 0.5 F or more346
- closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F564
- level, within 0.1 F531
- further by 0.1 to 0.5 F620
- further by 0.5 F or more438
At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 70, level at 64 and further at 6. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.
1,920 fire weather stations scoredStorm Station’s temperature forecast off by 3.2 F on average
- within 2 F451
- 2 to 4 F1,033
- 4 F or more436
Closest
- Selawik FlatsAK0.5 F
- Devil Mountain RAWSAK0.5 F
- Serpentine RAWSAK0.6 F
- Tag MountainAK0.6 F
- Nulato - Shaktoolik RiverAK0.7 F
Furthest
- Kilbuck MountainsAK89.8 F
- Fourpeaked RAWSAK38.8 F
- Cedar Grove RAWSCA14.1 F
- Stonyford RAWSCA12.9 F
- Little Valley Wrcc RAWSNV10.7 F
199 snow pillows scoredStorm Station’s temperature forecast off by 2.8 F on average
- within 2 F56
- 2 to 4 F115
- 4 F or more28
Closest
- Deadman Hill SnotelCO0.7 F
- Niwot SnotelCO0.8 F
- Bison Lake SnotelCO0.8 F
- Sand Lake SnotelWY0.9 F
- Reno Hill SnotelWY0.9 F
Furthest
- Saddle Mtn. SnotelMT8.2 F
- Northeast Entrance SnotelMT8.1 F
- Bogus Basin SnotelID7.6 F
- Summit Ranch SnotelCO7.0 F
- Roach SnotelCO6.4 F
78 river and lake gauges scoredStorm Station’s temperature forecast off by 2.7 F on average
- within 2 F32
- 2 to 4 F37
- 4 F or more9
Closest
- Mission - AransasTX0.5 F
- NaubinwayMI0.6 F
- Elfin Cove 11W - Cape SpencerAK0.7 F
- Big Sable PointMI0.8 F
- St Clair ShoresMI0.8 F
Furthest
- Grand LakeCO11.7 F
- Giant ForestCA8.0 F
- Judith River Wma CRNMT6.9 F
- Juneau - Sheep MtnAK6.4 F
- Bondurant - DcpWY6.0 F
47 road stations scoredStorm Station’s temperature forecast off by 2.9 F on average
- within 2 F11
- 2 to 4 F28
- 4 F or more8
Closest
- Edgerton Hwy @ Richardson Highway MP 83AK1.1 F
- Seward Highway @ Divide MP 11.7AK1.2 F
- Glenn Highway @ Thunderbird Falls MP 24AK1.5 F
- Blaquiere PointAK1.6 F
- Haines Highway @ Chilkat R. Br. MP 23.8AK1.7 F
Furthest
- Two Medicine Bridge US-2 MP 210. MT US MT DOTMT5.6 F
- FarsonWY5.5 F
- Monida Pass I-15 MP 0.3MT4.7 F
- Sd RWIS PeeverSD4.7 F
- Inverness US-2 MP 337.6MT4.5 F
15 other stations scoredStorm Station’s temperature forecast off by 3.3 F on average
- within 2 F5
- 2 to 4 F5
- 4 F or more5
Closest
- Rochester PierNY1.2 F
- Saxon HarborWI1.3 F
- Manistee HarborMI1.4 F
- Scofield DamUT1.7 F
- Waukegan HarborIL1.7 F
Furthest
- Soldiers Meadow Rsvr DamID11.2 F
- Henrys Fork 1 W Island Park Dam and ReservoirID5.0 F
- Big Sandy River AT Big Sandy ReservoirWY4.5 F
- Hungry Horse DamMT4.3 F
- Whitman Lake DamAK4.2 F
Each square a station of the Blend that is not an airfield, shaded by how far Storm Station’s temperature forecast missed it, averaged over the forecast hours scored; drawn and ranked where 24 or more were scored. Storm Station’s correction learns at each station from its first day scored, so at first it is the NBM’s own forecast.
839 of 2,496 airfields closer than the NBM45 in 100 of those not level
- closer by 0.5 F or more290
- closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F549
- level, within 0.1 F619
- further by 0.1 to 0.5 F598
- further by 0.5 F or more440
At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 2 of 70, level at 63 and further at 5. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.
913 of 2,512 airfields closer than the NBM47 in 100 of those not level
- closer by 0.5 mph or more313
- closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph600
- level, within 0.1 mph587
- further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph689
- further by 0.5 mph or more323
At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 14 of 70, level at 55 and further at 1. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.
1,403 of 2,094 airfields closer than the NBM77 in 100 of those not level
- closer by 5 points or more987
- closer by 1 to 5 points416
- level, within 1 point269
- further by 1 to 5 points234
- further by 5 points or more188
At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 1 of 67, level at 60 and further at 6. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.
How close was Storm Station on October 14, 2026?
The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.4 F on average, and within 5 F in 91 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.1 F warm.
- Hours of reports
- 24 of 24
- Temperature forecasts scored
- 240,206
- Readings checked
- 116,570
- Readings that failed
- 133
- Misses over 10 F
- 1,142
Who came closest on October 14, 2026
Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.
