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Hurricane Isaias

Hurricane Isaias, October 6 to 11, 2026, Atlantic: its strongest winds of 120 mph, category 3, on October 9, its lowest pressure 959 mb; it traveled 1,445 miles. Landfall in Florida, October 10.

Where it went

Chart of Hurricane Isaias: the track it took, every place its advisories gave it coloured by its strength then, its landfall ringed, and each of the 20 official forecasts drawn faint from where it started110W105W100W95W90W85W80W75W70W65W20N25N30N35N40NOctober 6Isaias
The track Hurricane Isaias took, from its advisories, and each official forecast drawn faint from where it started. Point to a place for its time and winds.
Chart of Hurricane Isaias: the track it took, every place its advisories gave it coloured by its strength then, its landfall ringed, and each of the 20 official forecasts drawn faint from where it started100W95W90W85W80W75W20N25N30N35N40NOctober 6Isaias
The track Hurricane Isaias took, from its advisories, and each official forecast drawn faint from where it started. Point to a place for its time and winds.
  • Depression, under 39 mph
  • Tropical storm, 39 to 73 mph
  • Category 1, 74 to 95
  • Category 2, 96 to 110
  • Category 3, 111 to 129
  • Category 4, 130 to 156
  • Category 5, 157 or more
  • Track taken
  • Forecast track
  • Tropical storm force winds now
  • Hurricane force winds now
Landfall
Florida, 3 miles southeast of Cinco Bayou, October 10, about 01:00 UTC, a hurricane, winds near 100 mph
Its centre crossed
Florida October 10
Alabama October 10 to 11
Tennessee October 11
Kentucky October 11
Tropical storm force winds reached
Louisiana October 9 to 10
Florida October 9 to 10
Alabama October 9 to 10
Georgia October 9 to 10
Mississippi October 9 to 10
Hurricane force winds reached
Florida October 10
Alabama October 10

Read from the hurricane center's advisories against the coast the chart draws. A landfall is where the line between two places the advisories gave crosses the coast, its time and winds read between theirs. Tropical storm force winds are 39 mph or more, hurricane force 74 mph or more, as far as each advisory gave them reaching.

Strongest winds
120 mph, category 3, October 9, 15:00 UTC
Lowest pressure
959 mb, 28.32 inHg
Days
October 6 to 11, 2026
As a tropical or subtropical cyclone
3.5 days
Traveled
1,445 miles
Accumulated cyclone energy
6.8
Basin
Atlantic
Advisories
20

Its strength, day by day

The strongest winds of Hurricane Isaias, in mph, at each place its advisories gave it, October 6 to 11, 2026, with the winds where each category begins020406080100120140160mphOctober 7October 8October 9October 10October 11StormCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
The strongest winds of Hurricane Isaias, in mph, at each place its advisories gave it, October 6 to 11, 2026, with the winds where each category begins04080120160mphOctober 7October 8October 9October 10October 11StormCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
The lowest pressure at the centre of Hurricane Isaias, in millibars, at each of its advisories, October 6 to 11, 2026. Lower is stronger.9509609709809901,0001,0101,020mbOctober 7October 8October 9October 10October 11
The lowest pressure at the centre of Hurricane Isaias, in millibars, at each of its advisories, October 6 to 11, 2026. Lower is stronger.9409609801,0001,020mbOctober 7October 8October 9October 10October 11

How the forecasts did

Every forecast of Hurricane Isaias scored against where it went: the hurricane center's official forecast, Storm Station's own, and NOAA's models, each by its own name.

Track error of every forecast of Hurricane Isaias by hours ahead, in miles: the mean distance from where each forecast put the centre to where the storm was. Lower is closer.050100150miles12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 hOfficial forecast
Track error of every forecast of Hurricane Isaias by hours ahead, in miles: the mean distance from where each forecast put the centre to where the storm was. Lower is closer.050100150miles12 h36 h60 h120 hOfficial forecast
Track error, miles
Forecast12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Official forecast181222102884266841072--

Track error: how far each forecast put the centre from where the storm was, in miles, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.

Intensity error, mph
Forecast12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Official forecast4126108876124132--

Intensity error: how far each forecast's strongest winds were from the storm's, in mph, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.

How each is scored, as the hurricane center scores its own: against where its advisories put the storm at each six hours, and only while the storm was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Each model is taken from its run six hours before, carried to the hour and set on the storm's centre and winds then, as the hurricane center does with its own early models, so every forecast here was there when the official one was issued. Storm Station's is made from those models, never from the official forecast.

