Live/Severe Alerts/Tropical Storm Simon
Tropical Storm Simon
Tropical Storm Simon has 50 mph winds and a pressure of 999 mb, centred near 19.3N 108.2W, moving toward the northwest at 1 mph, as of October 15, 21:00 UTC.
- Depression, under 39 mph
- Tropical storm, 39 to 73 mph
- Category 1, 74 to 95
- Category 2, 96 to 110
- Category 3, 111 to 129
- Category 4, 130 to 156
- Category 5, 157 or more
- Track taken
- Forecast track
- Tropical storm force winds now
- Hurricane force winds now
- Strength
- Tropical storm
- Winds
- 50 mph, gusts 65 mph
- Pressure
- 999 mb, 29.50 inHg
- Moving
- Toward the northwest at 1 mph
- Centre
- 19.3N 108.2W, within 25 miles
- Tropical storm force winds reach
- 45 miles from the centre
- Hurricane force winds reach
- -
- Advisory
- Number 34, October 15, 21:00 UTC
- Next advisory
- October 16, 03:00 UTC
Watches and warnings
The newest public advisory names no watch or warning in force for this storm.
The forecast
| Valid | Centre | Winds | Strength | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16, 06:00 UTC | 19.8N 108.7W | 45 mph | Tropical storm | - |
| October 16, 18:00 UTC | 20.8N 110.0W | 40 mph | Tropical storm | - |
| October 17, 06:00 UTC | 22.0N 111.9W | 35 mph | Tropical depression | - |
| October 17, 18:00 UTC | 23.1N 113.6W | 30 mph | Tropical depression | Post-Trop, Remnt Low |
| October 18, 06:00 UTC | 24.5N 115.0W | 25 mph | Tropical depression | Post-Trop, Remnt Low |
| October 18, 18:00 UTC | Dissipated | |||
The forecast track is the most likely path of the centre. A storm's effects reach far beyond its centre, and the centre itself stays inside the track only about two times in three.
Where it went
- Depression, under 39 mph
- Tropical storm, 39 to 73 mph
- Category 1, 74 to 95
- Category 2, 96 to 110
- Category 3, 111 to 129
- Category 4, 130 to 156
- Category 5, 157 or more
- Track taken
- Forecast track
- Tropical storm force winds now
- Hurricane force winds now
- Landfall
- -
- Its centre crossed
- -
- Tropical storm force winds reached
- Mexico October 10 to 12
- Hurricane force winds reached
- -
Read from the hurricane center's advisories against the coast the chart draws. A landfall is where the line between two places the advisories gave crosses the coast, its time and winds read between theirs. Tropical storm force winds are 39 mph or more, hurricane force 74 mph or more, as far as each advisory gave them reaching.
- Strongest winds
- 155 mph, category 4, October 11, 03:00 UTC
- Lowest pressure
- 928 mb, 27.40 inHg
- Days
- October 7 to 15, 2026
- As a tropical or subtropical cyclone
- 8.5 days
- Traveled
- 926 miles
- Accumulated cyclone energy
- 26.3
- Basin
- Eastern Pacific
- Advisories
- 34
Its strength, day by day
How the forecasts did
Every forecast of Hurricane Simon scored against where it went: the hurricane center's official forecast, Storm Station's own, and NOAA's models, each by its own name.
| Forecast | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official forecast | 2332 | 3830 | 6228 | 10026 | 15324 | 17316 | 21312 | 2827 |
| Storm Station | 3120 | 5318 | 6816 | 9214 | 13012 | 2059 | 1685 | 3591 |
| GFS | 3523 | 5121 | 7219 | 10216 | 11712 | 1788 | 2456 | 4863 |
| GEFS | 3023 | 4221 | 5317 | 6511 | 859 | 1025 | - | - |
| AIGFS | 2923 | 6021 | 9619 | 13114 | 19110 | 2424 | 2432 | - |
| HAFS-A | 3620 | 5818 | 8216 | 11914 | 16811 | 2839 | 3695 | 1,2031 |
| HAFS-B | 4123 | 7021 | 9619 | 12117 | 18814 | 29910 | 1674 | - |
Track error: how far each forecast put the centre from where the storm was, in miles, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.