- 1Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+5.1%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.3 FWind2.5 mphSky cover15.9 points
- 2ECMWF AIFSArtificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model+3.8%Temperature2.2 FDew point1.9 FWind3.1 mphSky cover17.6 points
- 3NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.4 FDew point2.1 FWind2.5 mphSky cover21.6 points
- 4National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-0.1%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.2 FWind2.5 mphSky cover21.3 points
- 5Storm StationThe engine’s own forecast, as every page prints it-0.3%Temperature2.4 FDew point2.1 FWind2.5 mphSky cover21.9 points
- 6ECMWF IFSIntegrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model-6.6%Temperature2.5 FDew point2.1 FWind2.9 mphSky cover23.5 points
- 7NOAA HRRRHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour-9.7%Temperature2.7 FDew point2.4 FWind2.9 mphSky cover22.4 points
- 8NOAA NAMNorth American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48-19.7%Temperature2.7 FDew point2.7 FWind2.8 mphSky cover27.9 points
- 9NOAA GFSGlobal Forecast System, NOAA’s global model-24.5%Temperature2.7 FDew point3.1 FWind2.8 mphSky cover28.1 points
Every forecast, every day
The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.
What changed
- Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
- From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
- Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
- Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
- From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
- Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
- NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
- From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
- NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
- Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.
Scorecard
Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.
| Forecast | Temperature | Dew point | Wind | Sky cover | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 6 | 7 to 12 | 13 to 18 | 19 to 25 | All | 1 to 6 | 7 to 12 | 13 to 18 | 19 to 25 | All | 1 to 6 | 7 to 12 | 13 to 18 | 19 to 25 | All | 1 to 6 | 7 to 12 | 13 to 18 | 19 to 25 | All | |
| Storm Stationat the 70 airports | -1.4% | 0% | -1.7% | -0.4% | -0.6% | 0% | -1.5% | 0% | -1.3% | -0.9% | +1.6% | +1.2% | +2% | +1.2% | +1.6% | -1.5% | -0.6% | -0.8% | -1.4% | -1.1% |
| National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports | +5.4% | +3.5% | 0% | +1.2% | +2.4% | -3.1% | -4.4% | -3.2% | -5.3% | -4.1% | +1.2% | +0.4% | +0.8% | -2.3% | +0.1% | +5.3% | +3.4% | -2.1% | -0.3% | +1.4% |
| NOAA GFSat the 70 airports | -15.8% | -13.4% | -12.7% | -11.5% | -13.1% | -51.8% | -52.2% | -42.5% | -41% | -46.4% | -7.1% | -9.1% | -7.1% | -11.7% | -8.8% | -37.7% | -32% | -27.7% | -23.1% | -29.7% |
| NOAA HRRRat the 70 airports | -7.7% | -14.3% | -19.1% | -16.6% | -13% | -11.8% | -15.1% | -9.1% | -12.8% | -11.4% | -8.3% | -13.4% | -13.7% | -13.7% | -11.4% | -15.6% | -3.7% | -1.5% | +3.7% | -2.8% |
| NOAA NAMat the 70 airports | -14.9% | -15.2% | -16.5% | -17.8% | -14.5% | -30.8% | -28.3% | -22.4% | -24.2% | -25.3% | -7.9% | -11.5% | -16.1% | -12.5% | -11.1% | -25.2% | -28.4% | -30.1% | -30.9% | -27.7% |
| ECMWF IFSat the 70 airports | -3.2% | -6.1% | -4.2% | -4.7% | -4.2% | +3.6% | +2% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +2.3% | -14.2% | -15.4% | -15.7% | -18% | -15.8% | -4.6% | -10.1% | -10.5% | -10.2% | -8.6% |
| ECMWF AIFSat the 70 airports | +3.2% | +6.1% | +6.4% | +10.7% | +7% | +7.7% | +9.3% | +10% | +11.9% | +10% | -19.3% | -22.1% | -21.2% | -20.7% | -20.7% | +15.3% | +16.5% | +19% | +22.5% | +18.7% |
| Storm Station correctionat every airfield | -0.8% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 0% | -0.4% | -3.3% | -2.7% | -2.2% | -0.4% | -1.8% | 0% | +0.4% | 0% | 0% | +0.4% | +18.5% | +19.9% | +20.8% | +19.9% | +19.9% |
- 10% or more closer
- 5 to 10% closer
- 1 to 5% closer
- level
- 1 to 5% further
- 5 to 10% further
- 10% or more further
How the engine works
Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 14, 2026’s.
Measured
- Airfield reports every hour, every airport
- Weather stations every open network heard
- Radar every few minutes
- Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour
Forecast
- NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
- National Weather Service forecast compared every day
- NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
- Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
- Served every page, card and answer
Checked
- Checked 116,570 readings, 133 set aside
- What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour
Scored
- Scored the next day 3,673,061 forecast hours
- Each large miss explained 1,142 over 10 F, who was wrong
Learned
- Learned 36,574 figures, 17 days kept
- Challenger scored beside the lead
- Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance
The targets
Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:
- T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.38 F, the NBM 2.36 FBehind today by 0.01 F
- T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.14 F, the NBM 2.12 FBehind today by 0.02 F
- T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.51 mph, the NBM 2.55 mphAhead today by 0.04 mph
- T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 21.88 points, the NBM 21.64 pointsBehind today by 0.23 points
- T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station 43 in 100 hours, the NBM 43; off by 0.67 categories, the NBM 0.67Level today
- T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it71 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 52Too wide today
- T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.37 against 0.41, 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.04
- T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.29 against 0.30 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.01
- T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forwardStorm Station 2.24 F, the NBM 2.23 F, the last reading carried forward 4.21 F, temperature 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.01 F
Every day scored
The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.
Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield
Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield
Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield
Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield
Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield
Misses of more than 10 F
| Day | Hours | Storm Station, temperature | Blend, temperature | Within 5 F | Storm Station, wind | Blend, wind | Rain skill, 1 to 6 h | Misses over 10 F | Readings that failed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14, 2026 | 24 | 2.4 F | 2.6 F | 91 in 100 | 2.5 mph | 2.6 mph | 0.36 | 1,142 | 133 |
| October 13, 2026 | 24 | 2.2 F | 2.4 F | 93 in 100 | 2.5 mph | 2.5 mph | 0.32 | 1,229 | 139 |
| October 12, 2026 | 24 | 2.2 F | 2.3 F | 92 in 100 | 2.7 mph | 2.8 mph | 0.38 | 871 | 141 |
| October 11, 2026 | 24 | 2.3 F | 2.5 F | 92 in 100 | 3.0 mph | 3.0 mph | 0.48 | 581 | 156 |
| October 10, 2026 | 24 | 2.4 F | 2.6 F | 89 in 100 | 3.1 mph | 3.2 mph | 0.46 | 889 | 243 |
| October 9, 2026 | 24 | 2.2 F | 2.5 F | 93 in 100 | 2.5 mph | 2.6 mph | 0.46 | 746 | 380 |
| October 8, 2026 | 24 | 2.1 F | 2.5 F | 94 in 100 | 2.4 mph | 2.3 mph | 0.39 | 575 | 323 |
| October 7, 2026 | 24 | 2.2 F | 2.6 F | 94 in 100 | 2.5 mph | 2.3 mph | 0.33 | 659 | 262 |
| October 6, 2026 | 24 | 2.0 F | 2.5 F | 95 in 100 | 2.4 mph | 2.5 mph | 0.34 | 518 | 302 |
| October 5, 2026 | 24 | 2.2 F | 2.5 F | 94 in 100 | 2.6 mph | 2.5 mph | 0.41 | 539 | 303 |
| October 4, 2026 | 24 | 2.2 F | 2.5 F | 93 in 100 | 2.3 mph | 2.4 mph | 0.34 | 507 | 244 |
| October 3, 2026 | 24 | 2.3 F | 2.4 F | 92 in 100 | 2.3 mph | 2.5 mph | 0.24 | 505 | 246 |
| October 2, 2026 | 24 | 2.1 F | 2.3 F | 92 in 100 | 2.4 mph | 2.6 mph | 0.39 | 376 | 219 |
| October 1, 2026 | 24 | 1.9 F | 2.3 F | 95 in 100 | 2.5 mph | 2.6 mph | 0.44 | 500 | 169 |
| September 30, 2026 | 24 | 2.1 F | 2.3 F | 94 in 100 | 2.4 mph | 2.5 mph | 0.44 | 364 | 191 |
| September 29, 2026 | 24 | 1.9 F | 2.3 F | 95 in 100 | 2.5 mph | 2.5 mph | 0.38 | 388 | 154 |
| September 28, 2026 | 24 | 2.4 F | 2.4 F | 91 in 100 | 2.4 mph | 2.4 mph | - | 421 | 171 |
October 14, 2026, in depth
How far ahead the forecast was made
A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.
Temperature
Wind
Dew point
Sky cover
Which way each forecast missed
A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.
Temperature
Wind
Dew point
Sky cover
Closest
| Airfield | State | Mean miss | Ran | Hours | Misses over 10 F, who was wrong |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KPTW Heritage Field | PA | 0.5 F | even | 16 | - |
| PAGM Gambell Airport | AK | 0.5 F | 0.2 F warm | 100 | - |
| KNOG Orange Grove Naval Auxiliary Landing Field | TX | 0.5 F | 0.1 F warm | 88 | - |
| KARM Wharton Regional Airport | TX | 0.6 F | 0.2 F cool | 100 | - |
| PAIW Wales Airport | AK | 0.6 F | 0.3 F cool | 51 | - |
| KCIU Chippewa County International Airport | MI | 0.7 F | 0.1 F cool | 100 | - |
| KCWF Chennault International Airport | LA | 0.7 F | 0.1 F cool | 91 | - |
| KMTH Florida Keys Marathon International Airport | FL | 0.7 F | 0.3 F cool | 100 | - |
| KATP | - | 0.7 F | even | 100 | - |
| KGRY | - | 0.7 F | 0.2 F warm | 100 | - |
| KFMY Page Field | FL | 0.7 F | 0.1 F cool | 100 | - |
| PAUT Akutan Airport | AK | 0.7 F | even | 21 | - |
Furthest
| Airfield | State | Mean miss | Ran | Hours | Misses over 10 F, who was wrong |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC99 | - | 12.7 F | 12.7 F warm | 17 | - |
| KDDC Dodge City Regional Airport | KS | 9.0 F | 9.0 F warm | 100 | cannot be told 2 |
| KDUX Moore County Airport | TX | 9.0 F | 8.1 F warm | 92 | the forecast, at this station 4, the forecast, across the area 2 |
| K1NW | - | 8.8 F | 6.5 F warm | 100 | the forecast, at this station 3 |
| KEHA Elkhart Morton County Airport | KS | 8.8 F | 8.8 F warm | 100 | the forecast, at this station 2 |
| KGUY Guymon Municipal Airport | OK | 8.8 F | 8.6 F warm | 100 | the forecast, across the area 2 |
| KLBL Liberal Mid-America Regional Airport | KS | 8.7 F | 8.7 F warm | 100 | the forecast, across the area 3 |
| KEWK Newton City-County Airport | KS | 8.7 F | 8.7 F warm | 84 | - |
| KMHT Manchester-Boston Regional Airport | NH | 8.7 F | 7.3 F warm | 100 | the forecast, at this station 4 |
| KPSM Portsmouth International Airport at Pease | NH | 8.5 F | 8.4 F warm | 100 | the forecast, at this station 2 |
| KJHN Stanton County Municipal Airport | KS | 8.3 F | 8.3 F warm | 96 | the forecast, across the area 2 |
| KHQG Hugoton Municipal Airport | KS | 8.3 F | 8.3 F warm | 96 | the forecast, across the area 5 |
Why the large misses happened
Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.
