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Hurricane Trudy

Hurricane Trudy has 90 mph winds and a pressure of 978 mb, centred near 13.7N 101.7W, moving toward the north-northwest at 6 mph, as of October 15, 21:00 UTC. Forecast to reach 145 mph, category 4 hurricane, by October 17, 06:00 UTC.

Chart of Hurricane Trudy: the track taken, the forecast track and the reach of its winds now120W115W110W105W100W95W90W85W5N10N15N20N25NBay of CampecheHurricane Trudy: tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowHurricane Trudy: winds of 58 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowHurricane Trudy: hurricane force winds, 74 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowOctober 13, 12:00 UTC, 9.5N 96.1WOctober 13, 15:00 UTC, 9.8N 96.5W, 35 mphOctober 13, 18:00 UTC, 10.3N 95.9WOctober 13, 21:00 UTC, 10.6N 96.5W, 40 mphOctober 14, 00:00 UTC, 11.0N 96.7WOctober 14, 03:00 UTC, 11.2N 97.0W, 45 mphOctober 14, 06:00 UTC, 10.8N 98.6WOctober 14, 09:00 UTC, 11.1N 99.0W, 50 mphOctober 14, 12:00 UTC, 11.3N 99.2WOctober 14, 15:00 UTC, 11.5N 99.5W, 60 mphOctober 14, 18:00 UTC, 11.7N 99.7WOctober 14, 21:00 UTC, 11.9N 100.0W, 65 mphOctober 15, 00:00 UTC, 12.1N 100.5WOctober 15, 03:00 UTC, 12.4N 100.8W, 70 mphOctober 15, 06:00 UTC, 12.6N 101.2WOctober 15, 09:00 UTC, 12.9N 101.6W, 75 mphOctober 15, 12:00 UTC, 12.9N 101.6WOctober 15, 15:00 UTC, 13.1N 101.6W, 90 mphOctober 15, 18:00 UTC, 13.5N 101.6WOctober 15, 21:00 UTC, 13.7N 101.7W, 90 mphForecast for October 16, 06:00 UTC: 14.3N 101.9W, 110 mph, category 2 hurricaneFri 06:00, 110 mphForecast for October 16, 18:00 UTC: 15.2N 102.2W, 130 mph, category 4 hurricaneFri 18:00, 130 mphForecast for October 17, 06:00 UTC: 16.3N 102.9W, 145 mph, category 4 hurricaneSat 06:00, 145 mphForecast for October 17, 18:00 UTC: 17.5N 103.9W, 140 mph, category 4 hurricaneSat 18:00, 140 mphForecast for October 18, 06:00 UTC: 18.8N 104.9W, 120 mph, category 3 hurricaneSun 06:00, 120 mphForecast for October 18, 18:00 UTC: 19.8N 105.8W, 105 mph, category 2 hurricaneSun 18:00, 105 mphForecast for October 19, 18:00 UTC: 20.5N 107.4W, 65 mph, tropical stormMon 18:00, 65 mphForecast for October 20, 18:00 UTC: 20.5N 108.4W, 60 mph, tropical stormTrudy
The track taken from its advisories, the forecast track to five days and the reach of its winds now, from advisory 10 of October 15, 21:00 UTC. Times are UTC.
Chart of Hurricane Trudy: the track taken, the forecast track and the reach of its winds now110W105W100W95W5N10N15N20N25NBay of CampecheHurricane Trudy: tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowHurricane Trudy: winds of 58 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowHurricane Trudy: hurricane force winds, 74 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowOctober 13, 12:00 UTC, 9.5N 96.1WOctober 13, 15:00 UTC, 9.8N 96.5W, 35 mphOctober 13, 18:00 UTC, 10.3N 95.9WOctober 13, 21:00 UTC, 10.6N 96.5W, 40 mphOctober 14, 00:00 UTC, 11.0N 96.7WOctober 14, 03:00 UTC, 11.2N 97.0W, 45 mphOctober 14, 06:00 UTC, 10.8N 98.6WOctober 14, 09:00 UTC, 11.1N 99.0W, 50 mphOctober 14, 12:00 UTC, 11.3N 99.2WOctober 14, 15:00 UTC, 11.5N 99.5W, 60 mphOctober 14, 18:00 UTC, 11.7N 99.7WOctober 14, 21:00 UTC, 11.9N 100.0W, 65 mphOctober 15, 00:00 UTC, 12.1N 100.5WOctober 15, 03:00 UTC, 12.4N 100.8W, 70 mphOctober 15, 06:00 UTC, 12.6N 101.2WOctober 15, 09:00 UTC, 12.9N 101.6W, 75 mphOctober 15, 12:00 UTC, 12.9N 101.6WOctober 15, 15:00 UTC, 13.1N 101.6W, 90 mphOctober 15, 18:00 UTC, 13.5N 101.6WOctober 15, 21:00 UTC, 13.7N 101.7W, 90 mphForecast for October 16, 06:00 UTC: 14.3N 101.9W, 110 mph, category 2 hurricaneFri 06:00, 110 mphForecast for October 16, 18:00 UTC: 15.2N 102.2W, 130 mph, category 4 hurricaneFri 18:00, 130 mphForecast for October 17, 06:00 UTC: 16.3N 102.9W, 145 mph, category 4 hurricaneSat 06:00, 145 mphForecast for October 17, 18:00 UTC: 17.5N 103.9W, 140 mph, category 4 hurricaneSat 18:00, 140 mphForecast for October 18, 06:00 UTC: 18.8N 104.9W, 120 mph, category 3 hurricaneSun 06:00, 120 mphForecast for October 18, 18:00 UTC: 19.8N 105.8W, 105 mph, category 2 hurricaneSun 18:00, 105 mphForecast for October 19, 18:00 UTC: 20.5N 107.4W, 65 mph, tropical stormMon 18:00, 65 mphForecast for October 20, 18:00 UTC: 20.5N 108.4W, 60 mph, tropical stormTrudy
The track taken from its advisories, the forecast track to five days and the reach of its winds now, from advisory 10 of October 15, 21:00 UTC. Times are UTC.
  • Depression, under 39 mph
  • Tropical storm, 39 to 73 mph
  • Category 1, 74 to 95
  • Category 2, 96 to 110
  • Category 3, 111 to 129
  • Category 4, 130 to 156
  • Category 5, 157 or more
  • Track taken
  • Forecast track
  • Tropical storm force winds now
  • Hurricane force winds now
Strength
Category 1 hurricane
Winds
90 mph, gusts 115 mph
Pressure
978 mb, 28.88 inHg
Moving
Toward the north-northwest at 6 mph
Centre
13.7N 101.7W, within 25 miles
Tropical storm force winds reach
105 miles from the centre
Hurricane force winds reach
25 miles from the centre
Advisory
Number 10, October 15, 21:00 UTC
Next advisory
October 16, 03:00 UTC