| Forecast | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storm Station | 31 / 2020 | 53 / 4118 | 68 / 7616 | 92 / 13114 | 130 / 21112 | 278 / 2866 | 153 / 3522 | - |
| GFS | 35 / 2023 | 51 / 3821 | 72 / 7019 | 102 / 12616 | 117 / 20012 | 115 / 2813 | 127 / 3522 | - |
| GEFS | 30 / 2023 | 42 / 3821 | 53 / 7017 | 65 / 11611 | 85 / 1929 | 80 / 2713 | - | - |
| AIGFS | 29 / 2023 | 60 / 3821 | 96 / 7019 | 131 / 12014 | 191 / 19810 | 242 / 2894 | 243 / 3522 | - |
| HAFS-A | 36 / 2020 | 58 / 4118 | 82 / 7616 | 119 / 13114 | 168 / 21211 | 317 / 2866 | 232 / 3522 | - |
| HAFS-B | 41 / 2023 | 70 / 3821 | 96 / 7019 | 121 / 12517 | 188 / 20314 | 375 / 2866 | 257 / 3522 | - |
On the same forecasts as the official one: each one's track error, then the official forecast's for the same storm, hour and hours ahead, in miles; the number of forecasts beneath.
| Forecast | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official forecast | 832 | 1230 | 1628 | 2426 | 3924 | 3616 | 3912 | 377 |
| Storm Station | 3020 | 3718 | 3716 | 3114 | 3212 | 289 | 265 | 221 |
| GFS | 2623 | 3421 | 4019 | 3816 | 3112 | 378 | 466 | 133 |
| GEFS | 1823 | 2621 | 2517 | 2911 | 279 | 285 | - | - |
| AIGFS | 1623 | 2621 | 3019 | 3214 | 3110 | 204 | 322 | - |
| HAFS-A | 2720 | 3618 | 3816 | 3114 | 2511 | 269 | 295 | 221 |
| HAFS-B | 3123 | 4621 | 4119 | 4017 | 4514 | 4010 | 174 | - |
Intensity error: how far each forecast's strongest winds were from the storm's, in mph, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.
How each is scored, as the hurricane center scores its own: against where its advisories put the storm at each six hours, and only while the storm was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Each model is taken from its run six hours before, carried to the hour and set on the storm's centre and winds then, as the hurricane center does with its own early models, so every forecast here was there when the official one was issued. Storm Station's is made from those models, never from the official forecast.
The advisories
| Advisory | Issued | As | Centre | Winds | Pressure | Moving |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | October 15, 21:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Simon | 19.3N 108.2W | 50 mph | 999 mb | Toward the northwest at 1 mph |
| 33 | October 15, 15:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Simon | 19.2N 108.1W | 60 mph | 996 mb | Toward the north at 0 mph |
| 32 | October 15, 09:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Simon | 19.2N 108.5W | 60 mph | 996 mb | Toward the north at 0 mph |
| 31 | October 15, 03:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Simon | 19.1N 108.6W | 65 mph | 991 mb | Toward the southwest at 5 mph |
| 30 | October 14, 21:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 19.3N 108.3W | 75 mph | 989 mb | Toward the southwest at 3 mph |
| 29 | October 14, 15:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 19.7N 108.1W | 90 mph | 975 mb | Toward the southwest at 2 mph |
| 28 | October 14, 09:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 19.8N 107.9W | 105 mph | 969 mb | Toward the southwest at 3 mph |
| 27 | October 14, 03:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 20.1N 107.6W | 110 mph | 965 mb | Toward the west at 2 mph |
| 26 | October 13, 21:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 20.2N 107.5W | 90 mph | 977 mb | Toward the west at 2 mph |
| 25 | October 13, 15:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 20.3N 107.3W | 90 mph | 977 mb | Toward the west at 2 mph |