| Airfield | Hour | Said | Read | Off by | Its neighbours | Hours ahead | Who was wrong |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KGVW | 13 UTC | 63 F | 82.4 F | 19.4 F low | 79.8 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 14 UTC | 64 F | 82.4 F | 18.4 F low | 82.1 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KBAN | 16 UTC | 46 F | 28.0 F | 18.0 F high | - | 4 | Cannot be told |
| KGVW | 11 UTC | 65 F | 82.4 F | 17.4 F low | 79.8 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 12 UTC | 65 F | 82.4 F | 17.4 F low | 78.7 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 15 UTC | 65 F | 82.4 F | 17.4 F low | 83.9 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 18 UTC | 65 F | 82.4 F | 17.4 F low | 87.7 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KEKS | 00 UTC | 53 F | 35.6 F | 17.4 F high | 37.2 F | 12 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 20 UTC | 67 F | 84.2 F | 17.2 F low | 88.8 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1MM | 18 UTC | 54 F | 37.2 F | 16.8 F high | 46.8 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1NW | 19 UTC | 60 F | 43.5 F | 16.5 F high | 43.9 F | 7 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 09 UTC | 66 F | 82.4 F | 16.4 F low | 80.7 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 10 UTC | 66 F | 82.4 F | 16.4 F low | 79.8 F | 4 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 16 UTC | 66 F | 82.4 F | 16.4 F low | 86.8 F | 4 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 17 UTC | 66 F | 82.4 F | 16.4 F low | 87.5 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 21 UTC | 66 F | 82.4 F | 16.4 F low | 88.7 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 22 UTC | 66 F | 82.4 F | 16.4 F low | 86.8 F | 4 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 23 UTC | 66 F | 82.4 F | 16.4 F low | 83.9 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1MM | 22 UTC | 57 F | 40.6 F | 16.4 F high | 48.2 F | 10 | The forecast, at this station |
| KCID | 01 UTC | 68 F | 84.2 F | 16.2 F low | 68.0 F | 1 | The station |
| KHYS | 00 UTC | 73 F | 57.0 F | 16.0 F high | 60.6 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KTAD | 22 UTC | 64 F | 48.0 F | 16.0 F high | - | 4 | Cannot be told |
| K1MM | 19 UTC | 56 F | 40.5 F | 15.5 F high | 47.8 F | 7 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 08 UTC | 67 F | 82.4 F | 15.4 F low | 79.8 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 19 UTC | 67 F | 82.4 F | 15.4 F low | 89.3 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGYI | 20 UTC | 87 F | 71.6 F | 15.4 F high | 82.8 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| K36K | 00 UTC | 78 F | 62.6 F | 15.4 F high | 65.2 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KLQR | 00 UTC | 78 F | 62.6 F | 15.4 F high | 62.8 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KWYS | 19 UTC | 51 F | 35.6 F | 15.4 F high | - | 7 | Cannot be told |
| KDUX | 18 UTC | 67 F | 51.8 F | 15.2 F high | 55.7 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KDDC | 00 UTC | 80 F | 64.9 F | 15.1 F high | - | 6 | Cannot be told |
| KHUT | 00 UTC | 80 F | 64.9 F | 15.1 F high | 69.1 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KRAL | 14 UTC | 54 F | 69.1 F | 15.1 F low | 53.6 F | 2 | The station |
| K1IM | 00 UTC | 54 F | 39.0 F | 15.0 F high | 44.5 F | 12 | The forecast, at this station |
| KBAN | 15 UTC | 34 F | 19.0 F | 15.0 F high | - | 3 | Cannot be told |
| KBAN | 17 UTC | 54 F | 39.0 F | 15.0 F high | - | 5 | Cannot be told |
| KDHT | 20 UTC | 67 F | 52.0 F | 15.0 F high | - | 2 | Cannot be told |
| KDHT | 21 UTC | 67 F | 52.0 F | 15.0 F high | - | 3 | Cannot be told |
| KDHT | 22 UTC | 67 F | 52.0 F | 15.0 F high | - | 4 | Cannot be told |
| KDHT | 23 UTC | 67 F | 52.0 F | 15.0 F high | - | 5 | Cannot be told |
| KGCK | 00 UTC | 79 F | 64.0 F | 15.0 F high | 63.9 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KGUY | 20 UTC | 69 F | 54.0 F | 15.0 F high | 52.1 F | 14 | The forecast, across the area |
| KSIY | 03 UTC | 61 F | 46.0 F | 15.0 F high | 50.8 F | 15 | The forecast, at this station |
| KLYO | 00 UTC | 78 F | 63.1 F | 14.9 F high | 64.0 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KTCC | 23 UTC | 77 F | 62.1 F | 14.9 F high | - | 5 | Cannot be told |
| K1IM | 21 UTC | 58 F | 43.3 F | 14.7 F high | 51.2 F | 9 | The forecast, at this station |
| KTMT | 18 UTC | 59 F | 44.4 F | 14.6 F high | - | 6 | Cannot be told |
| KGVW | 07 UTC | 68 F | 82.4 F | 14.4 F low | 80.2 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| KDUX | 22 UTC | 68 F | 53.6 F | 14.4 F high | 55.7 F | 4 | The forecast, at this station |
| KDUX | 23 UTC | 68 F | 53.6 F | 14.4 F high | 55.7 F | 5 | The forecast, across the area |