Watches and warnings

  • A Hurricane Watch is in effect for

    • The coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula.

  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for

    • The coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo.

In the hurricane center's words, from its public advisory of October 15, 23:47 UTC. Every watch and warning in force, county by county: Severe Alerts.

The forecast

The forecast of advisory 10, October 15, 21:00 UTC. Winds are the strongest sustained, in mph.
ValidCentreWindsStrengthNote
October 16, 06:00 UTC14.3N 101.9W110 mphCategory 2 hurricane-
October 16, 18:00 UTC15.2N 102.2W130 mphCategory 4 hurricane-
October 17, 06:00 UTC16.3N 102.9W145 mphCategory 4 hurricane-
October 17, 18:00 UTC17.5N 103.9W140 mphCategory 4 hurricane-
October 18, 06:00 UTC18.8N 104.9W120 mphCategory 3 hurricane-
October 18, 18:00 UTC19.8N 105.8W105 mphCategory 2 hurricane-
October 19, 18:00 UTC20.5N 107.4W65 mphTropical stormOutlook
October 20, 18:00 UTC20.5N 108.4W60 mphTropical stormOutlook

The forecast track is the most likely path of the centre. A storm's effects reach far beyond its centre, and the centre itself stays inside the track only about two times in three.

Where it went

Chart of Hurricane Trudy: the track it took, every place its advisories gave it coloured by its strength then, and each of the 10 official forecasts drawn faint from where it started120W115W110W105W100W95W90W85W5N10N15N20N25NOctober 13Trudy
The track Hurricane Trudy took, from its advisories, and each official forecast drawn faint from where it started. Point to a place for its time and winds.
Chart of Hurricane Trudy: the track it took, every place its advisories gave it coloured by its strength then, and each of the 10 official forecasts drawn faint from where it started110W105W100W95W5N10N15N20N25NOctober 13Trudy
The track Hurricane Trudy took, from its advisories, and each official forecast drawn faint from where it started. Point to a place for its time and winds.
  • Depression, under 39 mph
  • Tropical storm, 39 to 73 mph
  • Category 1, 74 to 95
  • Category 2, 96 to 110
  • Category 3, 111 to 129
  • Category 4, 130 to 156
  • Category 5, 157 or more
  • Track taken
  • Forecast track
  • Tropical storm force winds now
  • Hurricane force winds now
Landfall
-
Its centre crossed
-
Tropical storm force winds reached
-
Hurricane force winds reached
-
Strongest winds
90 mph, category 1, October 15, 15:00 UTC
Lowest pressure
975 mb, 28.79 inHg
Days
October 13 to 15, 2026
As a tropical or subtropical cyclone
2.5 days
Traveled
551 miles
Accumulated cyclone energy
2.7
Basin
Eastern Pacific
Advisories
11