| 24 | October 13, 09:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 20.6N 107.2W | 90 mph | 977 mb | Toward the northwest at 3 mph |
| 23 | October 13, 03:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 20.4N 107.0W | 100 mph | 969 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 3 mph |
| 22 | October 12, 21:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 20.2N 106.8W | 100 mph | 969 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 3 mph |
| 21 | October 12, 15:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 20.1N 106.5W | 110 mph | 962 mb | Toward the northwest at 3 mph |
| 20 | October 12, 09:00 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon | 20.0N 106.3W | 115 mph | 958 mb | Toward the northwest at 5 mph |
| 19 | October 12, 03:00 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon | 19.8N 106.0W | 120 mph | 956 mb | Toward the northwest at 5 mph |
| 18 | October 11, 21:00 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon | 19.6N 105.8W | 130 mph | 947 mb | Toward the north-northwest at 6 mph |
| 17 | October 11, 15:00 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon | 19.2N 105.3W | 145 mph | 937 mb | Toward the north-northwest at 7 mph |
| 16 | October 11, 09:00 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon | 18.7N 105.2W | 155 mph | 930 mb | Toward the north-northwest at 6 mph |
| 15 | October 11, 03:00 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon | 18.2N 104.8W | 155 mph | 928 mb | Toward the north at 5 mph |
| 14 | October 10, 21:00 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon | 17.6N 104.8W | 150 mph | 932 mb | Toward the north at 5 mph |
| 13 | October 10, 15:00 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon | 17.4N 104.8W | 150 mph | 938 mb | Toward the north at 3 mph |
| 12 | October 10, 09:00 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon | 17.2N 104.6W | 145 mph | 942 mb | Toward the north at 5 mph |
| 11 | October 10, 03:00 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon | 16.8N 104.6W | 120 mph | 952 mb | Toward the north at 7 mph |
| 10 | October 9, 21:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 16.2N 104.7W | 105 mph | 966 mb | Toward the northwest at 2 mph |
| 9 | October 9, 15:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 16.0N 104.7W | 100 mph | 973 mb | Toward the northwest at 3 mph |
| 8 | October 9, 09:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 15.8N 104.5W | 90 mph | 978 mb | Toward the northwest at 5 mph |
| 7 | October 9, 03:00 UTC | Hurricane Simon | 15.6N 104.6W | 75 mph | 985 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 6 mph |
| 6 | October 8, 21:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Simon | 15.7N 103.9W | 70 mph | 992 mb | Toward the west at 6 mph |
| 5 | October 8, 15:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Simon | 15.4N 103.3W | 65 mph | 995 mb | Toward the west at 5 mph |
| 4 | October 8, 09:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Simon | 15.4N 103.1W | 50 mph | 1000 mb | Toward the west at 7 mph |
| 3 | October 8, 03:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Simon | 15.6N 102.5W | 50 mph | 1002 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 7 mph |
| 2 | October 7, 21:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Simon | 15.5N 101.6W | 40 mph | 1004 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 8 mph |
| 1 | October 7, 15:00 UTC | Tropical Depression Twenty-E | 14.1N 100.9W | 35 mph | 1006 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 8 mph |