| KEKS | 18 UTC | 50 F | 35.6 F | 14.4 F high | 35.5 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| K1CM | 22 UTC | 56 F | 41.7 F | 14.3 F high | 47.6 F | 10 | The forecast, at this station |
| KEHA | 18 UTC | 63 F | 48.7 F | 14.3 F high | 49.6 F | 12 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1IM | 19 UTC | 55 F | 40.8 F | 14.2 F high | 48.4 F | 7 | The forecast, at this station |
| K22N | 09 UTC | 66 F | 51.8 F | 14.2 F high | 62.1 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| K22N | 10 UTC | 66 F | 51.8 F | 14.2 F high | 61.5 F | 4 | The forecast, at this station |
| KDUX | 17 UTC | 66 F | 51.8 F | 14.2 F high | 54.8 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| KBGD | 21 UTC | 70 F | 55.9 F | 14.1 F high | 60.4 F | 3 | The forecast, across the area |
| KPSM | 15 UTC | 69 F | 54.9 F | 14.1 F high | 62.5 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KTAD | 23 UTC | 61 F | 46.9 F | 14.1 F high | - | 5 | Cannot be told |
| K05U | 20 UTC | 64 F | 50.0 F | 14.0 F high | - | 8 | Cannot be told |
| K06D | 20 UTC | 55 F | 41.0 F | 14.0 F high | 41.9 F | 8 | The forecast, across the area |
| K06D | 21 UTC | 55 F | 41.0 F | 14.0 F high | 43.5 F | 9 | The forecast, across the area |
| K1BM | 18 UTC | 57 F | 43.0 F | 14.0 F high | 43.2 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| K1IM | 20 UTC | 57 F | 43.0 F | 14.0 F high | 49.8 F | 8 | The forecast, at this station |
| KAGO | 20 UTC | 91 F | 77.0 F | 14.0 F high | 89.9 F | 2 | The station |
| KD55 | 22 UTC | 55 F | 41.0 F | 14.0 F high | 43.5 F | 10 | The forecast, across the area |
| KD60 | 16 UTC | 46 F | 32.0 F | 14.0 F high | 40.2 F | 4 | The forecast, at this station |
| KDHT | 18 UTC | 66 F | 52.0 F | 14.0 F high | - | 6 | Cannot be told |
| KDLN | 20 UTC | 51 F | 37.0 F | 14.0 F high | 43.3 F | 8 | Cannot be told |
| KDLN | 21 UTC | 53 F | 39.0 F | 14.0 F high | 45.1 F | 9 | Cannot be told |
| KHQG | 19 UTC | 64 F | 50.0 F | 14.0 F high | 50.1 F | 13 | The forecast, across the area |
| KLBL | 19 UTC | 66 F | 52.0 F | 14.0 F high | 51.1 F | 13 | The forecast, across the area |
| KMHT | 12 UTC | 62 F | 48.0 F | 14.0 F high | 52.2 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KMHT | 14 UTC | 66 F | 52.0 F | 14.0 F high | 61.2 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KMHT | 15 UTC | 69 F | 55.0 F | 14.0 F high | 67.2 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KRSL | 00 UTC | 73 F | 59.0 F | 14.0 F high | 62.8 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KSIY | 06 UTC | 55 F | 41.0 F | 14.0 F high | 42.9 F | 18 | The forecast, across the area |
| KSPD | 23 UTC | 62 F | 48.0 F | 14.0 F high | 47.8 F | 17 | The forecast, across the area |
| KTAD | 21 UTC | 66 F | 52.0 F | 14.0 F high | - | 3 | Cannot be told |
| KTVL | 15 UTC | 37 F | 23.0 F | 14.0 F high | 24.4 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KTVL | 16 UTC | 48 F | 34.0 F | 14.0 F high | 33.8 F | 4 | The forecast, across the area |
| KWYS | 18 UTC | 46 F | 32.0 F | 14.0 F high | - | 6 | Cannot be told |
| KNFG | 14 UTC | 57 F | 43.0 F | 14.0 F high | 54.4 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KMLC | 18 UTC | 83 F | 69.1 F | 13.9 F high | 70.6 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KDLN | 19 UTC | 49 F | 35.1 F | 13.9 F high | 39.7 F | 7 | Cannot be told |
| KGTF | 21 UTC | 58 F | 44.1 F | 13.9 F high | 51.5 F | 9 | The forecast, at this station |
| KMEV | 13 UTC | 35 F | 21.2 F | 13.8 F high | 28.3 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| KTSP | 14 UTC | 44 F | 30.2 F | 13.8 F high | 34.2 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1BM | 21 UTC | 60 F | 46.2 F | 13.8 F high | 45.5 F | 9 | The forecast, across the area |
| KOEL | 00 UTC | 67 F | 53.2 F | 13.8 F high | 55.1 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KPSM | 14 UTC | 66 F | 52.2 F | 13.8 F high | 54.9 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KPTT | 00 UTC | 80 F | 66.2 F | 13.8 F high | 63.6 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KTQK | 00 UTC | 73 F | 59.2 F | 13.8 F high | 62.9 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| K1AM | 00 UTC | 52 F | 38.3 F | 13.7 F high | 39.9 F | 12 | The forecast, at this station |
| KE42 | 17 UTC | 66 F | 52.3 F | 13.7 F high | 55.3 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| K08D | 17 UTC | 51 F | 37.4 F | 13.6 F high | 44.6 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1CM | 19 UTC | 56 F | 42.4 F | 13.6 F high | 46.5 F | 7 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1CM | 21 UTC | 58 F | 44.4 F | 13.6 F high | 48.8 F | 9 | The forecast, at this station |