The advisories

Every forecast advisory, newest first
AdvisoryIssuedAsCentreWindsPressureMoving
20October 11, 15:00 UTCPost-Tropical Cyclone Isaias37.5N 84.0W25 mph1010 mbToward the east-northeast at 22 mph
19October 11, 09:00 UTCPost-Tropical Cyclone Isaias35.4N 85.9W25 mph1010 mbToward the northeast at 23 mph
18October 11, 03:00 UTCPost-Tropical Cyclone Isaias35.0N 86.7W25 mph1009 mbToward the northeast at 16 mph
17October 10, 21:00 UTCPost-Tropical Cyclone Isaias33.5N 86.9W30 mph1007 mbToward the north-northeast at 15 mph
16October 10, 15:00 UTCPost-Tropical Cyclone Isaias32.8N 86.8W35 mph1006 mbToward the north-northwest at 10 mph
15October 10, 09:00 UTCPost-Tropical Cyclone Isaias32.0N 86.5W35 mph1002 mbToward the north at 14 mph
14October 10, 03:00 UTCHurricane Isaias30.8N 86.5W90 mph982 mbToward the north at 20 mph
13October 9, 21:00 UTCMajor Hurricane Isaias29.2N 87.0W115 mph959 mbToward the north at 17 mph
12October 9, 15:00 UTCMajor Hurricane Isaias27.7N 87.3W120 mph959 mbToward the north-northeast at 16 mph
11October 9, 09:00 UTCHurricane Isaias26.4N 88.0W110 mph963 mbToward the north-northeast at 15 mph
10October 9, 03:00 UTCHurricane Isaias25.4N 88.4W105 mph969 mbToward the northeast at 14 mph
9October 8, 21:00 UTCHurricane Isaias24.4N 89.3W100 mph975 mbToward the northeast at 12 mph
8October 8, 15:00 UTCHurricane Isaias23.7N 90.2W85 mph975 mbToward the east-northeast at 10 mph
7October 8, 09:00 UTCHurricane Isaias23.3N 91.2W80 mph979 mbToward the east-northeast at 9 mph
6October 8, 03:00 UTCTropical Storm Isaias22.9N 91.9W70 mph988 mbToward the east-northeast at 9 mph
5October 7, 21:00 UTCTropical Storm Isaias22.7N 92.9W65 mph994 mbToward the east-northeast at 8 mph
4October 7, 15:00 UTCTropical Storm Isaias22.4N 93.6W45 mph1000 mbToward the east-northeast at 8 mph
3October 7, 09:00 UTCTropical Storm Isaias22.0N 94.1W40 mph1004 mbToward the east-northeast at 8 mph
2October 7, 03:00 UTCTropical Depression Nine22.1N 95.0W35 mph1005 mbToward the east at 5 mph
1October 6, 21:00 UTCTropical Depression Nine22.1N 95.6W35 mph1007 mbToward the east at 5 mph
Each public advisory's headline, newest first
AdvisoryIssuedHeadline
16October 10, 15:34 UTCFlash Flooding Risk Continues With Isaias
15October 10, 08:43 UTCFlash Flooding Risk Continues With Isaias
14AOctober 10, 05:52 UTCIsaias Moving Over Southern Alabama
14October 10, 02:45 UTCIsaias Moving Over The Western Florida Panhandle
13AOctober 9, 23:49 UTCIsaias Nearing Landfall In The Western Florida Panhandle
13October 9, 20:52 UTCResidents Should Be Seeking Safe Shelter
11AOctober 9, 11:57 UTCIsaias On The Cusp Of Major Hurricane Strength
11October 9, 08:57 UTCIsaias Strengthening
10AOctober 9, 05:52 UTCBoth Noaa And Air Force Hurricane Hunters Flying Inside Isaias
10October 9, 02:49 UTCStorm Surge And Hurricane Warnings Remain In Effect
9October 8, 20:57 UTCHurricane Hunters Find That Isaias Now Has 100 Mph Winds
8AOctober 8, 17:54 UTCIsaias Expected To Strengthen Further
8October 8, 14:56 UTCIsaias Stronger
7AOctober 8, 11:54 UTCHurricane Hunters Currently Investigating Isaias
6AOctober 8, 05:41 UTCAdditional Intensification Expected
6October 8, 02:51 UTCIsaias Nearing Hurricane Strength
5AOctober 7, 23:54 UTCAir Force Hurricane Hunters Currently Investigating Isaias
4AOctober 7, 17:53 UTCNoaa Hurricane Hunters Find Isaias Gathering Strength
3October 7, 08:52 UTCDepression Becomes Tropical Storm Isaias
2October 7, 02:54 UTCTropical Depression Forecast To Quickly Strengthen
1October 6, 20:38 UTCTropical Depression Forms Over The Gulf Of America

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