| Advisory | Issued | Headline |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | October 15, 20:41 UTC | Small Simon Slowly Weakening As It Drifts Northwestward |
| 32 | October 15, 08:39 UTC | Simon Nearly Stationary |
| 31 | October 15, 02:31 UTC | Compact Simon Weakens To A Tropical Storm |
| 29 | October 14, 14:47 UTC | Simon Weakens While Drifting Southwestward |
| 28A | October 14, 11:30 UTC | Simon Drifting West-Southwestward |
| 28 | October 14, 08:45 UTC | Compact Simon Drifting Southwestward |
| 27A | October 14, 05:37 UTC | Small Simon Drifting Southwestward |
| 25A | October 13, 17:34 UTC | Simon Now Drifting South Of Due West |
| 25 | October 13, 14:54 UTC | Small Simon Forecast To Move Slowly Over The Next Day Or Two |
| 24A | October 13, 11:37 UTC | Small Hurricane Simon Still Moving Very Slowly |
| 24 | October 13, 08:41 UTC | Simon Moving Slowly Northwestward |
| 23A | October 13, 05:37 UTC | Simon Moving Slowly Northwestward |
| 23 | October 13, 02:53 UTC | Simon Moving Slowly To The West-Northwest |
| 22A | October 12, 23:33 UTC | Simon Expected To Turn To The Northwest This Evening |
| 22 | October 12, 20:51 UTC | Simon Moving Slowly West-Northwestward With 100 Mph Winds |
| 21A | October 12, 17:37 UTC | Simon Drifting Westward As A Category 2 Hurricane |
| 21 | October 12, 14:58 UTC | Simon Continues Moving Slowly Northwestward Offshore Of Mexico |
| 20A | October 12, 11:41 UTC | Simon Crawling Northwest Just Offshore Of Mexico |
| 20 | October 12, 08:53 UTC | Simon Drifting Northwest |
| 19 | October 12, 02:48 UTC | Simon Moving Slowly Just Offshore Of West-Central Mexico |
| 18A | October 11, 23:53 UTC | Major Hurricane Simon Paralleling West-Central Mexico |
| 18 | October 11, 20:54 UTC | New Hurricane Watches Issued Farther Up The Mexican Coast |
| 16A | October 11, 11:44 UTC | Simon Moving North-Northwest |
| 14A | October 10, 23:35 UTC | Category 4 Simon Drifting Northward Toward West-Central Mexico |
| 14 | October 10, 20:57 UTC | Category 4 Simon Moving Slowly Northward |
| 13 | October 10, 14:54 UTC | Simon A Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane With 150-Mph Winds |
| 12A | October 10, 11:53 UTC | Simon Continues To Rapidly Intensify With 150-Mph Winds |
| 12 | October 10, 08:36 UTC | Simon Still Quickly Intensifying |
| 11A | October 10, 05:46 UTC | Simon Becomes A Category 4 Hurricane |
| 11 | October 10, 02:36 UTC | Simon A Major Hurricane |
| 10A | October 9, 23:47 UTC | Simon Strengthening |
| 10 | October 9, 20:45 UTC | Simon Continues To Strengthen |
| 9A | October 9, 17:40 UTC | Preparations Should Be Rushed To Completion Today |
| 9 | October 9, 14:46 UTC | Preparations Should Be Rushed To Completion Today |
| 8 | October 9, 08:45 UTC | Simon Rapidly Intensifying |
| 7A | October 9, 05:51 UTC | Simon Slowing Down And Moving Northwestward |
| 7 | October 9, 02:38 UTC | Simon Becomes A Hurricane |
| 6A | October 8, 23:32 UTC | Simon Nearing Hurricane Strength |
| 6 | October 8, 20:32 UTC | Simon Almost A Hurricane |
| 5A | October 8, 17:35 UTC | Outer Bands Bringing Heavy Rains To Southwestern Mexico |
| 5 | October 8, 14:35 UTC | Hurricane Watch Issued For A Portion Of West-Central Mexico |
| 4A | October 8, 11:35 UTC | Forecast To Rapidly Intensify |
| 4 | October 8, 09:29 UTC | Simon Expected To Quickly Strengthen Soon |
| 3 | October 8, 02:33 UTC | Simon Forecast To Rapidly Intensify |
| 2 | October 7, 20:39 UTC | Depression Becomes Tropical Storm Simon |
| 1 | October 7, 14:57 UTC | New Tropical Depression Forms South Of Mexico |