| KMEV | 06 UTC | 42 F | 28.4 F | 13.6 F high | 36.1 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KDUA | 19 UTC | 87 F | 73.4 F | 13.6 F high | 88.0 F | 1 | The station |
| K1BM | 17 UTC | 54 F | 40.5 F | 13.5 F high | 41.0 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| KLLR | 19 UTC | 60 F | 73.4 F | 13.4 F low | - | 1 | Cannot be told |
| KADM | 18 UTC | 85 F | 71.6 F | 13.4 F high | 72.9 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| K05U | 22 UTC | 67 F | 53.6 F | 13.4 F high | - | 10 | Cannot be told |
| K1BM | 20 UTC | 60 F | 46.6 F | 13.4 F high | 48.5 F | 8 | The forecast, at this station |
| K22N | 06 UTC | 67 F | 53.6 F | 13.4 F high | 66.1 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| K22N | 07 UTC | 67 F | 53.6 F | 13.4 F high | 63.7 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| K22N | 08 UTC | 67 F | 53.6 F | 13.4 F high | 62.4 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KDUX | 20 UTC | 67 F | 53.6 F | 13.4 F high | 54.8 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KDUX | 21 UTC | 67 F | 53.6 F | 13.4 F high | 53.7 F | 3 | The forecast, across the area |
| KEKS | 01 UTC | 49 F | 35.6 F | 13.4 F high | 34.4 F | 13 | The forecast, at this station |
| KMEV | 15 UTC | 40 F | 26.6 F | 13.4 F high | 31.6 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KTSP | 15 UTC | 49 F | 35.6 F | 13.4 F high | 37.5 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1DM | 21 UTC | 59 F | 45.7 F | 13.3 F high | 49.4 F | 9 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1NW | 18 UTC | 57 F | 43.7 F | 13.3 F high | 43.7 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGTB | 02 UTC | 62 F | 48.7 F | 13.3 F high | 45.4 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KTMT | 17 UTC | 50 F | 36.7 F | 13.3 F high | - | 5 | Cannot be told |
| K22N | 12 UTC | 65 F | 51.8 F | 13.2 F high | 62.4 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| K9K7 | 00 UTC | 74 F | 60.8 F | 13.2 F high | - | 6 | Cannot be told |
| KEKS | 17 UTC | 47 F | 33.8 F | 13.2 F high | 33.5 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| KHQG | 21 UTC | 65 F | 51.8 F | 13.2 F high | 50.6 F | 15 | The forecast, across the area |
| KHQG | 22 UTC | 65 F | 51.8 F | 13.2 F high | 51.7 F | 16 | The forecast, across the area |
| K3U3 | 18 UTC | 50 F | 36.9 F | 13.1 F high | 38.2 F | 6 | Cannot be told |
| KBGD | 23 UTC | 71 F | 57.9 F | 13.1 F high | 61.4 F | 5 | The forecast, across the area |
| KEHA | 17 UTC | 62 F | 48.9 F | 13.1 F high | 48.7 F | 11 | The forecast, at this station |
| KSPD | 20 UTC | 62 F | 48.9 F | 13.1 F high | 46.7 F | 14 | The forecast, across the area |
| KSPD | 21 UTC | 62 F | 48.9 F | 13.1 F high | 46.5 F | 15 | The forecast, across the area |
| K06D | 19 UTC | 54 F | 41.0 F | 13.0 F high | 41.9 F | 7 | The forecast, across the area |
| K08D | 18 UTC | 54 F | 41.0 F | 13.0 F high | 46.7 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KADH | 17 UTC | 81 F | 68.0 F | 13.0 F high | 69.3 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| KART | 00 UTC | 63 F | 50.0 F | 13.0 F high | 50.3 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KASH | 13 UTC | 63 F | 50.0 F | 13.0 F high | 54.8 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| KBGD | 17 UTC | 70 F | 57.0 F | 13.0 F high | 60.4 F | 11 | The forecast, at this station |
| KCAO | 19 UTC | 67 F | 54.0 F | 13.0 F high | - | 13 | Cannot be told |
| KCON | 15 UTC | 68 F | 55.0 F | 13.0 F high | 62.6 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KD55 | 19 UTC | 54 F | 41.0 F | 13.0 F high | 43.1 F | 7 | The forecast, across the area |
| KD55 | 20 UTC | 54 F | 41.0 F | 13.0 F high | 42.6 F | 8 | The forecast, across the area |
| KGBD | 00 UTC | 77 F | 64.0 F | 13.0 F high | 62.7 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KGCK | 01 UTC | 72 F | 59.0 F | 13.0 F high | 59.7 F | 1 | The forecast, across the area |
| KGTF | 20 UTC | 56 F | 43.0 F | 13.0 F high | 49.8 F | 8 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGUY | 15 UTC | 63 F | 50.0 F | 13.0 F high | 50.3 F | 9 | The forecast, across the area |
| KHQG | 17 UTC | 63 F | 50.0 F | 13.0 F high | 50.0 F | 11 | The forecast, across the area |
| KHQG | 18 UTC | 63 F | 50.0 F | 13.0 F high | 50.0 F | 12 | The forecast, across the area |
| KHYS | 01 UTC | 67 F | 54.0 F | 13.0 F high | 57.6 F | 1 | The forecast, across the area |
| KLBL | 18 UTC | 65 F | 52.0 F | 13.0 F high | 51.0 F | 12 | The forecast, across the area |
| KLMT | 04 UTC | 50 F | 37.0 F | 13.0 F high | - | 16 | Cannot be told |
| KLNK | 02 UTC | 63 F | 50.0 F | 13.0 F high | 55.4 F | 20 | The forecast, at this station |
