Live/Severe Alerts/2026 season/Hurricane Rachel
Hurricane Rachel
Hurricane Rachel, October 3 to 11, 2026, Eastern Pacific: its strongest winds of 105 mph, category 2, on October 4, its lowest pressure 965 mb; it traveled 1,955 miles.
Where it went
- Depression, under 39 mph
- Tropical storm, 39 to 73 mph
- Category 1, 74 to 95
- Category 2, 96 to 110
- Category 3, 111 to 129
- Category 4, 130 to 156
- Category 5, 157 or more
- Track taken
- Forecast track
- Tropical storm force winds now
- Hurricane force winds now
- Landfall
- -
- Its centre crossed
- Mexico October 11
California October 11
Nevada October 11
Arizona October 11 - Tropical storm force winds reached
- Mexico October 3 to 11
California October 11
Arizona October 11
Nevada October 11 - Hurricane force winds reached
- -
Read from the hurricane center's advisories against the coast the chart draws. A landfall is where the line between two places the advisories gave crosses the coast, its time and winds read between theirs. Tropical storm force winds are 39 mph or more, hurricane force 74 mph or more, as far as each advisory gave them reaching.
- Strongest winds
- 105 mph, category 2, October 4, 15:00 UTC
- Lowest pressure
- 965 mb, 28.50 inHg
- Days
- October 3 to 11, 2026
- As a tropical or subtropical cyclone
- 7.3 days
- Traveled
- 1,955 miles
- Accumulated cyclone energy
- 13.1
- Basin
- Eastern Pacific
- Advisories
- 32
Its strength, day by day
How the forecasts did
Every forecast of Hurricane Rachel scored against where it went: the hurricane center's official forecast, Storm Station's own, and NOAA's models, each by its own name.
| Forecast | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official forecast | 1627 | 1825 | 2023 | 2421 | 2919 | 5117 | 11113 | 2129 |
| GFS | 303 | 281 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GEFS | 383 | 441 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AIGFS | 413 | 321 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-A | 483 | 431 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-B | 493 | 761 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Track error: how far each forecast put the centre from where the storm was, in miles, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.
| Forecast | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFS | 30 / 413 | 28 / 701 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GEFS | 38 / 413 | 44 / 701 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AIGFS | 41 / 413 | 32 / 701 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-A | 48 / 413 | 43 / 701 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-B | 49 / 413 | 76 / 701 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
On the same forecasts as the official one: each one's track error, then the official forecast's for the same storm, hour and hours ahead, in miles; the number of forecasts beneath.
| Forecast | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official forecast | 527 | 525 | 523 | 521 | 419 | 517 | 713 | 79 |
| GFS | 33 | 21 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GEFS | 33 | 21 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AIGFS | 43 | 11 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-A | 73 | 161 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-B | 33 | 101 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Intensity error: how far each forecast's strongest winds were from the storm's, in mph, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.
How each is scored, as the hurricane center scores its own: against where its advisories put the storm at each six hours, and only while the storm was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Each model is taken from its run six hours before, carried to the hour and set on the storm's centre and winds then, as the hurricane center does with its own early models, so every forecast here was there when the official one was issued. Storm Station's is made from those models, never from the official forecast.
The advisories
| Advisory | Issued | As | Centre | Winds | Pressure | Moving |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | October 11, 15:00 UTC | Remnants of Rachel | 35.8N 114.6W | 35 mph | 994 mb | Toward the north-northeast at 29 mph |
| 57 | October 11, 09:00 UTC | Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel | 32.9N 116.1W | 50 mph | 990 mb | Toward the north at 25 mph |
| 56 | October 11, 03:00 UTC | Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel | 30.0N 116.5W | 60 mph | 987 mb | Toward the north-northeast at 36 mph |
| 55 | October 10, 21:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 27.0N 118.3W | 65 mph | 989 mb | Toward the north-northeast at 30 mph |
| 54 | October 10, 15:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 25.5N 119.6W | 60 mph | 992 mb | Toward the northeast at 22 mph |
| 53 | October 10, 09:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 24.2N 121.4W | 60 mph | 992 mb | Toward the northeast at 22 mph |
| 52 | October 10, 03:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 23.8N 123.3W | 45 mph | 995 mb | Toward the northeast at 9 mph |
| 51 | October 9, 21:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 23.3N 124.0W | 45 mph | 995 mb | Toward the northeast at 7 mph |
| 50 | October 9, 15:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 22.8N 124.6W | 50 mph | 994 mb | Toward the northeast at 5 mph |
| 49 | October 9, 09:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 22.7N 124.9W | 50 mph | 994 mb | Toward the northeast at 3 mph |
