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Live/Forecast engine/October 6, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 6, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 1,248 airfields, was level at 452 and further at 796. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,363 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 6, 2026: closer at 1,182, level at 427, further at 754; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,248 of 2,496 airfields closer than the NBM61 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more664
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F584
  3. level, within 0.1 F452
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F534
  5. further by 0.5 F or more262

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 70, level at 68 and further at 2. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,362 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 6, 2026: closer at 1,016, level at 549, further at 797; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,066 of 2,495 airfields closer than the NBM56 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more512
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F554
  3. level, within 0.1 F578
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F562
  5. further by 0.5 F or more289

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 2 of 70, level at 66 and further at 2. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,366 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 6, 2026: closer at 960, level at 524, further at 882; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,020 of 2,504 airfields closer than the NBM52 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more358
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph662
  3. level, within 0.1 mph546
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph646
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more292

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 13 of 70, level at 51 and further at 6. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,294 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 6, 2026: closer at 844, level at 234, further at 216; the 70 panel airports ringed

888 of 1,383 airfields closer than the NBM79 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more655
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points233
  3. level, within 1 point254
  4. further by 1 to 5 points125
  5. further by 5 points or more116

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 6 of 58, level at 46 and further at 6. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 6, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.0 F on average, and within 5 F in 95 of every 100 hours. It ran 1.0 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
242,726
Readings checked
119,646
Readings that failed
302
Misses over 10 F
518

Who came closest on October 6, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+10.9%Temperature1.8 FDew point2.0 FWind2.4 mphSky cover13.1 points
  2. 2Storm StationThe engine’s own forecast, as every page prints it+0.1%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.0 FWind2.4 mphSky cover19.3 points
  3. 3NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.0 FDew point2.0 FWind2.4 mphSky cover19.4 points
  4. 4National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-0.5%Temperature2.0 FDew point2.1 FWind2.4 mphSky cover19.0 points
  5. 5ECMWF AIFSArtificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model-4.7%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.2 FWind2.7 mphSky cover18.1 points
  6. 6ECMWF IFSIntegrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model-23.9%Temperature2.4 FDew point2.9 FWind2.8 mphSky cover22.3 points
  7. 7NOAA HRRRHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour-33.7%Temperature2.7 FDew point3.2 FWind2.7 mphSky cover26.5 points
  8. 8NOAA GFSGlobal Forecast System, NOAA’s global model-34.0%Temperature2.6 FDew point3.5 FWind2.7 mphSky cover24.1 points
  9. 9NOAA NAMNorth American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48-57.5%Temperature2.9 FDew point5.2 FWind2.6 mphSky cover23.7 points

Set aside on this day, each scored from fewer of the day’s forecasts than Storm Station and so not ranked beside it: NOAA GFS with HRRR (4 of 8).