Its strength, day by day

The strongest winds of Hurricane Trudy, in mph, at each place its advisories gave it, October 13 to 15, 2026, with the winds where each category begins020406080100120140mphOctober 14October 15StormCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4
The strongest winds of Hurricane Trudy, in mph, at each place its advisories gave it, October 13 to 15, 2026, with the winds where each category begins04080120160mphOctober 14October 15StormCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
The lowest pressure at the centre of Hurricane Trudy, in millibars, at each of its advisories, October 13 to 15, 2026. Lower is stronger.9709809901,0001,010mbOctober 14October 15
The lowest pressure at the centre of Hurricane Trudy, in millibars, at each of its advisories, October 13 to 15, 2026. Lower is stronger.9609801,0001,020mbOctober 14October 15

How the forecasts did

Every forecast of Hurricane Trudy scored against where it went: the hurricane center's official forecast, Storm Station's own, and NOAA's models, each by its own name.

Track error of every forecast of Hurricane Trudy by hours ahead, in miles: the mean distance from where each forecast put the centre to where the storm was. Lower is closer.050100150miles12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 hHAFS-AGEFSHAFS-BGFSAIGFSStorm StationOfficial forecast
Track error of every forecast of Hurricane Trudy by hours ahead, in miles: the mean distance from where each forecast put the centre to where the storm was. Lower is closer.050100150miles12 h36 h60 h120 hHAFS-AGEFSHAFS-BGFSAIGFSStorm StationOfficial forecast
Track error, miles
Forecast12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Official forecast408296444342----
Storm Station367465653451----
GFS367465753651----
GEFS407535823921----
AIGFS317275423491----
HAFS-A5077051013941----
HAFS-B407725973741----

Track error: how far each forecast put the centre from where the storm was, in miles, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.

Against the official forecast, miles
Forecast12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Storm Station36 / 35746 / 33565 / 56345 / 541----
GFS36 / 35746 / 33575 / 56365 / 541----
GEFS40 / 35753 / 33582 / 56392 / 541----
AIGFS31 / 35727 / 33542 / 56349 / 541----
HAFS-A50 / 35770 / 335101 / 56394 / 541----
HAFS-B40 / 35772 / 33597 / 56374 / 541----

On the same forecasts as the official one: each one's track error, then the official forecast's for the same storm, hour and hours ahead, in miles; the number of forecasts beneath.

Intensity error, mph
Forecast12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Official forecast384684102----
Storm Station137165283371----
GFS137195263231----
GEFS137245363411----
AIGFS127275383531----
HAFS-A117165273371----
HAFS-B167175293371----

Intensity error: how far each forecast's strongest winds were from the storm's, in mph, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.

How each is scored, as the hurricane center scores its own: against where its advisories put the storm at each six hours, and only while the storm was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Each model is taken from its run six hours before, carried to the hour and set on the storm's centre and winds then, as the hurricane center does with its own early models, so every forecast here was there when the official one was issued. Storm Station's is made from those models, never from the official forecast.

The advisories

Every forecast advisory, newest first
AdvisoryIssuedAsCentreWindsPressureMoving
10October 15, 21:00 UTCHurricane Trudy13.7N 101.7W90 mph978 mbToward the north-northwest at 6 mph
9October 15, 15:00 UTCHurricane Trudy13.1N 101.6W90 mph975 mbToward the north-northwest at 6 mph
8October 15, 09:00 UTCHurricane Trudy12.9N 101.6W75 mph989 mbToward the northwest at 9 mph
7October 15, 03:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy12.4N 100.8W70 mph994 mbToward the northwest at 8 mph
6October 14, 21:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy11.9N 100.0W65 mph997 mbToward the west-northwest at 9 mph
5October 14, 15:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy11.5N 99.5W60 mph998 mbToward the west-northwest at 13 mph
4October 14, 09:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy11.1N 99.0W50 mph1002 mbToward the west-northwest at 10 mph
3...CORRECTEDOctober 14, 03:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy11.2N 97.0W45 mph1004 mbToward the northwest at 10 mph
3October 14, 03:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy11.2N 97.0W45 mph1004 mbToward the northwest at 10 mph
2October 13, 21:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy10.6N 96.5W40 mph1005 mbToward the northwest at 8 mph
1October 13, 15:00 UTCTropical Depression Twenty-One-E9.8N 96.5W35 mph1006 mbToward the northwest at 10 mph
Each public advisory's headline, newest first
AdvisoryIssuedHeadline
10AOctober 15, 23:47 UTCTrudy Expected To Rapidly Intensify
10October 15, 20:49 UTCTrudy Expected To Rapidly Intensify
9AOctober 15, 17:39 UTCHurricane Hunter Aircraft Investigating Trudy
9October 15, 14:57 UTCTrudy Rapidly Intensifying
7October 15, 02:34 UTCTrudy Forecast To Rapidly Strengthen Over The Next Day Or So
6October 14, 20:45 UTCTrudy Continues To Strengthen
5October 14, 14:55 UTCTrudy Expected To Become A Hurricane Tonight

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