| KLWM | 14 UTC | 68 F | 55.0 F | 13.0 F high | 66.6 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KMHK | 00 UTC | 77 F | 64.0 F | 13.0 F high | 64.9 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KMHT | 13 UTC | 63 F | 50.0 F | 13.0 F high | 54.6 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| KRDK | 00 UTC | 72 F | 59.0 F | 13.0 F high | 58.1 F | 18 | The forecast, across the area |
| KSIY | 04 UTC | 59 F | 46.0 F | 13.0 F high | 47.1 F | 16 | The forecast, across the area |
| KSRE | 18 UTC | 81 F | 68.0 F | 13.0 F high | 69.1 F | 12 | The forecast, across the area |
| KULS | 00 UTC | 81 F | 68.0 F | 13.0 F high | 67.0 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KWYS | 20 UTC | 54 F | 41.0 F | 13.0 F high | - | 8 | Cannot be told |
| KICT | 01 UTC | 82 F | 69.1 F | 12.9 F high | 69.5 F | 13 | The forecast, across the area |
| K1CM | 18 UTC | 55 F | 42.1 F | 12.9 F high | 45.7 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KCON | 14 UTC | 64 F | 51.1 F | 12.9 F high | 54.6 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KDDC | 01 UTC | 73 F | 60.1 F | 12.9 F high | - | 1 | Cannot be told |
| KDHT | 19 UTC | 66 F | 53.1 F | 12.9 F high | - | 1 | Cannot be told |
| KGAG | 20 UTC | 73 F | 60.1 F | 12.9 F high | - | 14 | Cannot be told |
| KGLD | 00 UTC | 66 F | 53.1 F | 12.9 F high | 52.8 F | 18 | The forecast, across the area |
| KGTB | 03 UTC | 62 F | 49.1 F | 12.9 F high | 45.9 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KHUT | 03 UTC | 73 F | 60.1 F | 12.9 F high | 62.4 F | 21 | The forecast, across the area |
| KLBL | 17 UTC | 64 F | 51.1 F | 12.9 F high | 51.1 F | 11 | The forecast, across the area |
| KP68 | 20 UTC | 64 F | 51.1 F | 12.9 F high | - | 8 | Cannot be told |
| KRSL | 03 UTC | 66 F | 53.1 F | 12.9 F high | 55.9 F | 21 | The forecast, across the area |
| KSIY | 05 UTC | 57 F | 44.1 F | 12.9 F high | 44.2 F | 17 | The forecast, across the area |
| KSIY | 10 UTC | 48 F | 35.1 F | 12.9 F high | 39.5 F | 22 | The forecast, at this station |
| KSIY | 11 UTC | 46 F | 33.1 F | 12.9 F high | 38.1 F | 23 | The forecast, at this station |
| KSLN | 01 UTC | 75 F | 62.1 F | 12.9 F high | 63.6 F | 19 | The forecast, across the area |
| KNFG | 13 UTC | 57 F | 44.1 F | 12.9 F high | 55.2 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| K0F2 | 21 UTC | 88 F | 75.2 F | 12.8 F high | 89.7 F | 3 | The station |
| K4S1 | 21 UTC | 57 F | 69.8 F | 12.8 F low | 71.4 F | 3 | Cannot be told |
| K8V7 | 21 UTC | 61 F | 48.2 F | 12.8 F high | 46.5 F | 15 | The forecast, across the area |
| K8V7 | 23 UTC | 61 F | 48.2 F | 12.8 F high | 47.9 F | 17 | The forecast, across the area |
| KEKS | 19 UTC | 52 F | 39.2 F | 12.8 F high | 39.0 F | 7 | The forecast, across the area |
| KGTB | 01 UTC | 63 F | 50.2 F | 12.8 F high | 45.4 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| KJHN | 20 UTC | 61 F | 48.2 F | 12.8 F high | 50.3 F | 14 | The forecast, across the area |
| KJHN | 21 UTC | 61 F | 48.2 F | 12.8 F high | 50.8 F | 15 | The forecast, across the area |
| KMYZ | 00 UTC | 70 F | 57.2 F | 12.8 F high | 62.1 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| K1F0 | 18 UTC | 85 F | 72.3 F | 12.7 F high | 79.2 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1NW | 06 UTC | 35 F | 47.7 F | 12.7 F low | 45.5 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KOEL | 02 UTC | 62 F | 49.3 F | 12.7 F high | 48.5 F | 20 | The forecast, across the area |
| KLQR | 04 UTC | 68 F | 55.4 F | 12.6 F high | 55.2 F | 22 | The forecast, across the area |
| KMYZ | 01 UTC | 68 F | 55.4 F | 12.6 F high | 60.1 F | 19 | The forecast, at this station |
| KNRN | 02 UTC | 59 F | 46.4 F | 12.6 F high | 49.1 F | 20 | The forecast, at this station |
| KO26 | 14 UTC | 50 F | 37.4 F | 12.6 F high | - | 2 | Cannot be told |
| K0F2 | 20 UTC | 88 F | 75.4 F | 12.6 F high | 89.0 F | 2 | The station |
| K3K3 | 00 UTC | 77 F | 64.4 F | 12.6 F high | 62.6 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KBDQ | 18 UTC | 86 F | 73.4 F | 12.6 F high | 82.7 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KCCA | 19 UTC | 86 F | 73.4 F | 12.6 F high | 75.6 F | 1 | The forecast, across the area |
| KMPR | 00 UTC | 77 F | 64.4 F | 12.6 F high | 77.0 F | 6 | The forecast, across the area |
| KRKR | 21 UTC | 86 F | 73.4 F | 12.6 F high | 75.3 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1CM | 23 UTC | 54 F | 41.5 F | 12.5 F high | 49.5 F | 11 | The forecast, at this station |
| K1P1 | 15 UTC | 62 F | 49.5 F | 12.5 F high | 57.0 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KK82 | 02 UTC | 63 F | 50.5 F | 12.5 F high | 50.3 F | 20 | The forecast, across the area |
| KLYO | 03 UTC | 71 F | 58.5 F | 12.5 F high | 58.3 F | 21 | The forecast, across the area |
| KTMT | 19 UTC | 63 F | 50.5 F | 12.5 F high | - | 7 | Cannot be told |
Which forecast leads
The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.
- Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
- Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
- Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
- Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003
The full figures, October 14, 2026
Temperature
| Forecast | 1 to 6 h | 7 to 12 h | 13 to 18 h | 19 to 25 h | All | Ran | Inside its band | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 52% | 240,206 |
| Storm Station correction | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | +0.2 | 71% | 240,206 |
| National Weather Service forecast | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | -0.1 | - | 6,956 |
| NOAA GFS | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | +0.1 | - | 6,945 |
| NOAA HRRR | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | -1.1 | - | 6,656 |
| NOAA NAM | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | -0.3 | - | 6,656 |
| ECMWF IFS | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | -0.5 | - | 2,224 |
| ECMWF AIFS | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | -0.9 | - | 1,110 |
| Storm Station lead | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | +0.1 | 58% | 6,956 |
| NBM, at the 70 airports | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | +0.1 | 58% | 6,970 |
| Correction, at the 70 airports | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | +0.3 | 72% | 6,970 |
Dew point
| Forecast | 1 to 6 h | 7 to 12 h | 13 to 18 h | 19 to 25 h | All | Ran | Inside its band | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | +0.1 | 64% | 239,213 |
| Storm Station correction | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | -0.5 | 71% | 239,213 |
| National Weather Service forecast | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | +0.6 | - | 6,965 |
| NOAA GFS | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | -2.1 | - | 6,954 |
| NOAA HRRR | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | -0.4 | - | 6,665 |
| NOAA NAM | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | +1.4 | - | 6,665 |
| ECMWF IFS | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | +0.6 | - | 2,224 |
| ECMWF AIFS | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | +0.2 | - | 1,110 |
| Storm Station lead | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | +0.4 | 68% | 6,965 |
| NBM, at the 70 airports | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | +0.3 | 68% | 6,979 |
| Correction, at the 70 airports | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 66% | 6,979 |
Wind
| Forecast | 1 to 6 h | 7 to 12 h | 13 to 18 h | 19 to 25 h | All | Ran | Inside its band | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 51% | 240,001 |
| Storm Station correction | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 70% | 240,001 |
| National Weather Service forecast | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | +0.2 | - | 6,906 |
| NOAA GFS | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.3 | - | 6,941 |
| NOAA HRRR | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.7 | - | 6,652 |
| NOAA NAM | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.7 | - | 6,652 |
| ECMWF IFS | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | -1.3 | - | 2,216 |
| ECMWF AIFS | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | -1.3 | - | 1,106 |
| Storm Station lead | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.4 | - | 6,952 |
| NBM, at the 70 airports | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 54% | 6,967 |
| Correction, at the 70 airports | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 73% | 6,967 |
Sky cover
| Forecast | 1 to 6 h | 7 to 12 h | 13 to 18 h | 19 to 25 h | All | Ran | Inside its band | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) | 25.3 | 26.3 | 27.1 | 28.1 | 26.8 | -19.4 | 49% | 129,697 |
| Storm Station correction | 20.6 | 21.1 | 21.4 | 22.5 | 21.4 | -4.7 | 86% | 129,697 |
| National Weather Service forecast | 19.5 | 20.6 | 22.3 | 22.8 | 21.3 | -16.0 | - | 5,296 |
| NOAA GFS | 28.4 | 28.1 | 27.9 | 27.9 | 28.1 | -14.6 | - | 5,286 |
| NOAA HRRR | 23.8 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 21.9 | 22.4 | -5.3 | - | 5,004 |
| NOAA NAM | 25.8 | 27.3 | 28.4 | 29.7 | 27.9 | -14.9 | - | 5,004 |
| ECMWF IFS | 21.5 | 23.4 | 24.1 | 25.0 | 23.5 | -14.3 | - | 1,716 |
| ECMWF AIFS | 17.4 | 17.8 | 17.7 | 17.6 | 17.6 | -10.9 | - | 850 |
| Storm Station lead | 20.9 | 21.4 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 21.9 | -17.6 | - | 5,296 |
| NBM, at the 70 airports | 20.6 | 21.3 | 21.8 | 22.7 | 21.6 | -17.3 | 54% | 5,311 |
| Correction, at the 70 airports | 15.2 | 15.4 | 15.9 | 17.0 | 15.9 | -1.4 | 88% | 5,311 |
Rain
The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.
| Forecast | Brier, 1 to 6 h | Brier, 7 to 12 h | Brier, 13 to 18 h | Brier, 19 to 25 h | Skill, 1 to 6 h | Threat score, 0.01 in | Threat score, 0.10 in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) | 0.035 | 0.038 | 0.039 | 0.040 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| Storm Station lead | 0.040 | 0.042 | 0.043 | 0.048 | 0.37 | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| NBM, at the 70 airports | 0.037 | 0.042 | 0.043 | 0.044 | 0.41 | 0.30 | 0.23 |
Snow
The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.
- Stations scored
- 569
- Where snow fell or was forecast
- 129
- Mean miss, depth
- 2.5 in
- Sensors set aside
- 0
| New snow of at least | Hits | Misses | False alarms | Threat score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in | 53 | 7 | 69 | 0.35 |
| 3 in | 26 | 5 | 35 | 0.36 |
| 6 in | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0.12 |
How it is scored
What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.
The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.
The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.
The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.
The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.