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 6, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports0%-1%-1.5%-0.9%-0.9%0%0%0%-0.5%-0.1%+1.3%+1.2%+0.8%+1.2%+1.1%+0.2%-1.8%-0.4%+3.6%+0.5%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports+4.1%-2.1%+1.5%+0.9%+0.9%0%-2.6%-7.6%-10.4%-5.5%-0.4%+2.5%+1.2%0%+0.6%+0.9%-1.5%+5%+3.1%+2%
NOAA GFSat the 70 airports-28.6%-34%-26.7%-21.4%-27.3%-79%-76.5%-74.1%-72.3%-75.3%-9.6%-9%-7.7%-9.8%-9.1%-25.6%-30.7%-19.3%-23%-24.5%
NOAA HRRRat the 70 airports-27%-35.1%-34%-42.3%-33.6%-37.4%-54.6%-66.5%-76.7%-57.5%-10%-7%-6.9%-12.7%-10.6%-43.3%-34.2%-33.2%-36.5%-33.1%
NOAA NAMat the 70 airports-48%-52.6%-43.2%-38.6%-43.4%-182.1%-177%-162.9%-138.1%-160.1%-5.9%-5.3%-7.3%-6.5%-7.6%-30.3%-23.4%-22.3%-15%-19.1%
ECMWF IFSat the 70 airports-20.9%-20.6%-13.6%-14.4%-17.2%-37.4%-45.9%-51.3%-53%-46.9%-16.3%-15.2%-16.2%-18.4%-16.6%-12.9%-18.5%-12.7%-16.9%-14.9%
ECMWF AIFSat the 70 airports-5.1%-8.2%-2.4%+1.9%-3.2%-7.2%-12.2%-15.2%-16.3%-12.8%-12.1%-8.6%-8.9%-9%-9.8%+8.4%+2.6%+6.1%+8%+6.9%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield+8.9%+9.9%+9.1%+9.5%+8.9%+6.8%+6.4%+4.7%+6.7%+6%+1.6%+2%+2%+2.4%+2%+20.5%+20.6%+20.6%+21.1%+20.7%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 6, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 6, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked119,646 readings, 302 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day2,551,024 forecast hoursEach large miss explained518 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned33,370 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 119,646 readings, 302 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 2,551,024 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 518 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 33,370 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.05 F, the NBM 2.03 FBehind today by 0.02 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 1.98 F, the NBM 1.98 FLevel today
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.41 mph, the NBM 2.44 mphAhead today by 0.03 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 19.28 points, the NBM 19.38 pointsAhead today by 0.10 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it71 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 50Too wide today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.45 against 0.47, 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.02
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.33 against 0.32 at 0.01 inchLevel today
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 6, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 6, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRHRRRNAMNBMGFSECMWF IFSCorrectionStorm StationNWS forecastECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 6, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hECMWF IFSGFS with HRRRHRRRGFSECMWF AIFSNAMNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 6, 2026024681 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMGFS with HRRRHRRRGFSECMWF IFSNBMECMWF AIFSNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 6, 20260102030401 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNBMHRRRGFS with HRRRGFSECMWF IFSCorrectionNAMNWS forecastStorm StationECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.2 F coolStorm Station1.0 F coolNWS forecast1.0 F coolGFSevenHRRR1.5 F coolNAM0.1 F coolECMWF IFS1.1 F coolECMWF AIFS0.9 F coolGFS with HRRR2.0 F coolCorrection0.1 F cool

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.4 mph strongStorm Station0.2 mph strongNWS forecast0.1 mph strongGFS0.2 mph lightHRRR0.9 mph lightNAM0.5 mph lightECMWF IFS1.2 mph lightECMWF AIFS0.8 mph lightGFS with HRRR0.9 mph lightCorrection0.1 mph strong

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.8 F moistStorm Station0.7 F moistNWS forecast0.6 F moistGFS2.5 F dryHRRR1.2 F dryNAM4.8 F moistECMWF IFS1.2 F moistECMWF AIFS0.2 F dryGFS with HRRR2.8 F dryCorrection0.3 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM20.7 points clearStorm Station16.7 points clearNWS forecast15.4 points clearGFS8.4 points clearHRRR9.6 points clearNAM13.3 points clearECMWF IFS12.9 points clearECMWF AIFS11.2 points clearGFS with HRRR5.7 points clearCorrection8.6 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KO22 Columbia AirportCA0.5 Feven28-
KSAV Savannah Hilton Head International AirportGA0.7 F0.3 F cool100-
PAUT Akutan AirportAK0.7 F0.2 F warm100-
K54J Defuniak Springs AirportFL0.7 F0.2 F cool75-
PAFE Kake AirportAK0.7 F0.5 F warm100-
KRKW Rockwood Municipal AirportTN0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
KOMN Ormond Beach Municipal AirportFL0.7 F0.2 F cool54-
PASN St Paul Island AirportAK0.7 F0.2 F cool100-
PASD Sand Point AirportAK0.7 F0.1 F warm100-
TJSJ Luis Munoz Marin International AirportPR0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
PHKO Ellison Onizuka Kona International Airport at KeāholeHI0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
KAUO Auburn University Regional AirportAL0.8 F0.3 F cool100-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KNSI San Nicolas Island Nolf AirportCA7.5 F7.5 F cool84cannot be told 2
KLLR Little River AirportCA6.4 F6.3 F warm100-
KD57 Glen Ullin Regional AirportND6.4 F5.7 F warm96the forecast, at this station 9, the station 1
KGVW-5.7 F0.1 F cool100the forecast, at this station 16
KFYV Drake FieldAR5.5 F4.2 F warm100the forecast, at this station 1
KOCQ J. Douglas Bake Memorial AirportWI5.5 F4.9 F cool96-
KBVO Bartlesville Municipal AirportOK5.5 F5.1 F warm100the forecast, at this station 1
KHEI Hettinger Municipal AirportND5.4 F3.1 F warm88the forecast, at this station 3, the station 1
K3U3 Bowman FieldMT5.4 F3.5 F warm96-
KCDR Chadron Municipal AirportNE5.3 F4.8 F warm100cannot be told 1
KSJX Beaver Island AirportMI5.3 F3.1 F warm100the forecast, at this station 5
K1K8 South Grand Lake Regional AirportOK5.3 F4.1 F warm100-