| 48 | October 9, 03:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 22.6N 125.5W | 60 mph | 990 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 6 mph |
| 47 | October 8, 21:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 22.4N 124.6W | 65 mph | 987 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 3 mph |
| 46 | October 8, 15:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 22.1N 124.2W | 70 mph | 985 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 7 mph |
| 45 | October 8, 09:00 UTC | Tropical Storm Rachel | 21.8N 123.9W | 70 mph | 985 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 8 mph |
| 44 | October 8, 03:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 21.4N 122.9W | 75 mph | 982 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 7 mph |
| 43 | October 7, 21:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 21.2N 122.3W | 80 mph | 979 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 7 mph |
| 42 | October 7, 15:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.9N 121.8W | 80 mph | 979 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 7 mph |
| 41 | October 7, 09:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.6N 121.2W | 80 mph | 979 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 7 mph |
| 40 | October 7, 03:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.4N 120.4W | 80 mph | 979 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 6 mph |
| 39 | October 6, 21:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.5N 120.1W | 80 mph | 979 mb | Toward the west at 7 mph |
| 38 | October 6, 15:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.5N 119.5W | 85 mph | 977 mb | Toward the west at 8 mph |
| 37 | October 6, 09:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.3N 118.6W | 85 mph | 976 mb | Toward the west at 8 mph |
| 36 | October 6, 03:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.4N 117.9W | 90 mph | 973 mb | Toward the west at 9 mph |
| 35 | October 5, 21:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.3N 117.1W | 90 mph | 973 mb | Toward the west at 8 mph |
| 34 | October 5, 15:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.4N 116.2W | 85 mph | 976 mb | Toward the west at 7 mph |
| 33 | October 5, 09:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.4N 115.6W | 90 mph | 970 mb | Toward the west at 8 mph |
| 32 | October 5, 03:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.2N 114.8W | 100 mph | 967 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 7 mph |
| 31 | October 4, 21:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.1N 114.3W | 105 mph | 965 mb | Toward the west at 6 mph |
| 30 | October 4, 15:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.2N 113.8W | 105 mph | 965 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 6 mph |
| 29 | October 4, 09:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.2N 113.2W | 100 mph | 968 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 5 mph |
| 28 | October 4, 03:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 20.0N 112.8W | 90 mph | 970 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 5 mph |
| 27 | October 3, 21:00 UTC | Hurricane Rachel | 19.8N 112.5W | 80 mph | 977 mb | Toward the west-northwest at 5 mph |
| Advisory | Issued | Headline |
|---|---|---|
| 58 | October 11, 14:42 UTC | This Is The Last Nhc Advisory On This System |
| 55A | October 10, 23:32 UTC | Rachel Holding Steady And Moving Quickly North-Northeastward |
| 55 | October 10, 20:48 UTC | Rachel Strengthens Slightly While Quickly Moving Northeastward |
| 54A | October 10, 17:39 UTC | Rachel Quickly Moving Northeastward |
| 53 | October 10, 08:52 UTC | Rachel Holding Steady While Accelerating Northeastward |
| 52A | October 10, 05:58 UTC | Rachel Strengthens Slightly |
| 51A | October 9, 23:45 UTC | Rachel Starting To Accelerate Toward Baja California |
| 50A | October 9, 17:42 UTC | Rachel Continues To Move Northeastward |
| 49 | October 9, 08:56 UTC | Rachel Weakens Slightly Now On A Northeastward Track |
| 48 | October 9, 02:44 UTC | Rachel Expected To Turn Northeastward Later Tonight |
| 47 | October 8, 20:51 UTC | Rachel Weakens Slightly |
| 46 | October 8, 14:45 UTC | Rachel Holds Steady Over The Eastern Pacific Ocean |
| 45 | October 8, 08:40 UTC | Rachel Now A Tropical Storm |
| 44 | October 8, 02:56 UTC | Rachel Weakens Slightly |
| 43 | October 7, 20:43 UTC | Rachel Maintains Hurricane Intensity |
| 42 | October 7, 14:52 UTC | Rachel Moves West-Northwestward Over The Eastern Pacific Ocean |
| 41 | October 7, 08:59 UTC | Rachel Holds Steady As It Continues Westward |
| 40 | October 7, 02:34 UTC | Rachel Holding Steady Over The Eastern Pacific |
| 39 | October 6, 20:30 UTC | Rachel Slightly Weaker |
| 38 | October 6, 14:45 UTC | Rachel Continues To Move Westward |
| 37 | October 6, 08:39 UTC | Rachel Weakens Slightly While Continuing Westward |
| 36 | October 6, 02:34 UTC | Rachel Moving Westward Over The Open Eastern Pacific Ocean |
| 35 | October 5, 20:32 UTC | Rachel Slightly Better Organized |
| 34 | October 5, 15:14 UTC | Rachel Slightly Weakens And Continues Westward |
| 33 | October 5, 08:38 UTC | Rachel A Little Weaker As It Continues To Move Westward |
| 32 | October 5, 02:33 UTC | Rachel Continues To Move Over The Open Eastern Pacific Ocean |
| 31 | October 4, 20:32 UTC | Rachel Maintaining Its Strength |
| 30 | October 4, 14:34 UTC | Rachel Strengthens A Little More |
| 28 | October 4, 02:52 UTC | Rachel Strengthens Slightly As It Continues West-Northwestward |
| 27 | October 3, 20:53 UTC | Rachel Continues Moving Slowly West-Northwest |