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station46The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area1Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station357Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told114Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 6, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
KMHT14 UTC49 F10.0 F39.0 F high49.8 F2The station
KMHT12 UTC42 F7.0 F35.0 F high45.4 F6The station
KMHT13 UTC46 F80.1 F34.1 F low47.6 F1The station
KMHT11 UTC41 F7.0 F34.0 F high43.4 F5The station
KGVW12 UTC50 F80.6 F30.6 F low74.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KSYM16 UTC64 F33.8 F30.2 F high64.3 F4The station
KGVW10 UTC51 F80.6 F29.6 F low75.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW11 UTC51 F80.6 F29.6 F low74.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW07 UTC53 F82.4 F29.4 F low76.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW09 UTC52 F80.6 F28.6 F low76.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC53 F80.6 F27.6 F low76.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC55 F82.4 F27.4 F low78.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC56 F82.4 F26.4 F low79.2 F5The forecast, at this station
K57C16 UTC64 F37.6 F26.4 F high63.5 F4The station
KGVW04 UTC57 F82.4 F25.4 F low80.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC56 F80.6 F24.6 F low73.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW03 UTC58 F82.4 F24.4 F low81.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW02 UTC60 F82.4 F22.4 F low82.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW14 UTC60 F80.6 F20.6 F low76.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW01 UTC62 F82.4 F20.4 F low82.1 F1The forecast, at this station
K57C15 UTC61 F40.6 F20.4 F high59.3 F3The station
K57C14 UTC56 F37.9 F18.1 F high53.2 F2The station
KEMT21 UTC100 F82.4 F17.6 F high100.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW00 UTC65 F82.4 F17.4 F low82.1 F6The forecast, at this station
K57C13 UTC52 F34.7 F17.3 F high48.5 F1The station
K57C11 UTC46 F29.5 F16.5 F high49.0 F5The station
KO2603 UTC79 F62.6 F16.4 F high-3Cannot be told
KO2609 UTC70 F53.6 F16.4 F high-3Cannot be told
KO2602 UTC82 F66.2 F15.8 F high-2Cannot be told
K1NW22 UTC73 F88.7 F15.7 F low85.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW15 UTC65 F80.6 F15.6 F low79.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KD5704 UTC60 F44.6 F15.4 F high56.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KAIA13 UTC53 F37.9 F15.1 F high51.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KBHK14 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KMEH15 UTC47 F32.0 F15.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KMEH16 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KO2606 UTC74 F59.0 F15.0 F high-6The station
KHEI11 UTC50 F35.1 F14.9 F high54.5 F5The station
K57C17 UTC67 F52.2 F14.8 F high66.4 F5The station
KSUW13 UTC54 F39.2 F14.8 F high53.5 F1The station
KD5710 UTC50 F35.6 F14.4 F high51.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KO2604 UTC77 F62.6 F14.4 F high-4Cannot be told
K1NW21 UTC74 F88.3 F14.3 F low85.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KMZJ00 UTC79 F93.2 F14.2 F low92.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KO2605 UTC75 F60.8 F14.2 F high-5Cannot be told
KMEH14 UTC43 F28.9 F14.1 F high-2Cannot be told
KM7509 UTC55 F41.0 F14.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KMRY19 UTC77 F63.0 F14.0 F high82.1 F1The station
KMYJ08 UTC55 F41.0 F14.0 F high49.5 F20The forecast, at this station
KPPF03 UTC66 F52.0 F14.0 F high58.8 F15The forecast, at this station
KD5703 UTC62 F48.2 F13.8 F high55.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KM7511 UTC53 F39.2 F13.8 F high-5Cannot be told
KO2608 UTC71 F57.2 F13.8 F high-2Cannot be told
KD5713 UTC51 F37.4 F13.6 F high47.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KMZJ01 UTC76 F89.6 F13.6 F low91.3 F1The forecast, at this station
K57C12 UTC46 F32.5 F13.5 F high47.4 F6The station
K41U14 UTC54 F40.6 F13.4 F high51.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KD5705 UTC58 F44.6 F13.4 F high51.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KD5711 UTC49 F35.6 F13.4 F high49.5 F5The forecast, at this station
K1A615 UTC64 F50.7 F13.3 F high63.1 F3The station
K1NW23 UTC71 F84.2 F13.2 F low85.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KD5702 UTC65 F51.8 F13.2 F high58.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KMZJ03 UTC71 F84.2 F13.2 F low86.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KSJX04 UTC47 F33.8 F13.2 F high36.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KEKS10 UTC56 F42.8 F13.2 F high41.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KAIA12 UTC51 F37.9 F13.1 F high52.9 F6The station
KLGU08 UTC62 F48.9 F13.1 F high64.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KMEH12 UTC44 F30.9 F13.1 F high-6Cannot be told
KTVL15 UTC51 F37.9 F13.1 F high45.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KAIZ09 UTC58 F45.0 F13.0 F high51.2 F21The forecast, at this station
KEKO08 UTC59 F72.0 F13.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KGCC03 UTC65 F52.0 F13.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KMEH11 UTC45 F32.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KMEH13 UTC43 F30.0 F13.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KMYJ11 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high48.5 F23The forecast, at this station
KMZJ02 UTC73 F86.0 F13.0 F low88.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KO2607 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KPPF02 UTC68 F55.0 F13.0 F high60.1 F14The forecast, at this station
PAKV16 UTC19 F32.0 F13.0 F low-10Cannot be told
KAIA08 UTC55 F42.1 F12.9 F high53.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KBHK10 UTC55 F42.1 F12.9 F high-4Cannot be told
KCDR13 UTC55 F42.1 F12.9 F high-1Cannot be told
KLBF13 UTC55 F42.1 F12.9 F high48.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KLGU12 UTC57 F44.1 F12.9 F high59.0 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW20 UTC74 F86.7 F12.7 F low85.5 F2The forecast, at this station
K9S210 UTC50 F37.4 F12.6 F high43.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KCAD11 UTC32 F44.6 F12.6 F low40.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KMVH06 UTC59 F46.4 F12.6 F high56.9 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW19 UTC73 F85.6 F12.6 F low84.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KSUW12 UTC51 F38.5 F12.5 F high52.2 F6The station
KCAD12 UTC34 F46.4 F12.4 F low41.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KGLY11 UTC57 F44.6 F12.4 F high49.2 F23The forecast, at this station
KWYS14 UTC39 F26.6 F12.4 F high-2Cannot be told
PALP21 UTC25 F37.4 F12.4 F low-3Cannot be told
KAXX14 UTC45 F32.7 F12.3 F high-2Cannot be told
KHSG04 UTC65 F52.7 F12.3 F high60.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KD5707 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high52.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KMKN17 UTC74 F86.2 F12.2 F low79.9 F11The forecast, at this station
KMYJ07 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high49.1 F19The forecast, at this station
KMZJ20 UTC81 F93.2 F12.2 F low92.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KSJX05 UTC46 F33.8 F12.2 F high35.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KSJX06 UTC46 F33.8 F12.2 F high35.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KEKS12 UTC55 F42.8 F12.2 F high41.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KHSG03 UTC68 F55.9 F12.1 F high60.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KMHK10 UTC61 F48.9 F12.1 F high55.0 F22The forecast, at this station
KPPF01 UTC70 F57.9 F12.1 F high63.7 F13The forecast, at this station
KCWN12 UTC59 F71.1 F12.1 F low52.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KMRY20 UTC79 F66.9 F12.1 F high82.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KMRY21 UTC79 F66.9 F12.1 F high85.3 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW18 UTC72 F84.0 F12.0 F low83.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KAAT11 UTC51 F39.0 F12.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KBHK08 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KBKE09 UTC51 F39.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KC2417 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KD5708 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high52.7 F2The station
KFYV13 UTC60 F48.0 F12.0 F high52.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KGCC02 UTC69 F57.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KHEI06 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high56.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KHEI09 UTC51 F39.0 F12.0 F high52.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KJDN08 UTC57 F45.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KLGU10 UTC60 F48.0 F12.0 F high63.0 F4The station
KMBG13 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KMEH08 UTC48 F36.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KMEH09 UTC46 F34.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KMRY22 UTC78 F66.0 F12.0 F high85.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KNSI17 UTC76 F88.0 F12.0 F low-5Cannot be told
KODX13 UTC58 F46.0 F12.0 F high51.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KPNA12 UTC44 F32.0 F12.0 F high41.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KRNM11 UTC73 F61.0 F12.0 F high71.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KSFO20 UTC85 F73.0 F12.0 F high86.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KSIY10 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high53.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KSIY12 UTC58 F46.0 F12.0 F high51.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KTRM09 UTC82 F70.0 F12.0 F high78.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KVTN13 UTC58 F46.0 F12.0 F high51.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KWVI01 UTC73 F61.0 F12.0 F high76.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKS14 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high38.4 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW17 UTC70 F81.9 F11.9 F low79.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KNSI20 UTC80 F91.9 F11.9 F low-8Cannot be told
K2P203 UTC50 F38.1 F11.9 F high48.0 F15The forecast, at this station
K41U13 UTC54 F42.1 F11.9 F high55.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KABR13 UTC54 F42.1 F11.9 F high44.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KAIA07 UTC56 F44.1 F11.9 F high56.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KAIA14 UTC56 F44.1 F11.9 F high54.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KBVO04 UTC65 F53.1 F11.9 F high57.2 F16The forecast, at this station
KCAG06 UTC54 F42.1 F11.9 F high51.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KHEI05 UTC56 F44.1 F11.9 F high54.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KHON13 UTC56 F44.1 F11.9 F high50.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KMEH10 UTC45 F33.1 F11.9 F high-4Cannot be told
KMRY18 UTC72 F60.1 F11.9 F high76.6 F12The station
KPPF05 UTC63 F51.1 F11.9 F high53.8 F17The forecast, at this station
K41U11 UTC55 F43.2 F11.8 F high57.0 F5The station
K46U11 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high42.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KBAM07 UTC58 F69.8 F11.8 F low-1Cannot be told
KMZJ18 UTC76 F87.8 F11.8 F low89.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KSQL20 UTC87 F75.2 F11.8 F high85.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KD5712 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high45.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KFOT12 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high-6Cannot be told
KGLY09 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high49.0 F21The forecast, at this station
KHCR11 UTC56 F44.4 F11.6 F high58.4 F5The station
KSJX01 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high40.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KSTK14 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high59.4 F2The station
KBAM06 UTC60 F71.6 F11.6 F low-6Cannot be told
KPAO20 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high86.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KAXX09 UTC44 F32.5 F11.5 F high-21Cannot be told
KSUW10 UTC50 F38.5 F11.5 F high50.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KSUW11 UTC50 F38.5 F11.5 F high51.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KMZJ16 UTC71 F82.4 F11.4 F low83.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KSQL19 UTC83 F71.6 F11.4 F high82.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KBCK12 UTC51 F39.6 F11.4 F high52.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KGLY12 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high48.1 F24The forecast, at this station
KGPH09 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high51.1 F21The forecast, at this station
KM7507 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high-1Cannot be told
KM7508 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high-2Cannot be told
KMYJ05 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high52.4 F17The forecast, at this station
KMYJ06 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high50.5 F18The forecast, at this station
KSJX03 UTC47 F35.6 F11.4 F high37.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KSZT14 UTC47 F35.6 F11.4 F high43.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KWYS13 UTC38 F26.6 F11.4 F high-1Cannot be told
K1AM05 UTC63 F74.3 F11.3 F low61.5 F5The forecast, at this station
K1AM15 UTC59 F47.7 F11.3 F high55.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KC2415 UTC51 F39.7 F11.3 F high-3Cannot be told
KCWN13 UTC59 F70.3 F11.3 F low52.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KHCR08 UTC59 F47.7 F11.3 F high60.6 F2The station
KMKN22 UTC81 F92.3 F11.3 F low85.9 F4The forecast, at this station
K1BN04 UTC57 F68.2 F11.2 F low56.6 F4The forecast, at this station
K41U09 UTC58 F46.8 F11.2 F high55.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KC2416 UTC56 F44.8 F11.2 F high-4Cannot be told
KDRP23 UTC73 F84.2 F11.2 F low82.4 F17The forecast, at this station
KGNG10 UTC55 F66.2 F11.2 F low55.3 F4The station
KGOO14 UTC64 F75.2 F11.2 F low70.0 F2Cannot be told
KGPH12 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high49.0 F24The forecast, at this station
KMYJ09 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high48.9 F21The forecast, at this station
KMYJ10 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high50.1 F22The forecast, at this station
KMZJ21 UTC82 F93.2 F11.2 F low93.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KU6813 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high62.3 F1The station
KEKS13 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high39.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KAXX11 UTC42 F30.9 F11.1 F high-23Cannot be told
KAXX15 UTC51 F39.9 F11.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KBKE14 UTC42 F30.9 F11.1 F high-2Cannot be told
KEKN16 UTC60 F48.9 F11.1 F high55.4 F4The forecast, at this station

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 6, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.32.52.62.5-0.250%242,726
Storm Station correction2.12.12.32.42.2-0.171%242,726
National Weather Service forecast1.92.02.02.12.0-1.0-6,987
NOAA GFS2.52.62.62.62.6+0.0-6,987
NOAA HRRR2.52.62.83.12.8-1.5-6,687
NOAA NAM2.93.03.03.03.0-0.1-6,687
ECMWF IFS2.42.32.32.52.4-1.1-2,236
ECMWF AIFS2.12.12.12.12.1-0.9-1,116
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.73.13.23.23.2-2.0-3,355
Storm Station lead2.02.02.12.22.0-1.062%6,987
NBM, at the 70 airports2.01.92.12.12.0-1.060%6,988
Correction, at the 70 airports1.81.71.92.01.9-0.475%6,988

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.42.32.42.4+0.867%242,216
Storm Station correction2.22.22.22.22.2+0.378%242,216
National Weather Service forecast1.92.02.12.22.1+0.6-6,961
NOAA GFS3.53.53.43.53.5-2.5-6,965
NOAA HRRR2.73.03.33.63.2-1.2-6,665
NOAA NAM5.55.45.24.85.2+4.8-6,665
ECMWF IFS2.72.93.03.12.9+1.2-2,232
ECMWF AIFS2.12.22.32.42.2-0.2-1,116
NOAA GFS with HRRR3.43.84.24.34.1-2.8-3,336
Storm Station lead1.92.02.02.02.0+0.776%6,965
NBM, at the 70 airports1.92.02.02.02.0+0.775%6,966
Correction, at the 70 airports2.02.02.02.02.0+0.578%6,966

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.52.52.52.5+0.449%242,533
Storm Station correction2.42.42.42.42.4+0.170%242,533
National Weather Service forecast2.42.42.42.52.4+0.1-6,961
NOAA GFS2.62.72.72.72.7-0.2-6,961
NOAA HRRR2.62.62.62.82.7-0.9-6,661
NOAA NAM2.52.62.62.62.6-0.5-6,661
ECMWF IFS2.82.82.92.92.8-1.2-2,224
ECMWF AIFS2.72.62.72.72.7-0.8-1,108
NOAA GFS with HRRR3.03.02.92.82.9-0.9-3,348
Storm Station lead2.42.42.52.42.4+0.2-6,961
NBM, at the 70 airports2.42.42.52.52.4+0.353%6,962
Correction, at the 70 airports2.32.42.42.42.4-0.371%6,962

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)27.427.928.328.728.1-20.745%58,810
Storm Station correction21.822.222.522.622.3-8.675%58,810
National Weather Service forecast18.919.318.919.019.0-15.4-3,535
NOAA GFS23.924.823.724.124.1-8.4-3,535
NOAA HRRR27.325.426.526.826.5-9.6-3,235
NOAA NAM24.823.424.322.623.7-13.3-3,235
ECMWF IFS21.522.522.422.922.3-12.9-1,140
ECMWF AIFS17.418.518.618.118.1-11.2-608
NOAA GFS with HRRR26.429.527.726.027.0-5.7-1,590
Storm Station lead19.019.319.918.919.3-16.7-3,535
NBM, at the 70 airports19.019.019.919.619.4-16.845%3,546
Correction, at the 70 airports12.812.813.213.513.1-1.981%3,546

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0150.0150.0160.0160.340.260.09
NOAA GFS with HRRR0.0100.0090.0090.010-0.05-0.00
Storm Station lead0.0090.0090.0100.0120.450.330.17
NBM, at the 70 airports0.0090.0090.0110.0100.470.320.15

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
346
Where snow fell or was forecast
1
Mean miss, depth
1.0 in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in0100.00
3 in000-
6 in000-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.